David Senra · JA + tiny EN

Appleが殺せなかった会社——Spotify共同CEOグスタフ・セーデルストローム

The Company Apple Couldn't Kill | Spotify Co-CEO Gustav Söderström

英語はYouTube自動字幕ベース。日本語は学習用の整文対話。一次情報は動画。

センラグスタフ
FAQ 一覧 YouTube
センラ#1

今朝、ダニエル・エクにテキストしたんだ。「グスタフと収録する。20年近く知ってるよね。何を聞くべき?」って。返ってきたのが、「CEOになるためにどう準備したか、かなり珍しいことをしたから聞いて」だった。何が起きた?

EN

So, I text Daniel E this morning. I was like, "Hey, I'm recording with Gustaf. You've known him for, you know, two decades. Tell me what I should ask him." And he goes, "Ask him to tell you how he prepared for the CEO role. We did something quite unusual. Can you describe what happened?"

グスタフ#2

ダニエルは準備をとても大事にする。衝動的な決定はしない人で、これも長く彼の中で育った判断だと思う。すでに約3年前、彼は僕とアレックス・ノードストロームに「共同プレジデントになって、Spotifyの日常を回し始めてほしい」と言った。

彼はまだCEOのままだった。でも週単位、月単位で事業を任せるロープを、だんだん長くしてくれた。実際にCEOを引き継ぐ段階になったとき、その部分はもう体で覚えていた。丸3年、フルのP&Lとバランスシートを回してきた。一方で、まだ学ぶことは多かった。PR、政府対応、会社の顔になること——それまでダニエル単独の責任だった領域だ。

でも事業の引き継ぎ自体には、十分準備できていた。それはダニエル独特だと思う。彼のもとでほぼ18年働いた。たぶん、もうダニエル以外のボスの下では働かない。良いボスもそうでないボスもいたが、ダニエルは「良い方」だ。最初から信じられないほど委任する。2008〜2009年にSpotifyに入ったとき、アメリカ進出の話があって、当時のFacebook(メタ)のザッカーバーグと深い連携をやりたかった。入社したばかりの僕に、ダニエルは「行って、ザッカーバーグと話して、セットアップしてきて」と言った。

新人にその信頼は重い。でもずっとそうやって委任する人だ。だからほぼ18年ここにいる。毎年ほぼ新しい仕事をもらう感覚がある。3年前に始まった共同プレジデントのパートナーシップも、その一連で、アレックスと僕が事業全体を担ってみる旅だった。実際、会社の回し方は、ダニエルのやり方から完全に変えた。

EN

Daniel's very big on preparing. You know, Daniel, he's not very rationous decisions. And so, this was one of those decisions as well that I think grew with him for a long time. So already about three years ago, he asked me and Alex Nordstrom to step up and become co-presidents and sort of start to run the the day-to-day of Spotify for him. He was still the CEO and so he's been gradually like giving us more and more rope to to run the the business day to week to week and then monthto month. So when it actually came to sort of taking over CEOs, we already knew that part like by heart and we had ran it for 3 years, the full the full PNA and balance sheet and so forth. And then there was still a lot of new stuff to learn. You know, all the stuff that that was Daniel's responsibility alone, like, you know, PR, government, being the public face of the company. But we were very well prepared for taking over the business. I think that's unique with Daniel. I worked for Daniel for almost 18 years. And um I don't think I'll work for anyone except Daniel again. I've had both great bosses and not so great bosses. Daniel is the is the great one. and uh he's incredibly uh delegating you know already from the start. I remember when I joined Spotify was back in 2008 2009 and then we were going to go to the US and um Daniel uh knew u suck that meta then Facebook and we wanted to do this pretty deep integration with him and yeah I was new on the job at Spotify and Daniel just said like can you just go there and like talk to Zuck and met them like over Facebook at the time and like set this up. I'm like that's a lot of trust for someone who's new. So he's always been like super delegating and [snorts] that is also I think why I've stuck around for almost 18 years because you get you get so much respons responsibility. It's like you get a new job almost every year. And so this like coco or or co-president partnership that he started 3 years ago was one of those journeys where you know Alex and I got to step up and try taking on the full business. We actually changed completely how we run the company from the way Daniel runs it.

センラ#3

もう少し聞かせて。

EN

Say more about that.

グスタフ#4

組織モデルそのものについては、僕が考えた話じゃない。スティーブン・シノフスキーが何度も言っているように、勝ちきれない——正しい組織モデルはない。Amazonはある形で組織して兆ドル級、Appleは別の形で兆ドル級、イーロンはまた別で兆ドル企業を出す。正しい道は一つじゃない。自分の性格に合うものを選ぶだけだ。

組織はかなり性格ベースだと思う。ダニエルはとても特定の性格で、典型的な「アルファ雄」創業者ではない。だからこの種の事業で成功した一因でもある。Spotifyはハードコアな技術革新をするテック企業でもあるが、同時にメディア企業で、音楽レーベル、書籍出版社、ポッドキャスト出版社——想像どおり大きな人格が揃う業界と仕事する。

チームをまとめ、世界水準の技術を作りつつ、大きな人格たちを一緒に働かせ、個人でも集団でもやりたくなかったことをやらせる必要があった。どうやったかは今も完全にはわからないが、少なくとも力でねじ伏せるやり方ではなかった。脅威にならず、とても論理的で、謙虚——でもアメリカ人は特に、謙虚さを弱さと間違えやすい。

逆だ。彼は異常なほど粘り強い。決して諦めない。そのリーダーシップが会社を形作った。利点はたくさんある。一方で僕が意図的に違うやり方にしたのは、ダニエルが大好きな「星型」の一対一だ。同じテーマでも、僕と別会議、アレックスとビジネス側で別会議、PRやファイナンスとも別々——全員を同じ部屋に入れる会議は好まない。フラストレーションも出る。僕にはこう言った、アレックスには別の言い方をした、二人が会うと食い違う、また彼を呼ぶ——でも彼は星型が好きだ。アレックスと僕は、まったく違う選択をした。

会社全体を同期させることにした。ざっくり言えば、僕がプロダクトと技術を、アレックスがビジネスとコンテンツを担う。分業して征服する方が効率的だが、同期が崩れるコストがある。泳法のレーンを分けて並走するのではなく、僕が「シンクロナイズド・スイミング」と呼ぶやり方——一緒に泳ぐ。競泳よりずっと難しい。失敗すると見苦しいが、うまくいくと美しい。だから、僕が直属とプロダクト技術を話し、彼が直属とビジネスコンテンツを話し、現場のどこかでぶつかる、という普通の会社のやり方をやめた。各自のリーダーシップ会議を持たない。SVP全員がいる、たった一つの会議にする。

毎週火曜、Eチームという3時間の会議を、マーケティング、広告、サブスク、プロダクト・技術の全機能のSVPと一緒にやる。

EN

You know when it comes to organizational models in themselves I this is not something I came up with. I think you know Steven Sowski said this a bunch of you just can't win. There's no organizational model you know there are many and they all work like Amazon is is organized in a certain way trillion dollar company. Apple in another way also trillion. Elon does his thing you know also produces trillion dollar companies. So there is no right way. You just have to pick one that fits your personality. So I actually think organizations are quite based on personalities. And Daniel has a very specific personality. I think he is not the typical sort of um I mean you know him well but he's not the typical sort of alpha male founder which I think uh is one of the reasons why it's so successful in this type of business because if you think about what Spotify is yes it's a it's a technology company doing sort of hardcore technology innovation but it's also a media company working in an industry with a bunch of of uh you know first music labels and then book publishers and and you know podcast publishers, some of these very very big personalities in the media business as you can imagine. So he needed to be able to both rally a team and build world-class technology, but also get all of these people with the big personalities to work together and get to do something that they didn't want to do individually and not as a group. And I still don't understand exactly how he managed to get all of these people to do sort of what he wanted, but it certainly wasn't through like alpha male force. It was through not being threatening, being very logical. Uh he's very humble, but I think uh maybe most, you know, Americans specifically can mistake humbleness for weakness. It's the opposite. He's insanely tenacious. Insanely tenacious. Just never gives up. So, so he has a very specific leadership style and and that shaped the company. And as I said, there are a bunch of incredible advantages to his leadership style. One thing that I think uh you know that I do choose to do differently is Daniel loves to to talk in a star pattern one-on-one with many people. So he would talk to me about something separate meeting then with Alex Nordstrom about something the same thing but from you know the business angle and then maybe with PR and finance he just talked in star patent he doesn't like to have meetings everyone in the room and that can be frustrating at time you know it's like he says something to me something to Alex and then Alex and I meet I'm like this is what we're going to do and Alex is like not quite that's not what he said to me and so then you know we go back and we call him out on it you know uh but he likes that star pattern Alex and I chose to do something very different. We chose to synchronize the whole company. And so you can think about Spotify as sort of a two function or. I run product and technology by and large. Alex runs sort of business and content by and large, but instead of sort of doing the divide and conquer, which is a good idea, you divide and conquer because it's more effective. Uh but it has the cost that you're you're unsynchronized. So instead of doing the divide and conquer in separate swim lanes, uh we do this thing which I've I've called synchronous synchronized swimming where we kind of swim together which is much harder to do than than competitive swimming. And when you mess it up, it is ugly to look at, but when you do it well, it's a beautiful thing to look at. So we decided to instead of having our the usual sort of you know I meet with my director reports and we talk about product and technology he meets with his and talks about business and content and then our people meet in the org somewhere and they fight it out which is how most companies work. We chose to say we're not going to have our own leadership meetings. We have a single one with all of our uh SVPs. So we have a single meeting every Tuesday called the E team for three hours with all the SVPs of of all the internal functions like you know marketing ads subs but also you know all the product and technology functions in the same meeting.

センラ#5

何人くらい?

EN

How many people are in this meeting?

グスタフ#6

だいたい14人だ。毎週、会社全体を通しで話す。機械学習のブロッカー、体験上の問題、ミュージックビデオ機能を出したいがライセンス交渉がアレックス側で止まっている——そういう話まで。以前、ダニエルの時代も含めて、「あの人にブロックされている」「その人はこの会議にいない」「じゃあオフラインで」が多すぎた。

「オフラインで」というフレーズにうんざりして、ルールを作った。もう「オフラインで」は禁止。全部の機能を代表する人がこの会議にいる。ライセンスで止まっているなら、ライセンスの人がテーブルの向かい側にいる。今ここで話せ。会社の運営を変え、同期型のオペレーションにした。時間は高い——14〜15人×週3時間。話題が全員に関係しない瞬間もある。コンテンツや広告戦略が長い回は、パーソナライズ担当には薄い。でも全部を話す。P&Lもバランスシートも機械学習の問題も。14人が、CEO視点の全体像を持つ。

EN

It's about 14 people.

センラ#7

「関係ない」という言葉について。ケリー・ジョンソンの自伝を読み終えたところだ。ロッキードのスカンクワークス。部門の分離を許さない——設計、製造、全部同じ。同じ文脈、同じ共有知識が欲しい、という話だ。

EN

Okay.

グスタフ#8

そう。ある意味、関係ある。時間軸の問題だ。体験側の人が広告スタックを深く理解しても、その瞬間は関係ないように見える。でもどう稼いでいるかを理解していると、将来のプロダクト判断が変わる。プロダクトには広告がある。マネタイズ戦略に反する決定をしにくくなる。

とても関係ある。ただ、より長い時間軸で関係ある。投資だと思っている。ただし逆張りだ。多くの人は「完全に関係ないと感じた瞬間に会議を出ろ」と言う。

EN

What happens is we meet every week to talk through the entire company. So we talk through you know machine learning problems that are blocking on someone experience problem problems where you know we want to ship this music video feature and so forth but often that music video feature is blocked maybe on a licensing discussion that sits in Alex's org. So the whole the whole reason for the ET meeting was that previously actually under Daniel's sort of tenure we were in so many meetings where someone said like well I'm blocked on that person in that or that person is not in the meeting. So, so, so people said, "Let's take it offline." And, and we got so tired of hearing this phrase, "Let's take it offline that we did meeting and we said, you're never allowed to say, let's take it offline again. Everyone that represents all functions should be in this one meeting so that when you say like I'm locked on licensing, well, licensing is right there across the table. Now, let's talk it out in real time." So, we changed how the company operates and we have this this um synchronized operating model that is expensive in time. you have, you know, 14 15 people times three hours per week. That's a lot of leadership time and the conversations are not relevant for everyone at some at every time. Sometimes we talk a lot about content that may be not that relevant or or ad strategy that may not be that relevant to someone in the personalization or but the cool thing is we talk about everything. We talk about P&Ls and balance sheets and we talk about machine learning um problems in there. So you have now 14 people that have the full CO perspective.

センラ#9

イーロンもそう言うよね。

EN

Yeah, I was going to say you use the word not relevant. I just finished reading um Kelly Johnson's autobiography. He's the one that did skunk works inside Lockheed and his whole thing it was like no separation between any department like engineering, designing, manufacturing, it's all the same thing. We're all working together. We all want the same uh amount like the same context, the same shared base of knowledge.

グスタフ#10

彼が間違っているとは言わない。地球上で最も成功した会社のいくつかを作った。ただアプローチが違う。僕らはこのやり方を選んだ。会社の完全な視点を持つシニア集団がいる。ライセンサーとの関係、契約、プロダクトの作り方——依存が多すぎて、Spotifyのようなプロダクトを分業征服するのは難しい。最終的に組織図はプロダクトに表れる、という真理がある。

EN

Yeah.

センラ#11

うん。

EN

So it's like it is kind of relevant.

グスタフ#12

僕らの体験戦略は一つ——スーパーアプリだ。まず音楽、それからポッドキャストと本、さらに他のものを一つのプロダクトに入れる。いちばんのリスクは、組織図を出荷してしまうこと。分業して並列に走らせると、最初の6ヶ月は気持ちいい。そのあと体験が崩れ始める。複雑さをユーザーに外注してしまい、内部で戦って単一体験にまとめないから。機能組織はリーダーシップとオーナーシップが明確だが、機能横断が難しい。マトリクスはユースケースに最適化するが、報告線が曖昧。事業部制はRiot Gamesみたいにゲーム単位で、技術プラットフォームを切り出す。Amazonもゲーム的な事業部+強い基盤に近い。そのスケールで、僕はかなりAppleに寄せた。表面の下は異常に複雑でも、一人の人が一人のために作ったように感じる——そこを解いたのがAppleだと思う。

EN

It's just a question of time scale. So this thing about, you know, the the person in experience understanding a lot about the ad stack, it won't seem that relevant right then, but then like the fact that this person understands how we make money is going to affect their product decisions in the future when they build a product because guess what? There are ads in the product. So now they're not going to make decisions that go against our monetization strategy.

センラ#13

Appleの運営をどう見ている? 外から見ると機能組織だよね。

EN

Um, so it is very relevant. It's just relevant on a longer time scale. So I think of it as investment but it is contrarian. I think many people would say like you should not sit in a meeting. I hear people saying like the second you're in a meeting you feel it's not fully relevant leave.

