David Senra · JA + tiny EN

世界は思っているよりずっと変えられる——マーク・アンドリーセン

Marc Andreessen: The World Is More Malleable Than You Think

英語はYouTube自動字幕ベース。日本語は学習用の整文対話。一次情報は動画。

センラアンドリーセン
FAQ 一覧 YouTube
センラ#1

ここから始まるとは思ってなかった。カフェインをそんなに摂って、脈が飛んでいるのに気づいた話がしたかったんだ。

EN

I wasn't expecting to start here. I wanted to talk about why you were consuming so much caffeine that you noticed that your heart was skipping a beat. So, I love caffeine. So, for for a very long time I always have this the ultimate day. Like the perfect day was 12 hours of caffeine followed by 4 hours of alcohol. This is like that that's just like the ultimate. I did I did I did I did cut out or at least for now I've cut out cut out the the 4 hours of alcohol, but um you know, caffeine is just like one of one of nature's most most marvelous things, but you turns out you can overdo it. And so, uh yeah, a while ago I was drinking a couple years ago and I started to feel just a little bit something felt off and I just took my pulse and but I was realized I was skipping about every 10th heartbeat. So, I had I had like a existential crisis cuz I'm like all right, I need to call 911. Is this like am I about to have a heart attack? Am I about to die? So, I got under the table and I Google and I'm like, is this a problem? And and and Google for Dr. Google said, no, it's okay. It's fine. You just might want to cut back a little bit on the caffeine. You said something that I love and I never hear other entrepreneurs talk about, but I think it's super important that you don't have any levels of introspection. Yes, zero. As little as possible. Why? Move forward. Go. Yeah, I don't I don't know. I just I found people who dwell on the past get stuck in the past. It's it's just it's a real problem and it's a it's a problem at work and it's a problem at home. So, I've read obviously 400 I think now 10 biographies of history's greatest entrepreneurs and that was one of the most surprising things. Like what's the most surprising thing that you've learned from this? They're like, oh, they have little or zero introspection. Like Sam Walton didn't wake up thinking about his internal self. He just woke up like, I like building Walmart. I'm going to keep building Walmart. I'm going to make more Walmarts and just kept doing it over and over again. And you probably know if you go back like before 100 years ago it never it never would have occurred to anybody to be introspective. Like it's the the the the whole idea of I mean it just all of the modern conceptions around introspection and therapy and all the things that kind of result from that are, you know, kind of a manufactured in the 1910s, 1920s. Say more about that.

アンドリーセン#2

カフェインは大好きなんだ。長いあいだ、究極の一日は「12時間カフェイン、そのあと4時間アルコール」だと思っていた。今はアルコールの4時間は切っている。でもカフェインは自然のいちばん素晴らしいものの一つだ。ただ、やりすぎられることがわかった。

数年前、ちょっとおかしいと感じて脈を測ったら、だいたい10拍に1回飛んでいた。実存主義的クライシスだ。「911に電話するべきか。心臓発作か。死ぬのか」と。テーブルの下でググったら、ドクター・グーグルは「大丈夫、カフェインを少し控えれば」と言った。

EN

Great men of history didn't sit around doing this stuff at any prior point, right? It's all it's it's it's it's all a new construct. It was it was you know, well, so first Western civilization had to kind of invent the concept of the individual, right? Which was like a new concept, you know, several hundred years ago. And then and then, you know, for a long time it was all right, the individual runs, right? And like that does all these things and builds things and builds empires and builds companies and builds technology and does all these things. And then, you know, kind of this kind of guilt-based whammy, you know, kind of showed up uh from Europe from Europe. A lot of it from Vienna in the 1910s, 1920s. Freud and all all all that that entire movement and and kind of turned all that inward and basically said, okay, now we need to like, you know, basically second-guess in the individual. We need to criticize the individual. The individual needs to self-criticize. Right? The the individual needs needs to feel guilt. Needs needs to look backwards. Needs to, you know, dwell on the past. It never resonated with me. Do you find a lot of the greatest founders that you've spent time with and backed and partnered with or have low introspection? Yeah, generally. Although in fairness, um you know, the the the introspection is probably linked to the the personality trait of neuro neuroticism, right? Um so, you know, a lot of a lot of the best founders are, you know, I think like 0% neuroticism. Like they they just don't get emotionally phased by things that happen, which is a superpower when you're an entrepreneur. But having said that, some of the great entrepreneurs are in fact very neurotic. Like it it it, you know, that's also the case. It it's it's not a, you know, it's it's not it's it's a maybe it's a nice to have to be a little neuroticism, but but not necessary. And so, you know, there are some that kind of get wrapped wrapped around the axle um on kind of personal issues. Um you know, as you know, you know, these days sometimes that then, you know, kind of turns into use of, you know, psychedelics, you know, different kinds and hallucinogenic drugs. And you know, that's like one very interesting kind of trajectory for you know, kind of the culture of the country culture of the world. And you know, we'll we'll see where that goes.