グスタフ#14

面白い。僕は一時期Yahooにいた。

EN

Elon says this right

センラ#15

どこ?

EN

and like I said he's not wrong. He's built some of the most successful companies on earth. It's just different approaches. We've chosen this approach. So we have a very senior group that has a complete perspective of the of the company and I think that's right for our company because there's so many dependencies between you know licensers and relationships we have and contracts we have and how we can build a product and you know all all of these things. It's very hard to divide and conquer a product like Spotify and and I think you know this is tr there's this truth out there that eventually your org chart shows up in your product.

グスタフ#16

Yahoo。会社を一社売った先だ。何も学ばなかったが、やってはいけないことはたくさん学んだ(笑)。当時もめちゃくちゃな会社だった。2年半でCEOが4人くらい。EVPやSVPが殺し合い、情報を隠し合う。紙の上ではAppleも、ああいうプロダクトを作れるポジションに見えない。機能リード同士がなぜ戦わないのか、いつも不思議だった。話を聞いてたどり着いた答えは、シニアリーダーシップの在職期間の長さだ。それはSpotifyでも内面化した原則の一つ。

長く一緒にいるから、機能リードが同期するやり方を見つけている。ハードがリードしてソフトとサービスが続くこともあれば、ソフトがリードすることもある。超高信頼がないと成立しない。スティーブ・ジョブズから続く文化だと思う。理論上、機能組織は政治に溶ける——在職と信頼がないと。

Spotifyでは、僕の下で14〜15年働いている人も多い。平均はたぶん7〜8年。だから機能組織が回る。リーダーシップに信頼がないと、機能組織は政治に溶けるだけだ。

EN

Yeah. And because we have a single experience strategy, our strategy is literally a super app. We try to build first music, then podcast and books and more things into a single product. I think our biggest risk is to ship the org chart. So if we divide it and set everyone just run in parallel, I think it will feel very good for about 6 months. Then the experience will just start crumbling because you're externalizing all that complexity to the user instead of taking the fight internally and coming up with like a single experience. So in terms of organizational models, you have all you know you have functional orgs where has the benefit of clear leadership, clear ownership but supposedly hard to cooperate when you want two functions to work together. You have the matrix or which has the benefit that it optimizes for sort of the use case but it's unclear even who you're reporting to. Then you have sort of the division based or like a riot games. You know you organize by game and you break out the technology platform it's into its own org. Amazon is actually kind of a gaming org like divisional with a strong platform underneath. And so on that scale, I've chosen to be actually very close to Apple because I think they cracked the problem of building something that is very very complex underneath the surface like insanely complex and it still feels like it was built sort of by a single person for a single person. So that's what

センラ#17

正しいやり方は一つじゃない、というさっきの話につながる。Mr. Beastとも同じ話をした。メディアではトップのクリエイティブ人材の統合と維持が難しい。本番スタッフではなく、いちばん才能のある上位5人——回転は多い? 彼はFoundersの大ファンで、いつも起業家史の話になる。面白いのは、ラリー・エリソンがOracle成功の秘密の一つを、プロダクトチームの核を10年〜15年、あるいは20年近く一緒に保ったことだと言っていた点だ。一方、ラリーがメンターしたイーロンは逆で、フレッシュブラッドが欲しい、人を回したいと言う。Oracleもイーロンも超成功している。

EN

Tell me how you think Apple's run. What I think is interesting about Apple is when I look at it from the outside, it's it's a functional org, right? And functional orgs. I used to work at Yahoo for a while.

グスタフ#18

まさにそれだ。勝ちきれない。負けを減らすことしかできない。組織原則はたくさんある。Yahooのあと「大きな組織では二度と働きたくない」と言っていた。30代でSpotifyに入り、何千人規模になるとは思っていなかった。結局ビッグオーグをやらざるを得なくなり、組織論をたくさん読んだ。当時よく読んだのがスティーブン・シノフスキーで、テーゼは「勝ちきれない。正しい組織はない」。ある型で組織すると何かが得意で何かが下手になる。下手な方を見てマトリクスに切り替え、今度は別のものが下手になる。次元を選ぶしかない。

Spotifyではこう言った。最良は、会社にとって重要なことに最適化し、重要でないことには平均以下でいいと認めること。最悪は、重要でないことに強く、重要なことに弱いこと。何が重要かを見極め、それに最適化し、他は平均で飲む。

僕らが最適化したものの一つが、単一体験だ。何十億ものことをする一つの体験をうまく作る。裏側はさらに複雑で、ユーザーはほとんど気づかない。音楽はロイヤリティプール——固定プールからのパーセンテージ。ポッドキャストは広告。Spotifyで何かをクリックすると、裏側で全く違うビジネスモデルが走る。異常に複雑だ。

EN

At where?

センラ#19

本が大好きで、仕事として読むし、Audibleにも何百冊もある。ダニエルに聞いたことがある。なぜ誰も「この本が好き→再生」をやらなかったのか。Audibleみたいに5分聴いてクレジット、というぎこちなさではなく。裏側の複雑さについても説明してくれた。

EN

At Yahoo. I sold one of my companies there.

グスタフ#20

裏側はとても複雑なモデルだ。

EN

And what I thought I didn't learn anything there, but I learned a lot about what not to do. It [laughter] was a completely messed up company back then as well. I think I had four cos in like two and a half years or something. But all the EVPs and SD, they fought each other to the death and try to hide information from each other. So supposedly on paper I think Apple should not be very well positioned to be able to build that kind of product. I always marvel that why aren't those functional leads just fighting each other? That's what usually happens. The only answer I've come to as I've spoken to people there is that it actually has to do with tenure of leadership which is one of the principles I've also tried to internalize Spotify. So they have very long tenure at the at the senior leadership which means that these functional leads have found a way to work together to synchronize. So sometimes it's it's the hardware function that innovates and takes the lead and then you know software and services follow and sometimes it's a software function that takes the lead and they follow. That only works if you have super high trust in the leadership which which I think stems all the way back from from Steve Jobs and they managed to to keep that but in theory I think functional orgs tend to dissolve into politics

センラ#21

特にスーパーアプリを設計しているから。3つの別アプリなら、また別チームで並列に走らせられる。単一体験に最適化している。でも、ノー​​スターはあると思う。ストックホルムに14ヶ月で4回くらい行っている。最高の創業者は、人生のミッションをほんの数語で説明できる。Appleの話が出たから、スティーブ・ジョブズ。3語——insanely great products。25歳のときも、死の間際も同じ。重要だったものがわかる。内部で言っているかは別として、アレックスやダニエルや君と話して感じるのは、組織原則が「time well spent(時間をよく使ったと感じられること)」だということだ。

EN

without the tenure without the key. So at Spotify, most of the people that work for me, many have worked for me for 14, 15 years. I think the average is maybe seven, eight years. And then then it works to have a functional or if you don't have trust in the leadership, I think functional orgs just dissolve into into politics.

グスタフ#22

何にフォーカスし何に最適化するかを見ると、戦略レンズ、ビジネスレンズ、感情レンズがある。戦略レンズは、世界最大の課題がディストリビューションになると、かなり前に見ていたことだ。iPhoneが出たころはディストリビューションが無料に感じられた。App Storeで毎日トップを見ていた。それは止まった。Facebookのインストール広告も消えた。ポッドキャストという第二プロダクトに入るとき、別アプリの方が組織としては楽だ——分業して並列に走れる。でも最大の問題は体験設計か、それともディストリビューションか。App Storeを見ると、Overcastなど本当に良いポッドキャストアプリが少なくとも7つ、たぶん10近くあった。

利用を見ると、Apple Podcastsがまだ98.5%くらいだった。問題は「十分良いプロダクトがない」ことではなく、「届かない」ことだった。だから単一アプリの痛みと複雑さを引き受けて、当時すでに3億人規模のユーザーに届ける利益を取った。痛みとコストをどこかに置き、別の場所で利益を取る。ソフトウェアならユースケースに適応できるはずだ、という当時は逆張りの考え方だった。オーディオブックでも同じ。戦略レンズが一つ。

第二に、優先順位を付けるとき、自分たちや出版社・レーベルよりユーザーを優先する。コンシューマー体験を優先する。

EN

I want to tell you about the presenting sponsor of this podcast, RAMP. I have been reading a lot about [music] SpaceX lately. SpaceX is one of the most valuable private businesses in the world and one of the main themes in the history [music] of SpaceX is constantly attacking and questioning your cost. Ramp helps many of the most innovative businesses in the world do exactly that. The median company running on ramp cuts their expenses by 5%. And one thing SpaceX has demonstrated is that a religious dedication to controlling costs can help actually increase revenue because you can pursue opportunities you couldn't otherwise. [music] And we see that in the ramp data too. The median company running on ramp also grows their revenue by 16%. So when you're running your business on ramp and your competitors are not, you have a massive competitive advantage that compounds over time. Ramp is the only platform designed to make your finance team faster and happier. Many of the top founders and CEOs I know run their business on ramp. I [music] run my business on RAMP and you should too. Go to ramp.com to learn how it can help your business save time, save money, and grow revenue. That is ramp.com. This speaks to your previous statement that there's not one right way to do it. There's multiple different ways. I just had this conversation with Mr. Beast and we talked about this and cuz you know I was like very curious especially in media like your top creative talent is so hard to to manage and to integrate to keep. I was like do you have a lot of turnover on I'm not talking about like the people on the production. I mean your actual your top five most talented people. There's a lot of turnover there. And um he's a huge fan of founders. And so we talk about entrepreneur history every time we we we speak. And I was like what's interesting to me is you take Larry Ellison who he believed that one of the secrets of success Oracle is the fact that they kept I think he said the core kernel of the product team together for like two decades or something like that or maybe decade and a half. And you take Elon Musk who again Larry mentored. Elon says that you know one of the few people he goes to for advice is actually Larry Ellison who says the opposite. He's like I want fresh blood. I want to keep turning through people as possible. It's like, oh, it's like Oracle's super successful. Elon is super successful.

センラ#23

「自分たちよりユーザーを優先する」はすごく大事だ。数ヶ月前、スウェーデンで一緒にレーシングして、休憩でランチをした。僕、君、ダニエル、そしてPrima Materiaのピア。君は超競争的だよね。女の子にレーシングで負けた気分はどうだった?(笑)

EN

Exactly.

グスタフ#24

ピアに負けて最高だった。彼女はすごいドライバーだ。完全に妥当な負け。僕が何でもするくらい好きな人たちの一人で、Prima Materiaチーム全体が好きだ。

EN

I think this is the whole thing. You can't you can't win. You can only not lose as much. So the way I think about it, you have a bunch of organizational principles and as I said as I joined Spotify and had to like when I was at Yahoo, I said I never want to work in a big or

センラ#25

そこで哲学がわかった。前にも長いランチをした。テック業界で君たちが特別で、SpotifyがAIチャットに「スマホのベストアプリ」と聞くと上位に入る理由だと思う。ダークなエンゲージメント・パターンを今すぐ入れれば、利用時間もリテンションもユーザーも増やせる——でもユーザーには良くない、という話をした。

EN

Yeah.

グスタフ#26

それが指針だ。「ユーザーを気にかける」とは何か。体験を気にかけることもできるが、もっと深い意味では、彼らが君のやったことをどう感じるかだ。Spotifyは音楽から始めた意味で運が良かったとも言える。音楽はほぼ誰にとっても unambiguously 良いものだ。悪い音楽はあるかもしれないが、音楽が世界に悪いと感じる人は少ない。総アドレス可能市場も巨大で、ソーシャルをやらない人はいても、音楽をやらない人はほぼいない。

とてもポジティブな空間から始めた。意図的だったと思う。ダニエルは音楽に情熱があり、意味のあることをしたかった。運だけではない。今やっていることも、世界やヨーロッパにとって良い方向で、ただのお金以上の領域だ。

事故ではないと思う。それでも「運が良かった」とも言える。でも気づいた——喜びをたくさん運んでいる、これは大事だ。次に何をするか見るとき、ポッドキャストを見た。ネットのパターンはすでに注意時間が短くなる一方で、世界は地獄行きに見えた。でもポッドキャストには、長い深い議論がある。完全な文で話し、アイデアを説明し、必ずしも攻撃されず、反論できる。これは世界にとって良い、と思った。どれだけ大きくなるかはわからず、賭けが必要だったが、ビジネス機会でもあり世界にも良い、というレンズでSpotifyに組み込んだ。オーディオブックも同じ。本は世界で最も重要なものの一つだと信じているし、ビジネスとしても良い。スウェーデンはメディア習慣が進んでいて、オーディオブックがすでに大きい。市場に対する確信が高かった。time well spent と自分たち・ユーザーが考えるものに入り続けてきたが、外部では最近まで戦略として十分言語化していなかった。

EN

I joined Spotify when I was like 30 something. I never expected it to get to thousands. Eventually I had to do the big or thing. And then I try to read a lot about organizational principles and models and and I think at the time and I read a lot of Steven Senowski.

センラ#27

内部では戦略として言っていた?

EN

Yeah.

グスタフ#28

長い間、内部戦略は「no regrets(後悔なし)」だった。外部にはほとんど言っていない。no regrets が最善の言い方かはわからない。

EN

And and his I think the thesis is you can't win. There is no right org. And companies they sit with one type of org and then you're going to be good at something and terrible at something. People look at the terrible thing and say like well if we flipped to like a matrix or we' be great at this. They flip now they're great at this and terrible at the old thing. You just you just have to choose dimensions. So what we did at Spotify was we said you have we have to choose like the best outcome is that you're optimized for the thing that is important for the company and you suck at the thing that is not as important.

センラ#29

低いバーだよね(笑)。

EN

The worst outcome is you're really good at the non-important thing and you suck at the important thing.

グスタフ#30

何度も「本当に no regrets か?」と聞いてきた。由来は面白い。第三者を通じて匿名でユーザー調査をいつもする。誰を代表しているか見せずに「このメディアサービスをどう思うか」と聞く。本音が取れる。競合との比較もそうやって理解する。大きなメディアプラットフォーム横断で調査してもらった。

「Spotifyで過ごした時間をどう感じるか」を聞いた。YouTube、Apple Music、Amazon、TikTokなども。同時に逆の質問もした。「あとからどれくらい後悔したか」。戻ってきた結果で驚いたことが二つ。一つはあまり驚きではなかった——調査したプラットフォームの中で、僕らはインターネット上で最も後悔の少ないコンテンツ側だった。裏返すと、time well spent の最上位。Gen Zは、過ごした時間のほぼ90%をあとからとても良く感じると言う。

驚いたのは逆側だ。どのプラットフォームとは名指ししないが、多くの巨大プラットフォームで、人々は過ごした時間のほぼ60%以上を後悔していた。若い人たちだ。その調査の前、僕は高エンゲージメントだから好きでいるのだろう、楽しんでいるのだろうと誤って思っていた。聞いてみたら「閉じ込められている。時間に対してひどい気持ちだ」だった。

そこを勘違いしていた。好きでいるのではなく、ただ非常にキャプティブなのだ。内部でしばらく言い続けてきたことを、実際の戦略にしようと決めた——インターネット上で最も time well spent な場所の一つであること。何か新しいことを見るとき、たとえば今フィットネスの話をしている。なぜか。ワークアウトや運動をあとから後悔する人はほとんどいないからだ。

EN

So like figure out what's important then optimize for that and just accept that you're going to be average at the others. And so one thing we chose to optimize for was the single experience. We're really good at building a single experience that actually does a billion different things and most people don't even realize that on the back end it's even more complicated because you have a music business that is a royalty pool like so it's percentages out of a fixed pool music business that has a very different structure podcast business that has ads. So when you click something in Spotify it triggers all kinds of different business models like on the back end it is insanely complicated.

センラ#31

フィットネスって何?

EN

I'm I'm a huge obviously love to read. I read books for professionally for a living, but I also have hundreds of audio books on Audible. And I remember asking D like how the hell like why did no one think like oh I like this book just press play it to go instead of like a five minute like audible like I can listen for 5 minutes I have to do the credits like awkward and I was like how the hell did you do that on the back end? He was explaining to me like the complexity on the back end too.

グスタフ#32

いくつかの会社と提携を発表したし、もっと投資している。Spotifyユーザーのほぼ70%が、Spotifyでワークアウトしている。フィットネスアプリとしてもっと良くすることに投資している。音楽、ポッドキャスト、本と同じ系統で深めている。

EN

Yeah it's a very complicated model on the back end

センラ#33

どんな形になる? 今朝パートナーのロブがセントラルパークを走りながらSpotifyを聴いていた。

EN

especially because you guys are designing this super app though.

グスタフ#34

数週間後に出てくる話で、Investor Dayで話す内容に近い。僕はランナーで、ランニングが好きだ。Spotifyで走る人は多いし、自分でプレイリストを作る。すぐに可能にしたいことの一つは、Spotifyにこう言うことだ——AIの良いユースケースだと思う——「8分マイル用のランニングプレイリストが欲しい。自分のテイストで、ダウンビートが両足か片足に合うように。毎週更新して」。かなり複雑なタスクだ。

まず8分マイルが何を意味するか計算する。平均身長ならだいたい毎分165歩くらい、とか。160か、その半分の80の曲を探す——毎ステップか、隔ステップ。そのままでは曲は少ないので、範囲を広げ、正確に160や80にスピードを上げ下げし、完璧なビートマッチでつなぎ、インターバルに入る・スローにする、といった実況を重ねる。そういう体験を作っている。フィットネスを深める、という意味だ。no regrets 領域の一例だ。

EN

Exactly.

センラ#35

ジムやランで1時間過ごしたあと、70%後悔する人はいない(笑)。

EN

Let me if it was three different apps you could have again you could have had like different teams running in parallel. So, you're optimizing for a a a single um experience, but do you have I feel you have an organizing principle like a northstar and this is why I spend so much time and I really admire like I've been to Stockholm like I think four times in the last like 14 months because I I think of like um the best founders usually can explain just a handful of words like what what their life's mission is. So like we we mentioned you mentioned Apple. Let's talk about Steve Jobs. Steve Jobs did it in three words. He said insanely great products. You could hear him when he was 25. He talked about insanely great products when he was dying. Insanely the great products. You want to make insanely great products, then you come with me. But you knew what was important to him.

グスタフ#36

しない。指針になってきた。面白いのは、僕は50歳で、人生で面白いことをたくさんしてきた。何に人生を使うか決めないといけない。個人として良く感じ、誇りに思えることに使いたい。人間が本当に良く感じるのは、他の人への奉仕になっているときだ。君は哲学が好きだよね。何千年も前からある真実で、今も、これからも真実だ。

EN

And I feel I don't know if you guys do this internally, but

センラ#37

あそこにいるミラン(Spotifyの人)と、来る直前に話していた。ビジネスチャートに僕の番組が二つある、と。新しいショーは中毒的で眠れないくらい興奮する。利己的な教育の一形態だ。でもFoundersが人生の仕事だと思っている。出すとき、世界に良いとわかっている。クソみたいなポッドキャスト・スロップは作らない。娯楽も欲しいが、核は偉大なことを成し遂げた人から刺激と教育を受けてほしいこと。あなたにもできる、という点だ。世界に良い。金に縛られていない。金は後からついてくる。良いものを出すことだけを気にしている。歴史上の哲学者もそこに着く。問題は、人生のどれだけ遅く着くかだ。君は早い方だと思う。

僕は32年で道を見つけ、さらに5年半苦しんでやっと持続できた。今は毎朝迷いがない。古い本から次の世代の起業家に渡せる洞察を掘り、こういう会話をする。収録前にも言ったが、「聴衆向けの完璧な質問」ではなく、利己的に聞いている。同じ興味を持つ1000万人のデイビッドがいるとわかっている。君は50歳で、スタートアップを売って大企業に18年いてCEOになる——特異な人生経験だ、とダニエルとも話した。

AIの話をしたいが——

EN

I've talked to, you know, Alex and Daniel and you a bunch. I feel your organizing principle is time well spent.

グスタフ#38

前の話で一つ。time well spent は言いやすい。誰もが自分は世界に良いことをしていると説得する。していない人さえも。自分に完全に正直に「何も良いことをしていない」と言う人は少ない。自分を納得させる。

EN

If you look at what we focus on and what we optimize for, you have a strategic lens, then you have sort of a a business lens, and then an emotional lens. So the strategic lens is really that we saw a long time ago that the biggest challenge in the world is going to be distribution. You know when when the iPhone came out, it felt like distribution was free. People went to the app store every day and looked for like you know what's the top charting free and paid app that stopped working. There was a lot of distribution through Facebook with all the install ads. That all went away. So from a strategic point of view when we were going into podcast which was like the first second product we did we looked at that and said okay there again it's all a trade-off we could do a separate app would be easier for us as an org because we can divide the org and people can run in parallel and so forth but is that the biggest problem to design the experience or is the biggest problem actually getting distribution and then we looked at in the app store and I think there was maybe um it's probably probably 10, but at least seven really good podcast apps in there like Overcast and all these apps. And when we looked at their usage, I think Apple podcast was still like 98 and a half percent.

センラ#39

例がある。ゴットファーザーで、ソラッツォがマーロン・ブランドのところに来て、ブランドが「他人の稼ぎ方に口は出さないが、子供にドラッグを売る仕事には関われない」と言う。子供たちにも教える原則の一つは「自分のことに集中しろ」だ。でも誰かが予測市場の深いパートナーシップを持ちかけてきた。電話で自己紹介が「最大真理追求マシンを作っている」だった。社名は言わないが、サイトを開いたら最初に出てきたのが、ペイトリオッツの試合のコイントスの勝敗。ただギャンブルして金を稼ぎたいなら尊重する。でも「最大真理追求」みたいな別の話はするな。

EN

So like the problem wasn't that there wasn't a good enough podcast product. The problem was that they didn't get a distribution. So we chose to take that pain of doing a single app with all the complexity comes with that for the benefit of reaching what was then already 300 and something million users maybe. But it was much harder. We we chose like pain and cost somewhere to get benefit somewhere else and we said like you know it's just software it should be able to adapt to the use case right which was contrarian at the time and then with audio books we do the same thing so so um there was a strategic lens to that second thing we care deeply about is when we have to prioritize we do prioritize the user over ourselves over uh publishers and labels we do prioritize the the consumer experience

グスタフ#40

それが言いたいことだ。ほぼ全員が自分をそう納得させる。じゃあ僕らにクソをつけよう——実際に意味があるのか? 意味があるなら、あることから手を引く必要がある。最近の決定の一つは、古いポッドキャストがビデオ化していく流れに僕らも乗ったことだ。

EN

you saying we prioritize the user over ourselves is super important. So, a few months ago, we were racing cars together in Sweden. We and then we took a break from racing cars and we had lunch. It was me, you, Daniel, and Pia, who works at Prima Material. One, I know you're super competitive. How did you feel about losing racing to a girl, by the way,

センラ#41

僕がビデオをやる唯一の理由は、君たちにしつこく言われたから(笑)。

EN

I felt great about losing to Pia. She's an awesome driver.

グスタフ#42

すごく人気だが問題があった。特に親が、time well spent だと思っていた場所に見たくない動画が入り、time well spent が下がったと感じた。エンゲージメントには動画が良いが、人々は自分の時間の質が下がったと感じる。だからアンチ・エンゲージメントの決定をした。誰でも動画をオフにして聴くだけにできる。子供だけでなく自分のためにも。その人からのエンゲージメントは下がるかもしれない。原則を持つなら、結果を飲まないといけない。

それでも良いビジネスだと思う。売上のほぼ90%は、体験に金を払うサブスクライバーからだ。財布で毎月投票するとき、エンゲージメントや滞在時間ではなく、感じる価値に払う。time well spent で価値が高いと感じれば払い続ける。自分のお金で払うモデルは、ユーザーにとって良いことに揃いやすい。純広告モデルだと、どんなコストでも滞在時間を最大化するインセンティブがはっきりある。売上の大半がサブスクだから、その圧力がないのは贅沢だ。ビジネスモデルに運よく・ある程度意図的に乗ったのかもしれない。

EN

She's It was very well deserved.

センラ#43

聞こうとしていた。サブスクを選んだとき、そこまで予測できなかったはずだ。でも最初のプロダクトが音楽だから、サブスクでなければならなかった。

EN

She's one of my favorite people. I do anything for Prima Betteria. Uh I I love the entire team there. Um, but the com this is where I I kind of understood your philosophy because we I also previously had multiple conversations. We had this really long lunch one time. But this is what I think you guys are special in the technology industry and why I like spending time and and Spotify's you know what out of the whatever your favorite AI chatbot like chat app. It's like what's the best apps on your phone like Spotify is in the top two you know for for anybody that that uses it. But it's that

グスタフ#44

そうだ。今は見えているので倍賭けしている。Spotifyにとって正しい賭けだと思う。人々は、時間が奪われ、人生のコントロールが減っていることへの自覚が強まっている。

それがAIの話につながる。今はAIへのネガティブが多いが、理解できるし理由もある。生成AIは、これまでにないほど中毒性の高いアルゴリズムになりうる。深く理解できるから、暗闇のポテンシャルがある。でもデュアルユースだ。別の使い方もできる。僕らが選んでいるのは、たとえばアルゴリズムへのコントロールをユーザーに返すことだ。

「デイビッド、LLMであなたはこうだと思う。聴取から音楽的にはこう、興味のあるポッドキャストはこれ、オーディオブックはこれ」と見せる。ボックスを置いて、「違う。やっていることと、なりたいことは違う。もっと伝記が欲しい。クラシックに戻りたい。普段はEDMばかり聴いているから」と言える。するとクラシックが来る。生成AIのいちばん良い説明は、ついにコンピュータが英語を理解したことだ。昔はGitHub上の約100万人の開発者だけがコンピュータと話せた。今は全員できる。コンシューマー企業は、誰もが平易な英語で話せるようにすべきだ。

Spotifyでは、ユーザーリサーチチームが10人くらいと深く話し、それを数百万に当てはめようとしていた。761百万人全員と、いつも高忠実度の英語で話し、体験が彼らの望みに合わせて適応したらどうか。アルゴリズムへのコントロールを消費者に返すのが今のミッションで、逆張りだが正しい賭けだと思う。

EN

you we talked at lunch. You knew there's there's dark engagement patterns and you can put into Spotify right now

センラ#45

君や僕はコントロールが欲しいだろうが、7億人のユーザーのうち、実際に何割がそう思う? 多くの人は「やっておいて」が欲しいのでは。

EN

that would have people on use the app more would have more retention maybe bring more users but it's not good for them.

グスタフ#46

間違っていない。世界のすべてはだいたいべき乗則だ。音楽の聴取量も、少し聴く人と極端に聴く人がいる。プレイリストも同じ。多くの人は1〜2本——Liked Songsと少しのインディー。何百本も持つ人もいる。

Spotifyがパーソナライズとレコメンドに強くなった理由の一つは、何十億ものユーザープレイリスト——この曲はこの曲と合う、と人が丁寧に並べたデータだ。異常に価値がある。ただし偏りが強く、何百万はいるが何億ではない少数が大量に仕事をし、他の人に恩恵が行く。新譜やバックカタログを追わない人でも、その仕事からすごいレコメンドを得た。ここでも同じになる。実際すでにそうだ。Spotifyにたくさん話しかけ、「違う、ダメ、こうあるべき」と言う人が自分の体験を良くする。似た人で時間や知識がない人は、同じことを欲しがる可能性が高い。その人たちが恩恵を受ける。

EN

Yeah. So, so this is our our guiding principle like what does it mean to to care about the user? um you can care about the user experience, but if you really care about the user in some deeper way, h it would be how they feel about what you do. And [snorts] what happened with Spotify is you can say that we lucked into it because we started in music. Music is by most people considered almost an unequivocal good. Maybe there's bad music somewhere, but you know, very few people feel that music is a bad thing for the world. And and it also happens to have a very large town. There is almost no one that doesn't listen to music. It's like bigger than social networking, right? Not everyone does social networking, but everyone does music.

センラ#47

みんな何でも自分で作る、という話があるが、僕はそう思わない。ソーシャル投稿は写真と2ボタンで終わるのに、1%が作り、次の層がキュレートし、85〜90%は潜るだけ、という人間の姿に近いと思う。

EN

So, we started in this space which was very positive for the world

グスタフ#48

有名な 1% / 9% / 90%——1%が作り、9%がキュレートし、90%が消費する。だいたい本当で、べき乗則の話だ。でも作る1%とキュレートする9%は、消費する90%にとって信じられないほど価値がある。そして「彼らのためにやってあげる」ことを可能にする。それが多くの人間が欲しいものだ。

EN

and I think that was a deliberate decision from Daniel. He was passionate about music. He wanted to do something was meaningful. I don't think it was luck because if you look at the things he's doing now, it's in that same space of being good for the for for the world and you know for Europe etc. rather than just more money.

センラ#49

文脈を一つ。僕のSpotifyラップでポッドキャスト4位だったのが、君がナレーションした Spotify: A Product Story(2021〜23年ごろ、数年かけて出た)だ。創業者にいつも言う——なぜ自社の歴史を語らないのか。ショーン・パーカーもダニエルも、数年しか関わっていない人も含めて当時の人が出ている。2021〜22年ごろのエピソードでは、すでにAIの使い方に丸ごと割いている。60年来の話でも、当時は今ほど人が話していなかった。2021〜22年と今日で、AIの見方はどう変わった?

EN

Yeah. So I don't think it was an accident, but still you could say we lucked into it. But then we realized that this is this is important. We're bringing a lot of joy. So when we looked at what to do next, we looked at podcasts and we saw this thing where there was this, you know, the pattern on the internet already back then was shorter and shorter attention spans. And it looked like the world was lost, like this is just going to go to hell. But then you looked at podcast and you said no at the same time there are these very long deep discussions where people speak in full sentences get to explain full ideas. They don't necessarily get get attacked. They get to retort and so forth. We said that we think this is actually good for the world. We didn't know how big it was going to be. Uh so we had to take a chance on that but we thought it was a business opportunity and good for the world. That that's our lens. So we went into that and we built podcast into into Spotify. And it was the same thing with audiobooks. We think that books is one of the most important things that happen in the world and I'm very passionate about books but it's also a good business opportunity and we were fortunate to be in Sweden that for some reason tends to be pretty advanced in media habits. So in Sweden audiobooks is already very big things. We had quite high conviction over the market. So, so we've kept going into these things that are considered by ourselves and users time well spent, but we never fully articulated that as a strategy externally. We've only recently started talking about it.