センラ#3

他の起業家がほとんど言わないことで、君が言っていて好きな言葉がある。内省のレベルがゼロだ、と。できるだけ少なく。なぜ?

EN

So, we've recorded on like a dozen of these so far. Most of them with some of the greatest, you know, founders living for the show. I can't believe how many how many times on almost every episode psychedelics pops up. And they're like, you should try them. I'm not doing any drugs. Let's be clear. I'm not. I've never have. I'm never going to. Like I I I have horror I have tell you know, problem is I already have like tons of horror stories from people I know or know of that, you know, kind of came out the other side like, well, I actually I had a My my deepest conversation is with actually it was actually with with Huberman. Um and you know, and I was describing this phenomenon where we see it in Silicon Valley where, you know, kind of there these guys get under pressure and, you know, they kind of feel anxious or whatever and they decide to, you know, somebody calls them a psychedelic and they try it. And they kind of come out the other end as a changed person. And and they kind of come out like much more at peace, but then they also tend to like quit their companies. They like move to Indonesia and become a surf instructor. Like there there's there's just like peace out, right? They're they're they're just done. There's a been a whole bunch of examples of this and I and I was complaining to Huberman about this. And in in true Huberman kind of wise Yoda style, he's like, well, you know, how do you know they're not happier? Right? Like like maybe that was the positive outcome. Like maybe the thing that was driving them to be a great entrepreneur was a fundamental level of insecurity, right? And kind of this, you know, this kind of unsatisfied, you know, kind of neurotic impulse. And now they're just now they're just satisfied. Now they're just, you know, whatever the serotonin levels are whatever have been recalibrated, but they're just kind of satisfied sitting on the beach and being a surf instructor. Um and you know, maybe they're better off. And I'm like, yeah, but their company is failing. Um and so anyway, yeah. So, there's a possibility that there's a better version of you or me on the other side of, you know, ayahuasca, but I'm not willing to find out. I'm not either. Daniel Ek has the greatest way to put this. Like he thinks the best entrepreneurs are not optimizing for happiness. They're optimizing for impact.

アンドリーセン#4

前に進め。過去にこだわる人は過去に詰まる。仕事でも家庭でも本当に問題だ。

EN

I think that's true. I think that's true. I think it's certainly true for Daniel. He's a, you know, kind of a great case study of that. You know, having said that, I you know, I always kind of wonder is that well, intrinsic versus ex- extrinsic motivations. Impact strikes me a little bit as an extrinsic motivation. You know, it's it's like, yeah, impact, money, fame, you know, and by the way, I think extrinsic motivations are fantastic and I think, you know, they can be very motivating. The people who get kind of get the great rewards for building great things, you know, deserve them, but at least what I found is it's the intrinsic motivations that actually get people up in the morning. Um and and there's where you, you know, you're dangerously close to straying into introspection. But, you know, it's like, okay, like what you know, what what is the thing that causes somebody who's now, you know, extremely materially wealthy, extremely successful, you know, to get up in the morning and continue to, you know, kind of punch away at the world? I think those those tend to be interior. What's that for you? Oh, I mean but that would require introspection. I'll let other people speculate.