グスタフ#50

AIへの関心は、多くの人と同じく子供のころからで、エンジニアになり、大学は90年代末。ニューラルネットはあったがコンピュータが弱くて何もできなかった。いわゆるITに入り、自分の会社をやり、Spotifyに来た。Spotifyにはすでに巨大な音楽プレイリスト・データセットがあった。特にエリック・バーナードソンという才能ある人が、2009年当時、世界最大級のHadoopクラスタで協調フィルタリングの機械学習をしていた。スケールとアルゴリズムが超クールで、久しぶりにその領域に興奮し戻った。

その後DeepMindが強化学習でDeep Q-Networkを出し、Atariを倒し始めた。当時はおもちゃに見えたが、人間はどう動くのかという哲学的関心で、すでにかなりピルを飲んでいた。90年代には信じにくかったが、人工ニューロンのモデルとして計算論的かもしれない、という感覚があった。DeepMindのデミスやデイヴィッド・シルバーらのチームで、より複雑な問題を扱うスケーリングが見えた。深くハマり、家でまたコーディングし、休暇や夜に自分でRNNやLSTM、GRUを書いた。社内のレコメンドは旧来のMLを続けつつ、2017年6月ごろの transformer 論文——Attention Is All You Need——を最初の数日で読んで完全に吹き飛んだ。聞きたい人みんなに話した。すでに準備ができていた。

指数曲線を本気で信じ、何度か検証していれば、いずれコンピュータは話し、推論し、人と会話できる、と外挿できる。かなり早くから準備した。Sonanticという会社を買い、音声を安く作れるようにした。今はネットで音声は買えるが分単位で高い。7億人に1日数分の音声を出すと破産する。LLMが台本を賢く書ける前から、別技術で超安価に音声を出す会社を買い、曲線を待つのではなく先に交わる賭けをした。

個人的なAIへの関心があり、データがあるSpotifyにいる幸運があり、見えたら賭けざるを得ない。関心は個人的で、SpotifyはAIの哲学的側面——人間であるとは何か——にできるだけ近づく言い訳でもある。

EN

Did you articulate it as a strategy internally though?

センラ#51

もう少し。

EN

For a long time, we've had a strategy called no regrets, but we we largely haven't said that externally. And I don't know if no regrets is the best. Uh

グスタフ#52

人生を通じて、子供のころから考えていた。知ったときに言葉を失う問題がいくつかあった。一つは、体の原子の99%くらいは7年ごとに入れ替わる、と誰かに言われたことだ。「え? じゃあ同じ人間じゃない。原子が自分だと思っていたのに、7年後には別人だと言うのか。じゃあ自分は何だ?」

岩は原子そのものだ。7年後も同じ原子。でもあなたと僕は、ほとんどの原子は破壊も生成もされず、ナポレオンの原子が体のどこかにあるかもしれないし、死ねば別の誰かに行く。原子の配置が、ごく短い時間「あなた」になるだけだ。構造が自分で、構造の別の言い方が情報だ、と気づいた。じゃあDNAか。設計図で原子を並べる。でもピアノを長く弾けば脳の音楽領域が発達し、言語が得意なら言語領域が、有名な例ではロンドンのタクシー運転手が脳スキャンで3D空間の中枢が肥大する。考えることが原子のパターンを動かす。原子すら入れ替わる。原子でもその構造でもなく、情報処理のパターンそのものが自分だ。処理する原子は入れ替わる。唯一定数なのは処理パターンだ。

「俺は情報処理だ」——頭がおかしくなった。でも慣れた。情報処理なら永遠に生きられるかもしれない。思考の仕方が自分なら、別の原子で実体化してもいい。子供にその思考の一部が移れば、32%がまだ生きている。レイ・カーツワイルならコンピュータに移して永遠に、と言う。原子ではなく思考が本当の自分だ。おそらく僕らは計算論的存在・情報処理だ——それが最初にAIに入った理由だ。でも大学では——

EN

I think time, you know, it's like that's a low bar. [laughter] Uh but we've said it again and again like is this really no regrets? What that comes from is interesting. We surveyed our users uh through a third party anonymously. We do that all the time. Someone comes and asks you what do you think of these media service without seeing who they represent. So you get the truth. That's how we understand how we're doing versus competitors and so forth. So we had them survey across all the big media platforms. Uh and this is where the no regret come from. We asked the question like how do you feel about the time you spent

センラ#53

20年以上前。

EN

using Spotify? uh all of them the time you spend on on on you know Spotify, YouTube, Apple Music, Amazon, Tik Tok, all of them just understand how you felt about it.

グスタフ#54

それ以上。90年代末の大学では何もできなかった。コンピュータが弱く、数ノードのニューラルネットはのろくて印象に残らず、「これは違う」となった。

EN

But then we also asked the opposite question. How much of your time did you regret afterwards? And what was interesting was when we got that survey back, there were two things that surprised me. One didn't surprise me so much. We were actually the lowest regret content sort of on the internet in terms of the the the platforms we asked for. Or if you flip it around, some of the time most well spent on the internet with, you know, Gen C saying that they they value almost uh n almost 90% of the time they spend, they feel very good about it afterwards. So that was good. But what surprised me was the the opposite without naming which ones on many of the big platforms people people regretted almost 60% of the time they spent or more. And these were young people, you know. And what shocked me was before I saw that survey, I knew that these were insanely high engagement platforms, but I kind of mistakenly thought that they were there because they wanted to be there. I'm like, they're probably enjoying it. Turns out when you ask them, they're like, "No, I'm trapped. I feel horrible about the time I spend."

センラ#55

何十年も考えていて、スタートアップ売却→巨大データ→技術が追いつく——Netflixに次ぐ世界2位のサブスク基盤だと聞いているが合ってる?

EN

So, I was mistaken in thinking that, you know, they were there and they they loved the time. It's just very very captivating. So, then we decided, okay, we've had this as a saying internally for some time. Let's just make it an actual strategy uh to be some of the most time well spent on the internet. And so when we look at something, you know, we're talking about fitness now, for example. Why? Because we think very few people regret doing a workout or being

グスタフ#56

そうだ。

EN

What do you mean you're talking about fitness?

センラ#57

大学時代から考えていたことに技術が追いついた。

EN

We just announced some partnerships with with a bunch of companies and uh we're investing in in more, you know, three quarters of of u almost 70% of people on Spotify work out with Spotify. So, we're investing more into fitness into becoming a even better fitness app. So, so this is one area kind of like you know music, podcast, books. We're just investing more in it.

グスタフ#58

一日中これらを学び、業界最高の人と働き、世界を変えている人たちに会って愚問をぶつけられる幸運な立場だ。情熱があることを、世界にまだ良いと思える領域で、AIの良い結果——ユーザーコントロールを返すなど——に舵を切れる。

EN

What would that look like? My partner Rob was running through Central Park this morning listening to Spotify. So, he was exercising while using your app.

センラ#59

そこを飛ばしたくない。プライベートでも、大企業でプロダクトを設計する人たちと話している。中には「エンゲージメントは最高、メンタルヘルスには最悪」とわかったテストをプッシュする人もいる。狂っている。収録前に話したけど、馬鹿みたいに聞こえるかもしれないが、スティーブ・ジョブズが生きていてほしいと本気で思う。技術は好きだ。でも全員が使う規模の技術を作る人には、人間性を高める道具を作ってほしい。置き換えたり、馬鹿にしたり、太らせたり、スマホに吸い込んで鬱にしたりしないでほしい。今はそうなっている部分が多い。

EN

Okay. So, this is going to come out in a few weeks. So, I'll tell you kind of what we're going to talk about

グスタフ#60

うん。

EN

at at Investor Day. Um I'm a runner. I'm passionate about running and we see a lot of people running with Spotify and they make their own playlists. One of the things I want to be possible that's going to be possible very soon is that you go into Spotify, you just tell Spotify, this is one of the good use cases of AI. I think you say to Spotify, you know, I want um running playlist for like an 8 minute mile and I want it to be in my taste, but I want it to be on the down beat either on my on both my feet or just one of my feet, right? Uh and I want you to update it weekly. It's a pretty complicated task. So then what what we want to be able to do is to first calculate like an 8 minute mile. What does that mean? Well, roughly if your average height maybe 165 steps per minute or something like that. Okay. Now we got to go and find music in in either 160 or half of that 80. So it's either in every downstep or every other downstep. Okay. You're going to find some music there but not a lot. So now you want to look a bit broader. And then you actually want to speed them up or slow them down to exactly 160 or exactly 80. And then you actually want to mix them together with perfect beat match transitions, right? And then you actually want to overlay commentary on top of it saying like now you're going to go into the interval part. And now you're going to slow down and so forth. So these are the kinds of experience that that we're building. This is what I mean with going deeper into fitness. That's one of those no regrets area or or time.

センラ#61

さっきの話——ポッドキャストは世界に良いものが急成長している一方で、15秒・5秒・1秒スクロールで脳を壊している人もいる。ジェフ・ベゾスの株主書簡でKindleを発明した理由が、短い注意時間への anecdot e(対抗策)で、人が読まなくなることを心配していた、というのを思い出した。

EN

No one spends an hour in the gym or an hour running.

グスタフ#62

Kindleには深く感銘を受けている。パッシブ画面などの技術だけじゃない。見落としがちなのはビジネスモデル革新だ。whisper sync で、裏で静かに更新する。一定量のモバイルデータを買っていた。偉大なプロダクトだ。

EN

No. come out and feel like, "Oh my god, I regret 70% of that." [laughter]

センラ#63

Kindleのビジネスモデル革新を説明して。

EN

You don't.

グスタフ#64

普通なら、本を更新するために月額モバイル契約を別途取れ、と楽な設計になりがちだ。彼らはキャリアと契約し、平均的な本のサイズを計算し、データが事実上ハードウェア価格に含まれる固定費のディールをした。一回のコストで買い、魔法のように更新される。当時は魔法だった。プロダクト革新の上にビジネスモデル革新がある。僕が情熱を持つところだ。技術は変化の必要条件だが十分条件ではない。技術だけで海賊行為のような混乱も起こせる。本当に変わるのは、新しい技術を、しばしば逆張りの新しいビジネスモデルと結婚させたときだ。Spotifyの物語は、所有に対するアクセスだ。だからスティーブ・ジョブズが生きていてほしいとも思うし、いない方がよかったとも思う——何度も僕らを殺そうとしたから(笑)。

EN

So, so it's been our our um guiding principle. And what I think is interesting about it is, you know, I'm 50. I've done a lot of interesting things in my life. You got to figure out what you actually want to spend your life on, right? And I want to spend my life on on doing something that I feel good about personally and that I kind of feel proud of. you feel good, but you know, like the way a human is going to feel good is if what they're doing is actually in service of other people. This is a I know you're into philosophy. This is a humans for yourself thousands of years ago. This is not a new idea. It's something that was true thousand years ago. It's true today. It will be true now. Me and uh Milan, who's sitting over there, I was talking to uh he works at Spotify right before you came. I was talking to him about this cuz he's like, "You have two p two different podcasts on the business charts right now." And I was like, "Listen, this new show, I'm addicted to doing it. I can't sleep. I get wired from these conversations. I'm doing it selfishly. It's another form of education. But I really feel that like Founders Podcast is like my life's work. And the way I feel like when I put that out, I know it's good for the world. I know these conversations are good for the world. I was like, I'm not going to make … podcast slop. It's not I'm not trying I want it to be entertaining, but at the core, it's like I want you to be inspired and educated by these people that have accomplished great things. And then the the point was just like that knowing that like you can do it, too.

センラ#65

面白い。ジミー・アイオヴィーンをこの番組に出した。Defiant Ones が好きで、トップ3で会いたい人の一人だった。10回くらい見ている。今は近所の友人だ。彼は「殺すつもりだった」と言い張る。Appleに止められた、と。僕は「無理だろ。史上最も成功したコンシューマープロダクトを作った巨大企業の小さな一部だ。スウェーデンは500万人くらいで、君たちは小さい。生き残らなければ死ぬ側だった。Apple Musicがダメでも向こうは平気だった」と言う。ジョシュ・クシュナーの言葉で、経験・頭の良さ・欲しさなら、いちばん欲しがる人に賭けろ、というのがある。戦いが始まったとき、サブスクは300万か1000万か1500万くらいだったのに、君たちは彼らを煙に巻いた。

EN

Yeah.

グスタフ#66

当時、多くの人がとても怖がっていた。彼は伝説で、今も殺し屋だ。

EN

That is good for the world. I feel good doing that and it's not like a I like a I need to make certain it's it's not tied to anything else other than like it's not like oh I wouldn't do this if unless I can make X dollars like I don't give a … about that. I care the money will take care of itself. I care about putting out good things to the world.

センラ#67

引退した今でも、ダニエルとよく話すほど友人同士で、formidable だ。でも大きな会社側で、君たちは小さくて——

EN

And I think to your point everyone gets there and every philosopher in history got there. The question is just like how late in life do you get there? I think you got there a lot earlier than some people.

グスタフ#68

比較的小さなスウェーデンのスタートアップで、自分たちはプロダクトが得意だと思っている。世界で最も尊敬されるプロダクト会社と、最も憧れる人物スティーブ・ジョブズが「お前たちを潰しに行く」と言い、それだけでなくBeats Musicを買い、ドクター・ドレとジミー・アイオヴィーンを連れてきて「殺す」と内部会議で字義どおり言った。「6ヶ月やる」——ハードな時代だった。とても働いた(笑)。でもうまくいった。ああいう瞬間はいくつかあった。

EN

It took me 32 years to find my path and another five and a half of … struggling until it actually like could sustain me. And then now I wake up every day like I have no doubts about what I'm doing. I was like I'm going to build again. I'm mining these old books of somebody did something amazing for ideas and insights that we can push down to the next generation of entrepreneurs. And I'm having conversations like this where we talked before I was like everybody's like oh you know you you asked this perfect question for your audience like I'm having these conversations selfishly cuz I just know there's there's 10 million Davids listening to this that have the same interest that want to know what is in you. You you said you're 50. You've been working at you sold your first startup then you work you have such a singular life experience is what me and Daniel were talking about earlier like who the hell sells their startup works at a big company for 18 years then become CEO

センラ#69

いい言葉がある。Game of Thrones にハマっていて、「周縁にいる者がしばしば中心を支配する」という箴言だ。スウェーデンの小さな集団より周縁はなかった。

EN

it's a it's a different path it's an unusual path

グスタフ#70

潰されなかったには、きちんとした理由もあった。

EN

I want to talk about AI uh because

センラ#71

何だと思う?

EN

can you say something on the on the previous thing first

グスタフ#72

コンテンツ側はかなり心配していた。コンテンツとミュージシャンだけの勝負なら、米国で最大の訴求があるヒップホップと有力者たち、という構図だ。でも構造的な理由があった。戦略で3つに賭け、意図的にAppleへのカウンターポジションだった。一つはプレミアムと、本当に良い無料枠。Appleが製品を出しても広告は苦戦するだろうと見た。iAdもコントロールしすぎてうまくいかなかった。だから良い無料枠に力を入れた。第二はパーソナライズ。当時のAppleはデータにほぼ反対に近かった。レコメンドは上手くならないと賭け、それが未来だと信じた。第三はユビキティ。自社製品を優先し、Samsung TVやAndroidでは上手くならないと賭けた。

プレミアム、パーソナライズ、ユビキティ。かなり当たった。無料枠はラジオなどで一度やって引き、非Appleハードでは今も苦戦し、パーソナライズは僕らの方が上手いと言いたい。持ちこたえた戦略的理由は今もある。同時に、君の言う通り、これは選択ではなかった。死ぬか、背中を壁にしてやるかだった。

EN

what I think is interesting with this time well spent is

センラ#73

当時のApple Musicの優先度はわからないが、iPhoneより重要ではなかったのは確かだ(笑)。

EN

these things are sort of easy to say I think everyone convinces themselves that they're doing good for the world even the ones who don't because most you know it's very I think it's very hard to be honest with yourself. Totally honest and saying like I'm not actually doing anything good for the world. Very few people do that. They convince themselves.

センラ#74

みんなSpotifyは知っているが、君自身はまだポッドキャストが少ない。パトリックとの回は素晴らしかった。君について知っている、かなり珍しい話に入りたい。ソーシャルの危険の話をしたあと、君は自分用のAIエージェントを作っている。たとえばXの消費の仕方を説明して。

EN

That I want to talk about.

グスタフ#75

Spotifyでも進めていて、数週間前に「Save to Spotify」のようなものを出した。Claude Code や Codex などに、情報を集めさせ、ポッドキャスト台本を書かせ、音声を生成し、Spotifyに上げられる。ただしプライベートに。個人情報や、今日のインタビュー準備のようなものを全公開したくない。プライベート/パーソナル・ポッドキャストをサポートした。

僕がやるのは、エージェントに個人の文書や準備したいこと、Spotifyが聴取からかなりよく知る興味、他サービス上の関心を組み合わせ、世界で何が起きているかを見に行かせ、自分に深くパーソナルなアップデートを作らせることだ。ノイズや狂った部分を濾し、聞きたいものだけをくれる個人アルゴリズムだ。全ユーザーに渡したい種類のコントロールだが、今は手間をかけられる人なら持てるコントロールでもある。予想外だったが、この経路で音楽やポッドキャストをたくさん見つけた。フォローしている人たちの間で話題になっているものに濾される。たとえば君のエヴァン・スピーゲル回が何度も出てきて、「プロダクトの知恵がある、聴け」と個人ポッドキャストが言った。全部聴いた。とても良かった。リソースは限られていたがアイデアは全部あった、今はアイデアもリソースもある、という彼のフレーミングは盗みたい。

EN

Yeah.

センラ#76

エヴァンについて、時価総額の話をする人がいるが、僕は気にしない。真に差別化している。会ったあと勝ってほしいと思った。株が80%下がった、と言う人もいる。ChatGPTに「ジョブズは75%下落を何回経験した?」と聞いたら4回くらいだった。キャリアでは起きる。若い。次の10年を見よう。何十億人が毎日使うソーシャルのパターンを発明した——ストーリーズなど複数だ。1時間話を聞いても面白くないわけがない。

EN

So, we get obviously all these pitches and don't forget that hopefully don't forget the way you're thinking.

グスタフ#77

もちろん。好きだ。僕がプロダクト、彼がデザインで近いからかもしれないが、確実に好きだ。

EN

But like listen, no disrespect. One of my favorite movies is The Godfather. And one of my favorite scenes is where Slazzo goes to meet Marlon Brando and he's like, and Marlin's like, "Hey, it's none of my business how another man makes his living, but I can't get involved in that because, you know, you're dealing drugs to kids and it's not interesting to me." And so I feel the same way. It's like I mind, one of my principles I teach my kids is like number one, rule number two is like mind your own business. But I had somebody pitch me. They're like, "We want to partner, do a deep partnership as one of the prediction markets." And I'm on the phone with them and I didn't know anything about them, but the way they describe themselves, they're like, "We're building a maximum truth seeeking machine." And I pull up on my phone. I go to I'm not going to say the company. I type it in and I go, "Dude, the first thing on I see on your website is who's going to win the coin flip for the New York for the New England Patriots game." If you're just saying we want to … gamble and make a ton of money, I respect that. But don't give me this other … there. You're building maximum truth seeeking machines.

センラ#78

君について最も fascinate な点の一つで、やらない人が危ないのは、常にノイズを消そうとしていることだ。オーディオ化する前から、テキストでXの狂った部分や政治の喧嘩を剥がし、「気になる人は何を話しているか、コルチゾールを上げない話は何か」にしていた。

EN

Yeah. But that's my point. I think almost everyone has to convince themselves all of that. So so so to kind of call call … on us then does it actually mean anything uh to do this? Well it means you have to stay away from some things. So one decision that we did uh recently was you know how old podcasts are turning into video podcast and so we follow that.

グスタフ#79

エージェントに文字どおり頼む。rage bait を濾せ、クリックベイトを濾せ、政治を濾せ。今持てるユーザーコントロールで、まだほとんどの人が理解していない。複雑すぎるが、そのコントロールは持てる。多くの人は欲しいものをだいたい知っているが、瞬間に捕まる。欲しいものがあっても、目の前にキャンディを置かれれば取る。自分の未来を前もって決められるか——それがテイスト・プロファイルやエージェントのアイデアだ。僕は他の誰より優れていない。いつも捕まる。僕の特定の弱点はロードレイジだ。奇妙すぎて、何時間も見てしまう。普通で賢い人が人生を無駄にし、刑務所に行き、車に撃ち込んで子供を殺す。あとから見ると普通の人で、車の中でおかしくなる。だから「ロードレイジは見せるな」と言える。何が起きるかわかっているから。事前に決めた——premeditated media(計画的メディア)。誰もが少なくともアクセスできるべきだと思う。僕には効くし、多くの人にも効く。必要は小さくならず、大きくなる。だから良いビジネスでもあると思う。

EN

The only reason I do videos cuz you guys harassed me.

センラ#80

情報ダイエットの話だよね。思考そのものが自分だ、と。脳に人を入れるのは狂っている。昨日Mr. Beastが、若者はInstagramを持つべきじゃない、比較は喜びの泥棒で、ハイライトリールと比較し続ける、と言っていた。成功した人にいつも聞くのが、「誰が真実を言ってくれるか」だ。取り巻きの雲で知識が濾される人が多い。信頼できる人を探し、真実を言わせる。ダニエルがこの番組で言っていた話で、君がそういう一人だった。プロダクトを任せていてうまくいっていない、めちゃくちゃにしている、と横に呼んだ。彼は家に帰り、妻に「この男をクビにしないと」と言い(笑)、考えたあと「正しい。奉仕してくれた」となった。受け取れる人は少なく、だから彼は成功している。

EN

Exactly. [laughter] So they are very popular but there was a problem which was that you know a lot of people specifically parents who felt that you know they had this time well spent now they started seeing these videos in there that they didn't want to see there right so they felt that their time well spent was was going down and then if we were faced with the decision like video is good for engagement but these people feel it is not good for their time their time well spent. So we made the decision sort of the anti-engagement decision to allow people anyone to turn off video if they want to and and just listen not just for their kids but for for themselves. So and that that may mean that you know we take some engagement hit on that person. Um but so if you're going to have these principles you kind of have to live with them and they're going to have consequences. Now, we still think this is very good business because most of our revenue is from subscribers paying for their experience. You know, like almost 90% of the revenue. And I think that what you pay for when you vote with your wallet every month, you're not going to pay for your engagement or time spent. You're going to pay for the value you feel, right? If you feel that this was time well spent, if you feel that this was high value, you're going to say, "I want to pay for this." So I think when you pay with your own money um that is very very well aligned with optimizing what is good for the user whereas if in a pure engage in a pure you know advertising based model your incentives are clearly to maximize time spent at any cost. So I think it's a luxury for us because most of our revenue come from subscription to not have that pressure. Maybe we locked into that business model maybe with some deliberate.

グスタフ#81

そうだ。だから大事なのは、誰がそれを君にしてくれるかだ。僕も同じバージョンをやる。長い在職に戻る。長く一緒にいるが、大きな意見の食い違いがある人たちがいる。僕に反論しても、怒っても、結果はつかない、とわかっている。その安心は長くかかる。特にコーポレート・アメリカから来た人に、初日に立てと期待できない。普通はクビになる。

EN

That's what I was going to ask you. There's no way you could have predicted that when you chose a subscription model but it had to be subscription model based on your very first product which is music.

センラ#82

そういえば茶帯だっけ? 締められる。

EN

Yes. So now that we see it uh we're doubling down on it and and I think it's going to be the right bet for Spotify. I think people are getting more and more aware of how how their time is getting captured and how they have less and less control over their life. This this by the way so leads us into into AI which everyone is talking about and you know there's a lot of negativity around AI now which I understand and for good reasons. There is a promise for generative AI to be the most addictive algorithm you have ever heard of because now we can understand you so deeply. there is potential for for darkness over there, right? But what what I'm trying to say, what we're trying to say is like there is, but it's a dual news technology. You could choose to do something else with generative AI. And so what we're choosing to do for example is to give back users control over the AL algorithm. So the other thing you can do is which we're doing. So you can say like, hey David, here's who we think you are using LLMs and yeah, based on all your listening, this is who we think you are musically. this is the podcast we think you're you're interested in. These are the audio books that we think you're interested in. Then we can put a book a box where you can say like no you're wrong. May maybe that's what I do but it's not what I want to be you know I want much more I want more even more biographies you know I want to get back into classical music which is something I've tried. Uh but but because I listen to mostly EDM at most mostly EDM. So now I can go in and say like now I want to be I want to have classical music and now I get classical music. The best way I think to describe generative AI is that finally computers understand English. Like it used to be a small population of about 1 million developers on GitHub who could talk to computers. Now we all can. And so I think consumer companies could and should give everyone access to talk to them in plain English. So it means that at Spotify we used to have these uh these user research teams that sat with you know 10 users trying to understand deeply what they felt and what they did. Then we took those 10 users and tried to apply that you know million users. What if you could do that deep user research with every single user all 761 million of them all the time because you talk to them and they talk back in English high fidelity and the experience just adapts to what they want. So my mission now is to sort of give back control to to consumers over these over these algorithms and it's contrarian but I think it's the right bet.

グスタフ#83

いや青帯。締められる人はたくさんいる。リスキーな道だ(笑)。周りの人たちが「違う。わかっていない」と言える快適さを持っていると信じたいし、実際そうしている。僕はいつも自分を制御できるわけではない。情熱的になると「違う、それはバカだ」と言う。でも結果がないと知っているから、彼らは言う。一対一や少人数でそうしたい。大きな会議で長く一緒の人が「それはバカなアイデアだ」と言うと、僕は「お前のアイデアがバカだ」と返し、周りは「これから全員クビだ」と思う。その信頼は時間でしか作れない。同じバージョンを持っている。

EN

People like you and I will probably want more control but like you have 700 million users like what percentage of them do you actually think I I feel like people just want you to do it for them.

センラ#84

冒頭の在職の話で、Mr. Beastの才能の回転について最後まで言えなかった。オペレーションを回す男は一緒に住んでいたくらいで、「1万時間じゃなく3万時間話した」と言う。10本同時に回すセットにBeastが来ると、タイラーはもう判断の理由とショットの意図を全部知っていて、説明の前に答えがある。スタートレックのバルカンのマインドメールドだ。100時間では得られない、と。

EN

No, you're not wrong. I think there's everything in the world is sort of a power law right of whether it's um music listening some people listen a little and then some people listen extremely much. Everything is a power law. But I think what is interesting what Spotify has gained from if you look at playlisting for example, some people playlist a lot. Most people have one playlist, maybe they're liked songs, maybe two playlist, you know, some indie favorites. Some people have like hundreds of playlist. So sort of the story of Spotify and why we got good at personalization and recommendation in the first place was that we had like I don't know 10 billion user playlist, which is people carefully saying this track goes well with this track goes well with this track. It's an incredibly valuable data set. But to your point, it was heavily skewed. It was a few use, not a few millions, but not hundreds of millions that did a lot of work that benefited the others. Those people saying these tracks go well together meant that the others who weren't that into music, they didn't keep up with the new with the new releases or the back catalog, they got amazing recommendations from the work of these people. And so I think that's going to be true here as well. And and in fact, I know it is true. We see some people engaging a lot talking to Spotify all the time saying that no, that's wrong, that's bad. You should be like this. They're doing a lot of work. They're making their Spotify better for themselves, but then we know that someone else who looks very similar to that, but doesn't have the time or knowledge to do all of that actually probably want the same thing

グスタフ#85

在職の利益の一つは信頼だ。成功でうぬぼれるリスクはあるが、人は君を正直に保つ。もう一つは効率——文脈を渡しすぎなくていい。欠点はイーロンの逆で、フレッシュブラッドが減ること。老人集団だけにならないよう注意が要る。新規採用もする。利益はこの二つ——効率と信頼。

EN

and they can benefit from the other.

センラ#86

老人集団には本当に注意が要る。ウォルト・ディズニーの才能ある9人のアニメーター——死後は「old men」と呼ばれた。ピクサー創業者のエド・キャットマルに話を聞いた。若い技術者が新しいアニメ手法を売り込みに行き、ウォルトは死に、老人たちは「コンピュータにそんなことはできない」と拒んだ。新しいアイデアを拒むのはとても人間的だ。

EN

So, they benefit from the other.

グスタフ#87

また同じだ。何かに最適化したら、他のリスクを緩和する。在職に最適化するなら、フレッシュブラッド不足とキャリアラダーの遅さを緩和する。才能ある人が「10年かかる」と感じないよう、露出を与えるプログラムが要る。

EN

The analogy I had cuz everybody's like, "Oh, you know, everybody's going to be building everything they want." I was like, "I don't think

センラ#88

グスタフはCEOまで18年かかった。

EN

they're going to build." I tell me if this is a stupid analogy. I'm curious your personal opinion on this, but like if you even look at like how easy is it to post to social media? You you put a picture or like two buttons and you're done. And it's something like you know 90% comes from 1% and then you have the next 10% do and then like 90 85 or 90% just lurk they do nothing but I feel like that's a good representation of humanity where like 90% is not or not build anything

グスタフ#89

そう(笑)。長い。やっと着いた。でも同じ原則だ。

EN

there's this famous one 90 right 1% creates 9% curates and 90% consumes okay

センラ#90

じゃあ新しい才能はどう取る? ShopifyのトビーやRampのカリームと同じで、スパイク採用でいい、という考えがあるよね。トビー回も最高だった。20周年を迎えた巨大プラットフォームで、若い才能をどう入れる?