センラ#5

歴史上の偉大な起業家の伝記を410冊くらい読んできたけど、いちばん意外だったことの一つがそれだ。サム・ウォルトンは朝起きて内面の自分のことを考えていない。「ウォルマートを建てたい。もっとウォルマートを作る」とやり続けるだけだ。100年前まで、誰も内省するなんて思いつかなかった。内省やセラピーという近代的概念は、だいたい1910〜20年代に作られたものだ。

EN

No, but you have to say. It's it's a lot more fun to speculate about other people other people's other people's intro- But I am curious about you because like what you have you have a series of quotes that I absolutely love. I save them in my phone and I reread from time to time. One of them I'll I'll butcher it, but it's like, you know, the world is a way more malleable than you think. And if you just pursue something with a lot of maximum effort, drive, and energy, the world will recalibrate around you easier than you think. And I actually reread that this morning before I came over here. And I was like, what is that for Mark? Like today, like what are you waking up trying to change in the world? Yeah, there's a there's a lot that we're actually trying to do. I'm suspicious that that's my actual underlying motivation. Why? I I just because like I like I said, I don't think external impact is enough to keep people going. Or at least I've seen way too many people who had a high level of external impact and then at some point they just stop. Okay.

アンドリーセン#6

歴史上の大人物は、過去のどの時点でもそんなことを座ってやっていなかった。新しい構築物だ。まず西洋文明が「個人」という概念を発明しなければならなかった。何百年か前の新しい概念だ。長いあいだ個人は走り、帝国を作り、会社を作り、技術を作った。

そのあと、罪悪感ベースの一撃がヨーロッパから、とくにウィーンの1910〜20年代から来た。フロイトとその運動全体が、それを内向きにし、個人を第二推測し、批判し、自己批判させ、罪悪感を持たせ、過去を振り返らせた。僕には響かなかった。

EN

the problem with external impact. It's like, okay, it's 4:00 in the morning. You're staring at the ceiling. Like is that enough? Right? Like external impact is stuff that's happening to other people, right? And it's like, all right, what what what is it about you? The the the the story I like to tell myself is that I'm competing with myself, right? The the story I like to tell myself is I'm getting up in the morning cuz I'm trying to become a better version of myself. I'm trying to become, you know, smarter and better informed and, you know, have, you know, reach better conclusions and, you know, be and, you know, be be better at what I do um and continue to expand my skills. But, you know, again, to to to to to actually analyze that properly require a level of therapy that I'm not willing to engage in. Um So, anyway, so yes, the the much more much more comfortable conversation is the, yeah, what what are you trying to do in the world? Which I would love to talk about.

センラ#7

バックアップして一緒に働いた最高の創業者たちも、内省は低い?