EN

right something like that and I think that's largely true that's what I mean with the with the power law but as I said that 1% that creates and that 9% that curates it give incredibly valuable for the other 90% that consumes

グスタフ#91

いくつかある。ジュニアを取り、Rising Stars プログラムがある。マネージャに「これがライジングスター」と特定してもらい、毎年20〜30人。インド、米国、ドイツなど各市場に出て問題を学び、アレックスと座り、僕と座る。社内MBAみたいにビジネス・技術・プロダクトを学び、全社に関係を作る。12ヶ月後、世界中のSpotifyの誰でも知っているから何でも進められる。有機的に気づかれてゆっくり上がるより加速する。

それが一つ。時々はシニアを採る必要もある。AI——当時は機械学習——が動き始めたとき、ディープラーニングが弱く、古い行列分解はわかっていた。ボストンのThe Echo Nestを買収し、MITに近く、その分野の才能を入れ基盤を作った。完全に新しいスキル——早くcryptoに強くなりたい、など——は、組織が学ぶのを何年も待てないことがある。買収やシニア採用で、在職の問題を緩和する。やや強引な比喩だが、AppleがML/AIで少し遅れた理由の一つは、平均年齢がそれを見るには少し高かったことかもしれない。組織の中には知っている人がいたはずだが、もっと早くシニアに取るべきだった。長い在職の欠点も緩和しないといけない。

EN

and then allows you to do it for them which I think is what most humans want.

センラ#92

夜眠れなくなることは? Spotifyのいちばん弱いところは?

EN

Deal is how the best founders turn the world into their talent pool. I've been studying how history's greatest founders operate for a decade [music] and one thing they all have in common is they understand that recruiting and hiring the very best talent is your most important priority. A players recognize other A players which is why top companies like Ramp, Shopify, 11 Labs, Uber, and Door Dash all use Deal. Many of the top founders I know have personally invested in deal after using their product. And what they [music] discovered is that deal is the best company in the world at building infrastructure for global hiring. Deal will help your business hire, pay, and manage any worker anywhere in the [music] world. So you can retain the best talent anywhere and spend the rest of your time focusing [music] on what you do best, delivering value to your customers. The founder of 11 Labs has a great description [music] of the value deal can give your company. He said, "We built 11 Labs to break down language and communication barriers. [music] With deal enabling us to hire and support exceptional talent anywhere, we can accelerate [music] our innovation and bring more voices, stories, and ideas to every corner of the world. Deal is trusted by over 40,000 businesses. Learn how they can help your business today by going to deal.com/enra." That is deal.com/enra. There's some context I think people need here. Uh so the fourth most listened to on my Spotify rap for podcast was uh Spotify a product story which you narrate that came out in 2021 23 remember

グスタフ#93

夜眠れないのは、驚くことではないが、AIが極限で何を意味するかだ。メディア習慣はAIで変わるとかなり確信している。じっとしている選択肢はない。世界はマイクロ波のように動く——新しい技術が出て混乱が起き、新しいビジネスモデルが現れ、変わる。元祖Spotifyは、安いブロードバンドとPCの波に乗った。どこにでもあり、十分速くなったらファイルを所有しなくてもストリームできる。ダウンロード産業を壊すビジネスモデルを作った。数年安定したあとスマートフォンが来て、また全部変わった。PCを持たない人がいて、無料枠はPCだけだった。2008年ごろ携帯回線で曲をストリームすると開始に20秒、ブツ切れだった。また適応し、オフライン同期やモバイルのモデルを作った。

安定期もある。アナリストとして2015〜2025を予測するなら、モバイル・サブスク・広告の外挿でかなり当たった。でも10年ずらして2005〜2015をPCとネットの外挿にすると、スマホを逃し、Uberを逃し、世界を逃す。今はどの時代か。外挿で済む安定期か、マクロ変化か。全部が変わる側にいると思う。何が変わるかは言えないが、変わることはかなり確かだ。会社として怖いのは変化の時期だ。Spotifyがいちばん伸びたのはいつだと思う?

EN

something like that over a couple of years came out there long time ago

センラ#94

変化の時期。

EN

and it tells the history which I think more company I I tell I talk to founders about this all the time because like you essentially like why don't we just tell our own company history and then you interview the people that were there at the time like Sean Parker's in there Daniel X's there people that played a role even if they only played a role for a few years Yeah,

グスタフ#95

変化の時期だ。安定しているとシェアも安定し、食い合えない。変化にはシェアを失うリスクがある。同時に、変化を取り入れればシェアを食う最大の機会でもある。原則は、常に最初であれ。世界は変わる。受け入れて曲線の先に行け。新しいことをやる大きな機会の時期でもあり、常に考えていることでもある。

実際に何を意味し、正しい賭けは何か。ユーザーコントロールなどに賭けるのか、他は真逆に賭けるのか。夜眠れないのは、まだ変化の途中で、終わりが見えていないことだ。誰もどこに着くか正確には知らない。この時代のUberやAirbnbがいる。OpenAIやAnthropicやBookかもしれないし、違うかもしれない。まだ起きていないかもしれない。

EN

but you have entire episodes I think from 20 2021 or 2022 dedicated to how you're using Spotify, you know, people have been talking about AI for 60 years, but even back then way less people were talking about that now. Tell me the difference of how you view AI back then in 2021, 2022 to Spotify to today.

センラ#96

終わるのに完璧な場所だ。グスタフ、ありがとう。いつも話せて嬉しい。

EN

Yeah. So my interest in AI I think as many you know I I was always interested growing up and then became an engineer and so in university which was like in the late '9s um yeah I was interested in it there were neural networks back then but you can do anything computers were not powerful enough and then I went into what was called it right and I did my own companies and I started at Spotify and then when I came to Spotify we already had one of these large data sets of of music playlists and So uh there were some very talented people there specifically a guy named Eric Bernardson who at the time this is 2009 was doing machine learning uh something called collaborative filtering on what was the world's largest Hadoop clusters and I'm like this is super cool like this scale of data and these algorithms I hadn't been thinking about it for a long time so I got very inspired by that kind of got back into it and then what happened was deep mind started doing these uh reinforcement learning based things they had this thing called the deep Q network that started beating Atari games if you remember that

グスタフ#97

ありがとう。

EN

and it looked like a toy back then like everything does but I was I was so pilled already on on like the the idea of how do we actually work as humans from a philosophical point of view and I didn't have a good answer no one did but I had this this idea that maybe it is maybe it is computational because it was the model of the artificial neuron but it was hard to believe in the in the '9s with these like deep new networks from from Dennis and the and David Silver and the the whole deep mind team. H you could see the scaling of like it's it's handling more and more complex problems. So I got very deep into that. I went home and I started coding again and I did my own sort of recurrent neural networks and LSTM and GRUs and stuff just for fun, you know, during my vacations and evenings and nights and we kept doing our recommendations problem which was sort of old school AI which was called ML machine learning. But then when the the what is called the transformer paper came out in I think June of 2017. It was a paper called attention is all you need. I think I read it like in the first few days and I was completely blown away by it and I started talking to anyone who wanted to listen. So I was just primed for that and you know happening. So then we started investing quite aggressively towards this. I think you know if you extrapolate it out if you really believe in that exponential curve which I've tested a few times then eventually you know computers would be able to start talking to you and reason and you would be able to talk to computers. We started preparing for that quite [snorts] early. We bought this company called sonantic to be able to produce um voice. I mean you you can buy voice anywhere on the internet today but it's quite expensive per minute. So if you want to serve 700 million users with like a few minutes of voice per day, you're going to go bankrupt. So we bought this company producing voice very very cheaply with the different technology even before the LLMs were smart enough to produce the script for that voice because we just bet on you know intercepting that curve instead of waiting for it and then then building for it. So I think it comes from a personal interest of in AI and then a bit of luck being at a place like Spotify that had access to lots of data and then when you see it just you know have have to bet on it and and I think the interest is is a personal interest. Spotify is sort of my excuse to get as close as possible to to uh the philosophical side of AI sort of what it means to be a human. Mhm. two decades ago you built a neural network like a few nodes and it slowed to crawl and it was unimpressive and you're like no that can't be it Yes. Yeah. It's a good excuse to get to spend all my day thinking about learning about these things, working with the best people in the business. You know, I get I have the fortune of meeting all of these people that that are changing the world. I get to meet them and talk to them and ask my interesting stupid questions about, you know, things. So, it's just a fortunate position to be in to get to do something that you're passionate about. But I feel very lucky because I can do that, but I can do it in an area where I think it's still good for the world and I can have impact on I can steer this towards what I think is a good outcome of AI like giving back user control for example. I don't want to skip over that because I truly believe we've had enough private conversations and I know you talked to all the other like people designing products at all the big companies. We talked about this privately in the past and it's just like yet some of them, you know, have made decisions where they know, they have optimized. They're like, "Hey, we ran this test. This is great for engagement. It's terrible for the mental health." And they're like, "Push it." That's insane to me. That is insane. And this is what we were talking about before we started recording was like I told you it's like it sounds silly but like I deeply desire a world in which Steve Jobs is still alive because I obviously love technology but I I want the people building the technology that we all use on the scale that we all use it at to like build tool tools and that's all technology is that enhance humanity instead of trying to replace it or to make you dumber or fatter or just you know sucked into your phone and depressed which I feel a is a lot of what's going on now. Which is I think what you said earlier was like well podcast we have this thing growing massively that's good for the world assuming you were listening to the right podcast and you should be listening to David Sun and founders of course at the same time when these people are like destroying their brains in 15 20 second you know 5-second 1 second scrolling and it reminded me when you said that earlier I was like oh that you go back and read Jeff Bezos's shareholder letters he talks about why he invented the Kindle. He said the Kindle was an anecdote to short attention spans. He was worried that people weren't going to read anymore. Explain the the business model innovation on the Kindle. Well, normally you would have to pay for data if you know the if if you would have been lazy, which they weren't. You would have said like here's a here's a Kindle now go and buy a mobile subscription monthly for that for the books to update. Then what they did was they signed deals with these carriers. They calculated the average book size and they made a fixed cost deal where all the data sort of forever was included in the price of the hardware. They bought this thing for onetime cost and it just magically updates. At the time that was magic those good business model innovation on top of all the product innovation which is something I'm very passionate about. I believe that technology is necessary ingredient for change but not sufficient. I think you can cause havoc with technology like piracy but when things really change is when you take a new technology and marry it with a new often contrarian business model. This is the Spotify story of access versus versus ownership for example. Uh, which is by the way why I would also love Steve Jobs to be around, but also not because, you know, he tried to kill us many times. [laughter] Yeah. and then you just smoked them. cuz he was a legend. And he still is. He's a killer. He's a I mean, dude, But imagine that you're a fairly small Swedish startup and you think you're good at product and then the biggest most respected product company in the world and the person you see up look up to the most Steve Jobs says they're coming after you but not only that goes and buys beats music and brings in Dr. Draian Jimmy I like we're going to kill you. That's what they literally said in their internal meetings. They give us 6 months. It was uh those were hard times. we worked very hard [laughter] There's a great line though about this because if you think about Jimmy's experience in the the music industry is just fascinating. They tell the story that obviously documentary you know starting out sweeping the floor in the rec in the um the record plant and then uh you know becoming an engineer and then a producer and then one of the most successful creators of a a new record company and then building products like the guy the reason I I recommend you know people sending his stories cuz like the people that can succeed in so many different domains over multiple decades that's not luck there's something going on that they know Yeah, So, it had to be terrifying from from your end. But the the one thing I think of this great maximum from Game of Thrones, which I'm obsessed with, and it says those on the margins often come to control the center. And if you think about it, couldn't have been more marginal than these these group of Swedish guys in this tiny country trying to take over and build the company you guys built. What do you think they were? Well, I think the content side of the business was incredibly worried because because if it was if it was only about content and you know only about musicians, you had you know hip-hop which is the the you know has the largest appeal in the US and all these powerful people. But there were some structural reasons. One is when we created our strategy we bet on three things and they were all basically counter positions to Apple deliberately. One was premium. We believe that Apple would if they even did a product free product they would struggle to do advertising. They tried the IAD but they wanted so much control it didn't work. where I think to your point I don't know what prior Apple music was at the time but it was not more important than the iPhone for [laughter] sure. So this is something we're working on at uh at Spotify and we released this just a few weeks ago something called save to Spotify. when you sit in your your cloud code or codeex or something, you can just, you know, you can ask uh these agents to go out and look at information for you, write your podcast script and then generate a podcast and then we allow you to upload that to Spotify, but privately, right? Because you may put private information in there. Maybe you want to maybe you want to prep for your interview as I did today. I don't want that to be all over Spotify. So, we now support private podcast or personal podcasts. And so what I do is I use these agents and I take a combination of my personal information. So you know documents I have and things I want to prep for and then what I'm interested in based you know across my my different uh services all my interest Spotify knows my interest pretty well from all my listening goes out and looks at what hap what's happening in the world and then it gives me this this update that is deeply personal about what's happening in the world that I might be interested in. So, it's kind of like a personal algorithm that filters out a lot of of the noise and the the crazy that I don't want to hear and just gives me the stuff that I want to hear. This is the kind of user control that I would like to give every user, but it's the kind of user control that you can have now if you're prepared to to put in the work. And what's interesting is I didn't expect this, but um I found so much music and podcast through this. Then it's filtered to the people that I'm interested in that I that I follow on different social media and so forth. So it's the thing that is being talked about among the people I care about. So for example, your episode with Evan Spiegel came up again and again with lots of commentary in my personal podcast saying like this stuff this is really interesting for you. You should listen to this because there are product wisdoms in there and so forth. I listened to the whole episode which I really like by the way. I'm thinking about stealing his framing of like you know we used to have all the ideas but limited resources. Now we have all the ideas and all the resources. I really like that. He invented several of them, right? The disappearing image stories, like all of these. Of course. No, I I I like him. Maybe it's because I'm a product guy. He's a design guy, so close, but I I like him for sure. They shoot into cars and kill kids like Yeah. Premeditated Yeah. Something that just popped to mind when when you were uh speaking just now. I'm very curious like who influenced So, we're talking like essentially your information diet, right? And what you're letting into your mind, you talked about we literally are our thoughts. Like you're crazy to like let people get into your brain and affect you. And uh I was talking to Mr. beast about this yesterday where he's just like I don't think people should have Instagram cuz it's like it's just making all these young kids like comparison is the thief of joy and all they're doing all day long is comparing you know somebody else's highlight reel to them and it's just like very very bad for to let that into your brain. One of my favorite things, I think Daniel said it on this podcast last year where, you know, I I'm always curious when I get to meet people, especially in successful people, is like they who tells you the truth is a question I always ask cuz it's like very few. A lot of them kind of have like this almost like cloud of sycopants around them that are like filtering their knowledge that's getting into them. And what they'll do is like they'll seek out people they can trust and they'll tell them the truth. And I think he told the story of you being one of those people for him, for Daniel, because you pulled him aside, you're like, "Hey, you're running product." And you you're like not good at it. You're kind of … this up. And his response was he went home. I think he told his wife, he's like, "Oh my god, I have to fire this guy." [laughter] It was you. And then he goes then he thought about it. He goes, "Oh, he's right." It's like he just did me a service. Yes. And so I think this is really important. So who does that for you? So I I do a version of the same thing. This is the this is back to the thing of long tenure. So I have people who are long tenured but like huge disagreements with them. Um and they've realized that when they um when they talk back to me, they get upset with me, there are no consequences, right? But that takes that comfort takes a long while to build. You can't expect someone to come in, especially if they come from corporate America, and expect them to like stand up to you because usually there are consequences. You just get fired. So, No, no, no, no. I'm a blue belt. There's many people who could choke me out. So, that's a risky risky path to take. Okay. So we we talked about tenure at the very beginning of this conversation where I never finished a thought when I was asking Mr. Beast about turnover on his talent uh like the the most talented people in there and he's just like there's a value here because the guy that runs his operations has been there. He used to live together. They he's like I've spent not 10,000 hours talking to this guy, 30,000 hours where they walks on set and since he's running his operations, they're running like 10 at a time. Mr. Beast can walk on set and he like before he'll look up and he the guy his name's Tyler. He's like, I already know about this and this is why I made this decision and we're doing this and oh, you may not like this shot, but we're doing this shot because that allows us to shoot from this angle and then literally does nothing has even come out. It's like they're they're what's the from thing from Star Trek with the Vulcan mind mel. So that's what happened. He go and he said the greatest thing he goes you don't get that in 100 hours. The group of old people you have to be very very careful with. Think about like the the most talented people that uh Walt Disney had. It was like these nine guys there's animators. I think they used to call them the old men after Walt died. And I just talked to Ed Camel, the founder of Pixar, and they're going in there as a he's a young technologist trying to pitch them here's a new way to animate. And Walt's dead, these guys are old. There's no fresh blood. They're like the computers will never be able to do the stuff that you're talking about. It's like they reject. It's very inhuman is to reject these new ideas. It took Gustaf 18 years to get to CEO. Well, how do you get new talent then? Like what are you guys doing literally at Spotify? Cuz I know you you have the same idea. You guys have the same idea that um Toby from Shopify talked to me about and my friend Kareem from Ramp did. Yeah. Yeah. He's he's the best. Um but that you guys are fine hiring for spikes. So how do you like today? How are you getting in? your huge platform business around I think just celebrated 20 year anniversary right exactly how are you getting new young talent then how do you think about that one of the challenges that Apple had with machine learning and AI. It was too late to see it. What's the thing that keeps you up at night? Like what do you think the weakest spot for for Spotify is right now? I think the thing that keeps me up at night not surprising what what AI truly means in the limit. I'm pretty sure that media habits are going to change because of AI. And so I don't think it's an option to just sit still. But the way I think about it is the world moves in microwaves. You get some new technology. It often causes a bunch of havoc. Then there's some new business model that emerges and then things change, right? This was the original Spotify. We kind of rode on the microwave of cheap broadband and PCs, right? And then all of a sudden they were so ubiquitous and the the broadband was so fast, you didn't actually need to own files anymore. You could just stream them, right? We realized that we built a business model around it that became very disruptive to the to the download industry and so forth. And then you wait a few years, everything looked great. Then the smartphone came along and now everything changes again. You have people that don't have a computer. We only had a free tier on the computers. We had no free tier. Turns out that while the PC and the internet, the desktop was had such low latency you could stream it. If you try to stream a song over cellular back in 2008, it wouldn't even start. It was 20 seconds to start. It would chop. So like everything changed again. And then we had to adapt to that. And we managed to we came up with the offline sync business model and the mobile model and so forth. But then you get these periods of stability. So if I was an analyst and I try to predict the world between 2015 to 2025 those 10 years just you know what will the world be like? I would have done really well to just extrapolate more mobile subscription more ads just more of everything and you would have gotten really close to what happened. But if you would have shifted that 10 years earlier, 2005 to 2015, you would have extrapolated PCs and internet. You would have missed the smartphone. You would have missed everything. We missed Uber. We would have missed the entire world. So the question is which era are we in? Are we in the comaters of extrapolation or in the macro change? I think we're in one of these where everything changes. So I can't tell you what's going to change, but I'm pretty sure that things are going to change. But the way we think of it as a company is the scariest periods are the periods of change. Guess when Spotify grew the most? That's a perfect place to end. Gustaf, thanks for doing this, man. Always good to talk to you. Appreciate it, man.