EN

I have almost no introspection either. So, like I understand that. All right, so tell me what you're trying to do in the world then. Yeah, I mean, look, we just we have had this it's actually fairly amazing that it's become a controversial, you know, kind of thing, but we just have this like fundamental view that technology is like on balance an enormously powerful force in the world and the basically that the big problem with the world is that there's, you know, there's not enough technology. There's not enough information. There's not enough intelligence. Um and, you know, we have this opportunity. We have these special sets of technologies that let us fundamentally improve things. Um and and then there's this very special, you know, kind of personality type of the entrepreneur um who's able to build a product and then and then able to build a company and build a phenomenon um and and and really make an impact on things. And and so, you know, when when I look at the world, I'm just like, okay, this is just like the this is a very the world we live in is just a very primitive and crude place as compared to what it should be um and what it could be. Um and so, the whole thing that we've been trying to do, you know, for 17 years at our firm is, you know, build kind of the ideal partner to the founders that are, you know, trying to do that based on our own experiences of having been founders that were trying to do that. Overall, the world, especially the Western world, is just it's just stagnant. Like that, you know, the the overall kind of theme of things is just everything is stagnated. And we we could, you know, we we could talk a lot about about that. But, you know, every once in a while you have somebody who comes along and just like, all right, no, I actually have an idea of how to make things like fundamentally better and I have a way to build a build a business around that and build a company, build an empire around that. Um and and that, you know, and and and those people, you know, include ourselves in this, but you know, those of us that are trying to do that, um you know, we're we're like a real movement basically against stagnation. But like, you know, without us there's nothing but stagnation. But, it's actually really funny. I always there's always this kind of criticism that you get from, you know, whatever the, you know, kind of the the say say the corporate press or or or kind of outside critics, which is like, oh, you know, you VCs are funding the wrong things or you entrepreneurs are building the wrong things. It's like, well, nobody like licensed us to do any of this. Like we didn't like apply for a permit. Right? Like get like judged by somebody ahead of time and told, yes, you get to do this. You don't get to do this. Like many people could be trying to do do this. Anybody can do this. Anybody can Anybody can, you know, start build a product, start a company, you know, start even try to be a VC. Like it it's these are all completely open fields. And it's just it it's shocking to me how few people actually give it a shot. And and, you know, and you know, the the fate of the world over the next 1,500 years is riding on the people who actually want to give it a shot. I want to tell you about the presenting sponsor of this podcast, Ramp. I have been reading a lot about SpaceX lately. SpaceX is one of the most valuable private businesses in the world. And one of the main themes in the history of SpaceX is constantly attacking and questioning your cost. Ramp helps many of the most innovative businesses in the world do exactly that. The median company running on Ramp cuts their expenses by 5% and one thing SpaceX has demonstrated is that a religious dedication to controlling costs can help actually increase revenue because you can pursue opportunities you couldn't otherwise. And we see that in the Ramp data, too. The median company running on ramp also grows their revenue by 16%. So when you're running your business on ramp and your competitors are not, you have a massive competitive advantage that compounds over time. Ramp is the only platform designed to make your finance team faster and happier. Many of the top founders and CEOs I know run their business on ramp. I run my business on ramp and you should too. Go to ramp.com to learn how it can help your business save time, save money, and grow revenue. That is ramp.com. So when you started the firm 17 years ago, was your thesis exactly the same as it is today? I'd say the core thesis is the same. The the specifics of you know varied have changed enormously. You know we can talk you know about both parts of that. But yeah no the core thesis was kind of the startup being an entrepreneur, you know, the founder is going to be the core the core engine of progress in the world and I I think that you know I think that's more intriguing than ever. In fact when we started it was still controversial the idea that a founder would run their company. Even in 2008 2009? Yeah it was very well it was very controversial in fact and in fact you know there were high profile companies at the time that were getting heavily criticized for you know basically having these little kids running around running these companies. Okay so you you have this like encyclopedic knowledge of the history of Silicon Valley in your head. I've probably read I don't know 30 to 40 books on it so I have some level but not that you do. I remember reading a book on Nolan Bushnell the founder of Atari who was like 27 at the time and it was excessively rare. It talks about that in his story it's like excessively rare for him not to be replaced once Atari started growing with you know CEO like an older CEO. Yeah. Like were there other examples that before him? Well so Christopher Columbus. Alexander the Great. Right so so that that that throughout history most of the you know Thomas Jefferson throughout history most of the great things that have been built have been built by this kind of super charismatic founder type you know will the power founder type who you know basically built and run something to

アンドリーセン#8

だいたいそうだ。ただ公平に言うと、内省は神経症傾向(neuroticism)という性格特性と結びついている。最高の創業者の多くは神経症が0%で、何が起きても感情で揺れない。起業家としては超能力だ。

一方で、偉大な起業家の中には非常に神経症的な人もいる。必須ではないが、少しあると「あってもいい」くらい。個人的問題に絡まる人もいるし、それがサイケデリックスや幻覚剤の使用に向かうこともある。国や世界の文化として興味深い軌跡で、どこに行くかはこれから見る。

EN

Okay hold on. Henry Ford.

センラ#9

この番組で最高級の創業者たちと十数本録ってきたけど、ほとんど毎回サイケが出てくる。「試せ」と言われる。僕は薬はしない。したこともないし、これからもやらない。知っている人の恐怖ストーリーが山ほどある。