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Say more about that. Well, I think uh you know, you go through life and uh I I was uh I was thinking a lot as a kid about things and there were there were a few problems that that really like dumbfounded me when I learned about them. One was this notion, I don't remember exactly when, but someone told me, you know, all the atoms in your body or like 99% of them get switched out every seven years. I'm like, "Yeah, wait, what? Every seven years? What? What do you mean?" Like, "Yeah, every seven years they're all switched out." But that means I'm not the same person. So if I thought I was my atoms, I thought I was my body. Like clearly this is me and you're telling me we I see you in seven years and I'm someone else. So then what am I? If I'm not my atoms, what am I? You know, if you look at a rock, it is its Adams. You look at you, come back seven years later, same atoms. But in you and I, like your atoms may have been, first of all, most atoms never get destroyed or created, right? They're largely the same. So So you may have a bunch of Napoleon atoms in your body or something. And when you die, it's going to go to someone else, right? So So it's just the the construction of those atoms that is you for like a very brief time, right? So I got to that realization that, you know, you're not your atoms, you're the you're the structure of your atoms. And another word for structure is information. So then I'm like, okay, so it's a DNA. Like DNA is the blueprint and like you arrange the atoms in a certain thing. That's you. And then someone said like, no, that's not really it either because if you think about something for a long time, if you play the piano for a long time. So you think certain patterns, your brain will grow. You're going to get an overdeveloped musical center. If you're good at languages, your language center developers or the most famous example are cabbies in the UK. you know they have to learn all along and by heart and they when you brain scan them they have a very overdeveloped 3D center for three-dimensional thinking so clearly it's not static what you think about moves those atoms around in new patterns and it's not even the same atoms the atoms get switched out over time so now you're not your atoms you're not even the structure of the atoms you literally are your thoughts literally not as an analogy it's the only thing that is constant is the processing information pattern right? Everything like the the atoms that do the processing get switched out. So now I'm like, okay, … I'm information processing. And that that was kind of a mind … [snorts] And then I got comfortable with it cuz I'm like, well, now I can sort of live forever cuz if I'm information processing, I'm thinking in certain ways. That's really what I am. You could have instantiated me with some other some other atoms, etc. Then if I bring some of that into my kids, if they're thinking a little bit in the same way like 32% of me is still living in them because I am my thoughts and then I transfer my thoughts and you know if you ray curs while you say like well now transfer them to computer and you get to live forever because you are your thoughts and if that information processing lives there that that was really you not your atoms. So this whole thing of like we probably are computational beings things information processing I think it was is what got me into AI in the first place but then at university more than that in university in the late '9s you couldn't do anything with it the computers were not powerful enough so when you try to instantiate those ideas okay so this is interesting so you've been thinking about this for multiple decades you had you had to have this like favor able occurrence of events that now lead you to have I think you guys are the second largest subscriber base in the world behind Netflix. Am I am I that correct? And you have this huge data set. Now the technology can catch up with the thing you've been taking about since you're in college. Yeah. I'm deeply impressed by the Kindle, by the way, as a product. And it's not just the technology like the the passive screens and so forth. What people miss is the business model innovation. They did the whisper sync where it silently just updates in the background because they bought a certain amount of, you know, mobile data. It's it's a great product. It's funny, we had this conversation. So, we had Jimmy Aine on the show earlier and, you know, Jimmy was in like top three people I wanted to meet of all time because I love Defiant Ones, the documentary of him and Dr. Dre. And I've watched it, I don't know, now 10 times or something. And it's weird because me and Jimmy are friends and we're like, we live close to each other. Um, and [laughter] he swears up and down. He's like, I was going to kill him. It's just like Apple held me back. I was like, Jimmy, there's just no way. He's like, you're like a small part in a huge company that built the great the most successful consumer product of all time. These were small guys in a tiny there's like 5 million people in Sweden and something like that. And they had if Spotify like there was they only had one thing they had I always love this idea was like if you had to pick between this is Josh Kushner's quote where it's like if you had to pick the person that's like uh the most experienced or the smartest or wants the most, you always bet on the person that wants it the most. They had to if they didn't succeed, they would have died. If Apple Music didn't work out, they would have been fine. And I think he said when he started the fight with you guys, you guys only had like, I don't know, three million or 10 million or 15 million subscribers A lot of people were very, very scared at the time to this day, even though he's retired, I mean, me and Daniel talk about this all the time because it's just it's just hilarious because they're obviously close friends uh too. And uh yeah, he's a He's formidable individual but again I think being onto a bigger company and again like it was just very fascinating. Yeah, but it worked out. There have been a few of those moments. yeah you don't get bad luck that many times. for sure. Yeah. There were some good hard reasons for why we um why we didn't get crushed them. So we bet that they wouldn't do a good free tier. And so we focused a lot on premium and a really good free tier. The second was uh personalization because because Apple was I would almost say against data at the time. We bet that they would never get good at personalization recommendation and and I I I and we believe that was the future. The third was ubiquity. We'd bet that they were going to prefer their own products and never get be good on an Samsung TV or an Android phone. So, these were our three bets. Premium, personalization, and ubiquity. And I have to say they panned out really well. We're, you know, they're still struggling on they they didn't they had a free tier for a while, a radio, they pulled it back. Uh, ubiquity, you know, I think they still struggled to be good on non-Apple hardware and personalization, I want to say, were better. So there were real strategic reasons and and still are for for why I think we we held out but it was also to your point for us this was not optional. We either died or burned or we did this back against the wall. What do you I found one of my all-time favorite quotes when I was reading the book 0ero to1. The quote [music] says, "The single most powerful pattern I have noticed is that successful people find value in unexpected places and they do this by thinking about business from [music] first principles instead of formulas." That is exactly what Apploven has done with their advertising [music] platform, Axon. Axon connects you with over a billion potential new customers [music] inside mobile games. Axon allows you to capture undivided attention. Axon ads [music] are full screen video ads that are watched for an average of 35 seconds. That is retention that blows other ad platforms out of the water. You can launch on Axon in minutes. You set the goal and Axon [music] achieves it. There's no complex setup, no expertise needed, and Axon scales [music] quickly. They can put your ads in front of over a billion potential customers. Other businesses have seen immediate results have scaled [music] to hundreds of thousands of dollars of spend per day and increased their revenue by millions. So you want to get started quickly before [music] all your competitors are on Axon. And you can do that by going to That is axon.ai/enra. Everybody's going to know what Spotify is. I don't think you know many people know who you are. You've only done a few podcasts. The one you did with Patrick I thought was excellent. But I want to go into some of the things that I know about you I think is very uh unusual. We talked about like the kind of the dangers of some of these social apps and you have built your own AI agent. Can you explain how you like consume X for example? What you've built? The thing about Evan, you know people give me … They're like yeah but look at his market cap. I was like, I don't care about his market cap. I care about that you're think he he he is truly differentiated. And I spent a bunch with him. At the end, I was like, I just want him to win. I don't like I don't care about his like figure it out. And then everybody's like, oh, but his market his his um you know, his stock's down 80% or something like that. So, I just went to CEBT and I was like, how many times did Steve Jobs suffer a 75% decline? You know, it was like four times. Like, this happens in everybody's career. The kid is young. He's not a kid. The guy is young. Like, let's see. and let's let's see what happens over the next decade, you know, but the fact is like he's got a lot of very very interesting ideas that no one else has. And he invented a a a pattern on social media that a billion people use every day. You think that guy is not interesting to hear talk for an hour? You're … crazy. This is one of the most fascinating things about you, and I think it's really really important to drill down on, and it's really dangerous for people not to do. you are constantly trying to eliminate noise. The idea even before you you turn this into an audio, you're essentially taking text and turning it into audio now with the feature you just talked about. But when we talked about this or maybe I heard you I think you told me about it, maybe I heard you talk about a podcast, but you were taking it, you could read it though before, right? It was like stripping out all like the crazy … that happens on X or the people fighting over politics and it's just like that. What are the people I care about? What are they talking about that's not going to induce me? Like it's not going to raise my cortisol levels or make me sad. So I literally ask my agent uh filter for rage bait, filter for for clickbait, uh filter for uh you know politics. I just ask this is the kind of user control that you can have now that very few people understand that you can have yet and it's too complicated but you can have all that control. So what what I think is most people kind of know what they want but you know you get captured in the moment. You know it's like you want something and then someone puts candy in front of you, you're going to take that candy. So what is interesting is can you give people the chance to decide their own future ahead of time. This is the idea behind like the taste profile and behind these agents like I'm not better than any anyone else. I get captured all the time. So so my specific pet peeve is road rage. I'm so fascinated by it. I just go down dark holes of road rage cuz it's the weirdest thing. Like these supposedly, you know, fully normal smart people, they waste their entire lives and go to jail. and then afterwards you realize that no, they were pretty normal people. It's just somehow inside your car you lose it. So I go down that rabbit hole and I watch hours of road rage, right? But what I can do now is I can say like don't show me road rage cuz I know what's going to happen. So that that like what what do you call it? Um ahead of time pre premeditated. premeditated media. Is something that that I think everyone should at least have access to if they want to. It works for me and I think it will work for a lot of people and I think it's I think that need is not going to get less. So, I think it's going to get it's not going to get smaller, it's going to get bigger. So, I happen to think it's also good business. Very few people are that strong can take that kind of but that's why he's successful. Oh, yeah. But people don't know you're you're a brown belt. Oh, a blue bell just so you could also choke them. It's a tenure. I have a bunch of people around me who who I I think and hope feel comfortable saying like, "No, you're wrong. I I think you're just not understanding this." And and I think so because they do and they've learned that, you know, I I can't always control myself. I'm very passionate about something. I'm like, "No, you're wrong. That's stupid." Blah, blah, blah. And then they know it's not going to be consequences, so they say it anyway. I try to do that more in like one-on- ones or small groups. Sometimes there's a big meeting, someone who has worked with me for a long time, feels very very uh comfortable, just says like, "No, I think that's a that's a stupid idea." And I'm like, "No, your idea is stupid." and everyone around is like, "Oh … now now everyone is going to get fired, you know." So you have to build that trust over time. So I I have a version of the of the same. So one benefit of of tenure is the trust. People keep you honest unless you you know you become too full of yourself which is always a risk with success. Um but the other benefit is this efficiency of like people know you don't have to give as much context. There are some downsides to tenure which is opposite of Elon's you don't get fresh blood as much and so you need to be careful. Maybe you're just a group of old people eventually right? So you have to control for that. So I I try to make sure that we also hire some new. But these are the two benefits just efficiency and and trust. So, it's back to like you optimize for some things, but then you have to mitigate for the other things. So, if you're optimized for tenure, you have to mitigate for the risk that you don't get fresh blood that your career ladder is slow. So, maybe people who are talented feel like, well, that's going to take 10 years to get up the career ladder. So, then you have to create programs for that to give them exposure. Yeah, [laughter] took 18 years to get C. Wow. It's a long time. Finally made it. But uh but it is it is the same principle. Another great episode by the way, the Toby episode. Yeah. um it's it's a couple of things one is um you get you get junior talent and then we have this this um rising stars program we literally identifi ask managers to identify like these are these are rising stars so then we have a program for them every year it's like maybe 20 30 people and so they get to go on program to where they go out into the different markets like India, US, you know, Germany, etc. and learn about the different problems in different markets. Then they go and sit with Alex and talk to him. Then they sit with me. It's literally this internal, you know, MBA program where you learn business, technology, product, and you build relationships across the or right. So now these people come out 12 months later, they know everyone in Spotify across the world. So they can get anything done. So now they're going to start rising much faster. So we have these specific programs to identify the talent and help them accelerate versus like the organic path of them doing something getting noticed and slowly working the way up. So so that's one thing but then every now and then you also just have to hire a more senior level, right? So if you look at uh when AI started happening or was called machine learning back then I felt that we just weren't strong enough in deep learning specifically we knew the old school matrix factoriization stuff. So we did an acquisition of a company called the Echonest in Boston just to get very close to MIT and then we had a bunch of talent in that field and establish ourselves. So sometimes you have to do acquisitions and just get when it's a completely new skill something like you know if you if you need to get big in crypto quickly. Yeah you can wait for years for the organization to understand crypto learn you may have to acquire or hire at some senior level. You have to mitigate for the problems of tenure. And if I'm going to make some farfetched analogies, maybe this is On average, they were slightly too old to see that. Probably people in their org knew all about it, were all over it. They should have like just gotten someone at a more senior level sooner. So sometimes you have to mitigate for the drawbacks of long time as well. Periods of change. When things are stable, market share stay stable. You don't eat market share. So when there's change, there's risk. You can lose market share. But that is also when you have the most opportunity to to eat market share if you adopt a change. So my principle is just always be first. Be first and adopt it first. Like the world is going to change. Just accept that and get ahead of the curve. So I I think this is a time of great opportunity for us to do new things. But it is also the thing I'm thinking about constantly. What does it actually mean and what are the right bets? Are the right bets to bet on user control and and and these things are, you know, whereas others are going to bet complete opposite of us. So that's that's what keeps me up at night is we're still in this change. It hasn't finished yet. No one knows exactly where it's going to end up. They're going to be the Ubers and Airbnbs of of this era. And may maybe they are open anthropic book. Maybe not. Maybe it hasn't even happened yet. Thank you, man. I hope you enjoyed this episode. Please remember to subscribe wherever you're listening and leave a review. And make sure you listen to my other podcast, founders for almost a decade. I've obsessively read over 400 biographies of history's greatest entrepreneurs searching for ideas that you can use in your work. Most of the guests you hear on this show first found me through Founders.

FAQ

A. 英語原文・自動字幕について

### なぜ英語が「自動字幕ベース」なの? 公式の文字起こしは? このページの英語は、YouTube が生成した automatic captions(ASR=音声認識) を yt-dlp で取得したものです。人手で整えた公式トランスクリプトではありません。 公式サイト(davidsenra.com)にはエピソード要約・ショーノートはありますが、取得時点では全文の公式文字起こしは前提にしていません。 参照: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYnVDIgZxlI

### 自動字幕の精度はどれくらい? どこが壊れやすい? 一般に YouTube 自動字幕の精度は条件で大きく変わります。 - 条件が良いと 85–95% 前後まで上がる例もある - アクセント・早口・専門用語・固有名詞・複数話者 で一気に落ちる このエピソードはインタビュー(2人会話)で比較的クリアですが、スウェーデン英語・組織論・AI・メディア固有名詞が多く、名前の誤変換が起きやすいタイプです。

### この記事の英語で実際に見つかった/起きやすい誤変換は? 自動字幕原文に出やすい典型例です(日本語本文側では多くを修正済み)。

| 字幕に出た/出やすい表記 | おそらく正しい表記 | |---|---| | Gustaf | Gustav(Gustav Söderström) | | Daniel E | Daniel Ek | | Alex Nordstrom | Alex Nordström | | Steven Sowski / Senowski | Steven Sinofsky(元 Microsoft) | | PNA | P&L(損益計算書) | | star patent | star pattern(星型の一対一) | | coco / co-president | co-president | | rationous | rash / impulsive 系の意味の崩れ | | u suck that meta | Zuckerberg at Meta(当時 Facebook) | | Prima Betteria / Prima Material | Prima Materia | | sonantic | Sonantic(音声合成、Spotifyが買収) | | Echonest / the Echonest | The Echo Nest(音楽データ、Spotifyが買収) | | Apploven / Axon | AppLovin / Axon(スポンサー) | | Deal | Deel(スポンサー、グローバル雇用) | | RAMP | Ramp(スポンサー) | | Jimmy Aine | Jimmy Iovine | | Draian | Dr. Dre | | comaters of extrapolation | comfort of extrapolation(外挿の安定期) | | Gen C | Gen Z の可能性が高い | | Ed Camel | Ed Catmull(Pixar) | | CEBT | ChatGPT | | foreign deployed 等 | 本編では主に組織・AI語彙が崩れやすい |

つまり英語欄は「音声の生ログ」に近く、学習用の対照テキストとしては有用でも、引用の一次ソースとしては動画そのものを優先してください。

### 日本語と英語は1対1で完全対応している? 完全対応ではありません。 - 日本語は読みやすさのため発言をまとめ・整文している - 英語は自動字幕の切れ目が多く、発言数が日本語より細かい場合がある - ページでは話者(センラ/グスタフ)を手がかりに、順番で英語を紐づけている そのため「この日本語のこの1文 = この英語のこの1文」とは限らず、だいたい同じ話題の塊として読むのが正しい使い方です。

### 上部トグル(英語原文 / 少し大きく)は何のため? - 英語原文 ON/OFF … まず日本語だけ読みたい人向け。英語は約9.5pxの補助情報 - 英語を少し大きく … 約11px前後。対照しながら精読したいとき用 英語をメインにすると誤変換に引きずられやすいので、デフォルトは「日本語メイン・英語は極小」にしています。

### スポンサー読み上げは? 本文では Ramp / Deel / AppLovin(Axon) などのスポンサー枠を省略しています。本編の組織論・time well spent・AI・Apple対抗の議論には含めません。

B. 人物・会社・固有名詞

### Gustav Söderström / Spotify とは? Gustav Söderström(グスタフ・セーデルストローム) は Spotify の Co-CEO(共同CEO)。2008〜2009年ごろ入社し、プロダクト・技術側を長く担ったあと、Alex Nordström とともに共同プレジデント期間を経て CEO 職へ。本編時点で在籍は約18年。 Spotify は音楽ストリーミングから始まり、ポッドキャスト・オーディオブックなどを単一アプリ(スーパーアプリ)に載せたコンシューマー向け音声プラットフォーム。サブスク収益の比率が高い、と本編で語られる。

### Daniel Ek / Alex Nordström とは? Daniel Ek(ダニエル・エク) は Spotify 共同創業者。長いあいだ CEO として顔であり、委任型リーダーとして本編で繰り返し語られる。共同CEO体制への移行前に、グスタフとアレックスを共同プレジデントにして日常運営を委譲した、という準備が本編の冒頭テーマ。 Alex Nordström(アレックス・ノードストローム) はビジネス・コンテンツ側を主に担う共同プレジデント/共同CEO側のパートナーとして登場。Eチーム運営や Rising Stars で「アレックスと座る」エピソードも出る。

### David Senra(センラ)とは? 起業家伝記を扱う Founders ポッドキャストで知られるホスト。本番組 David Senra Show では創業者インタビューを行う。Spotify 本編では、Founders が人生の仕事である一方、新番組は利己的な学習欲でもある、と語る。

### 「Appleが殺せなかった」とは? エピソード原題のテーマ。Beats/Apple Music 側(Steve Jobs、Jimmy Iovine、Dr. Dre など)が Spotify を潰しに来た時期があった、という歴史。小国スウェーデンのスタートアップが、プレミアム+良い無料枠・パーソナライズ・ユビキティという Appleへのカウンターポジション3点 で持ちこたえた、とグスタフが説明。

### Jimmy Iovine / Beats / Defiant Ones 音楽プロデューサー・Interscope 創業など多領域で成功した Jimmy Iovine。Dr. Dre と Beats を作り、Apple に売却・Apple Music 文脈で Spotify と対立した時代がある。ドキュメンタリー The Defiant Ones がセンラの推し。本編では「殺すつもりだった」系の逸話と、周縁が中心を取る Game of Thrones 箴言が並ぶ。

### The Echo Nest / Sonantic - The Echo Nest: 音楽データ・ML系。Spotify が買収し、ディープラーニング強化・MIT近接の才能獲得として言及。 - Sonantic: 音声合成。LLMが台本を十分書ける前から、大規模ユーザー向けに安価な音声を用意する賭けとして買収、と語られる。

### Steven Sinofsky 元 Microsoft(Windows 部門など)の幹部で、組織論の論客として知られる。本編では「正しい組織モデルはない/勝ちきれない」テーゼの出典として言及(字幕では Sowski / Senowski に崩れやすい)。

### Prima Materia / ピア スウェーデン側の関係者・チームとしてランチとレーシングのエピソードに登場。固有名の字幕ゆれあり。本編のポイントはグスタフの競争心と「time well spent」哲学の導入。

### Spotify: A Product Story グスタフがナレーションした Spotify の社史系ポッドキャスト。センラの Spotify ラップで上位に入った、と本編。創業者に「自社史を語れ」と勧める文脈でも出る。

C. 考え方案・用語の意味

### co-president → Co-CEO の準備 約3年、グスタフとアレックスが共同プレジデントとして全日の P&L/バランスシートを回し、ダニエルが徐々にロープを長くした。CEO 就任時に「事業運営」は体得済みで、残る学習は PR・政府・公的顔などダニエル単独領域、という説明。

### star pattern(星型)vs synchronized swimming(シンクロ) - 星型: ダニエルが好む、多くの人との一対一。同じテーマでも相手ごとに別会議 → 認識ずれが起きやすい。 - シンクロ: グスタフ&アレックスが採用。分業レーンではなく、SVP 全員が同じ Eチーム会議(火曜・約3時間・約14人)で同期。「オフラインで」禁止。時間コストは高いが、CEO視点の共有と依存関係の即時解決が目的。

### 組織図を出荷する(shipping the org chart) 組織の分断がプロダクト体験の分断としてユーザーに出ること。Spotify は単一体験(スーパーアプリ)が戦略なので、並列分業の短期快適さより内部で戦って一体に保つ、というリスク認識。

### 機能組織・マトリクス・事業部制と Apple 機能組織はオーナーシップが明確だが政治化しやすく、信頼と 長い在職(tenure) がないと崩れる、というのがグスタフの観察。Apple の一体感は長期シニアの同期から来ている、と外から見た仮説。Yahoo 時代の「EVP の殺し合い」が反面教師。

### time well spent / no regrets - 内部では長く no regrets と呼んでいた指針。 - 第三者匿名調査で、Spotify は比較対象中で後悔が最も低い側(Gen Z で約90%を良く感じる、等の口頭)。一部巨大PFでは後悔が約60%以上、という対比。 - ダークパターンで滞在を伸ばせるがやらない。動画ポッドキャストのオプトアウト(動画オフ)も「アンチ・エンゲージメント」決定の例。 - 収益の約90%がサブスク、と口頭。財布の投票は「価値・time well spent」に揃いやすい、というインセンティブ論。

### ディストリビューションと単一アプリ ポッドキャスト参入時、App Store には良い専用アプリが多数あったが利用は Apple Podcasts が約98.5%(口頭)。問題はプロダクト品質より到達。既存数億ユーザーに載せるために単一アプリの複雑さを引き受けた。

### フィットネス/ランニングプレイリスト(AI) ユーザーの多くが Spotify で運動する、というデータ(約70%口頭)。例: 「8分マイル、自分のテイスト、ダウンビート合わせ、毎週更新」→ ケイデンス計算・テンポ調整・ビートマッチ・実況オーバーレイ。Investor Day 前後の発表文脈として語られる。

### 生成AI=コンピュータが英語を理解した 旧来は開発者だけがコンピュータと話せた、という比喩。全ユーザーと高忠実度で会話し体験を適応させる=アルゴリズムへのユーザーコントロール、がミッション。プレイリスト作成のべき乗則と同様、熱心な少数の「訂正・対話」が多数に波及する、という見立て。

### premeditated media(計画的メディア) 衝動(キャンディ・ロードレイジ動画など)に捕まる前に、エージェントで rage bait / 政治 / クリックベイトを濾す。未来の自分の情報ダイエットを事前に決める、というコントロール観。Save to Spotify 系のプライベート生成ポッドキャストとも接続。

### 人間=情報処理(原子の入れ替わり) 7年で体の原子がほぼ入れ替わる → 自分は原子ではなく構造=情報 → 思考で脳構造も変わる → 定数は情報処理パターン、という哲学が AI 関心の原点、と語る。大学時代は計算機が弱く実装できず、DeepMind・Transformer で再点火。

### Premium / Personalization / Ubiquity Apple Music 対抗の3ベット: 1. Premium + 良い無料枠(Apple は広告・無料が苦手と予測) 2. パーソナライズ(当時 Apple はデータに消極的と予測) 3. ユビキティ(非 Apple ハードでも良い体験)

### 変化の時期に伸びる 安定期はシェア固定、変化期は失うリスクと取る機会が同居。原則は 常に最初に適応。今は外挿時代ではなくマクロ変化(AI)側、という見立て。この時代の Uber/Airbnb はまだ誰かわからない、で締め。

### Rising Stars / スパイク採用 在職の利点(信頼・効率)の副作用(フレッシュ不足・昇進の遅さ)への緩和。年20〜30人規模の社内加速プログラム、Echo Nest 型のスキル買収、シニア採用。「スパイク(突出)」採用を許容する文化にも言及。

D. このHTMLの使い方・CRIT

### CRIT で質問するには? 見た目用は HTML preview、行コメント向きは article-bilingual.md です。 - わかりにくい段落を選んでコメント/質問 - エージェントが返信できる 「この用語がわからない」「英語と日本語が食い違って見える」なども歓迎です。FAQに足りない点があれば追記できます。

### 引用や学習に使うときの注意は? 一次情報は動画(YouTube / 公式エピソードページ)です。このHTMLは学習用の再構成です。 - 固有名詞・数字は話者の口頭ベース - 英語欄は自動字幕由来の誤変換を含む - 日本語は整文・意訳を含む(逐語ではない) 公の場で引用するなら、可能ならタイムスタンプ付きで動画を当たってください。

### ファイル構成 - 対話本文: article-ja.md - 見た目: article-ja.html - 日英対照(CRIT向け): article-bilingual.md - FAQ: FAQ-ja.md