EN

Hold on. I love that you went here because you don't remember this but we had dinner in Miami with Jared Kushner like a year ago something and me and you would wrestle because I was so excited to to talk to you and I was trying to get out of you like you know because I think well he's just going to search for this all day like this is what I do seven days a week. Like who are these entrepreneurs from history that you like? He's out there naming country founders. Exactly. There's this like recency bias right which is like the the world that we live in today is the normal state of the world and like everything that happened in the past is like weird and different and those people were like dumber than we are and like all screwed up and it's like well maybe. Or or maybe the world worked a certain way for thousands of years and we're in the weird time. Like maybe we're in a time that's just like really unusual from a historical you know from from a historical standpoint and I I think this this is one of those dimensions in which that's true. It just it never would would have occurred to anybody 100 200 300 years ago that if somebody was going to like you know start something that they were going to be the person who ran like obviously. It was just obviously the case. The book that I always recommend on this topic is called The Machiavellians which is a sort of famous book from the 1940s by this guy James Burnham who was like one of the great geniuses of the 20th century and he described the way he describes it basically as he said like there've been two like fundamental modes of like business organization over the course of basic history of capitalism. There's what he what he calls bourgeois capitalism which basically is like founder runs the company name on the door. The the classic archetype for bourgeois capitalism was Henry Ford you know in the 1920s and today it's Elon Musk right? It's just like that that's you and by the way in the old days it was Ford Motor Company you know it's not Musk Motor Company but you know everybody knows Tesla and SpaceX like you know these are Elon. And and again that maps to this historical thing which is that's also how countries ran and that's also how you know cities ran and like all these things you just religions by the way like you know basically everything you know founders led the way. That's the historical norm and then he said what he basically says in this book is he goes through and he says that there's this new basically model that basically is a artifact again it's an artifact of kind of this weird period of time between the 1880s and 1920s where kind of the modern world you know as we know it today kind of formed. And he said there was sort of a new philosophy of sort of leadership and management which is called managerialism. Sort of the rise of the concept of a manager and specifically a manager as contrasted to a leader. And so therefore the manager therefore the idea of a management school right therefore Harvard Stanford Business Schools right therefore the idea of the manager who replaces the founder running a company you know therefore the idea of management as a skill set that can be used to run many different kinds of businesses. In the 70s this then turned into the conglomerate which was the idea that it doesn't matter what the company does if you have a good manager the company should do you know 30 different 30 different things. And so managerialism is this idea that you have this kind of interchangeable management skill and that that can basically run anything. And actually what Burnham says is he says look people are going to try to draw value judgment on this and they're going to try to say this is better or worse than the old name on the door model. But he said the reality of the modern world is everything is big. Like you know for the electrical power grid to get big or the road network to get big or the car industry to get big large scale systems need to be run by people who are trained in how to run large scale systems. And so he said you may or may not the same thing with countries large scale countries are going to be run by people who are good at running large scale things. Right? And the and the founding personality type is not the manager personality type those are different and so there's going to be a handoff when things get big and complicated and so that that's the model that Nolan Bushnell talks about and that's the model that dominated Silicon Valley for 50 years. The problem with his argument is that assumes the managers are going to do a good job. Right? And I think if there's like one dominant theme that we're seeing in the last you know 30 years you know in the west for sure it's like managers generally you know writ large are not doing a great job. Or another way to put it is the managers maybe are good at managing something that's going to be status quo for a long time. Like if it doesn't change maybe they you know maybe they can run the banks for a long time or they can run the power company for a long time or the car company and as long as the car is the car is the car you know or soup soup or soup or soup it kind of doesn't matter. But the minute things change the manager personality type because it's not the founder personality type it doesn't know how to deal with change. Not everything is changing a lot of things aren't changing but for the things that are changing they're changing like really really quickly. I mean SpaceX is like the classic example of this. Imagine being a professionally trained manager trained at like you know a top management school working for a rocket launch company competing with SpaceX. And the assumption of the entire rocket industry for you know the last 100 years has been the rockets are used once and then you know that's it. And the economics of launch are dominated by having to build a new rocket every time. And then this like crazy guy in California comes up with this thing where the rockets land on their butt. And you can't replicate it. Okay your management skills like what good are your management skills at that point? And I and I think there there's like a whole bunch of interesting areas of human activity where it like that shift is happening. And so I think this is where Burnham's thesis collapses where it's just like okay the the managers actually can't do it. Yep yes there's a need to run things at scale but no the managers actually can't do it because they can't adapt.

アンドリーセン#10

いちばん深い会話はヒューバーマンとだった。シリコンバレーで圧力がかかって不安になり、誰かにサイケを進められて試す。出てきた人はより平和だが、会社を辞めてインドネシアに移りサーフインストラクターになる、みたいな「ピースアウト」が多い。僕はヒューバーマンに愚痴った。

ヒューバーマンはヨーダみたいに言った。「彼らの方が幸せじゃないと、どうしてわかる? 起業家として駆り立てていた根本的な不安や満たされない神経症的衝動が、セロトニンの再調整で満たされただけかもしれない。ビーチでサーフしている方がマシかもしれない。」僕は「でも会社は失敗してる」と言った。アヤワスカの向こう側により良い自分がある可能性はある。でも確認する気はない。

EN

And the founder could just learn how to run things at scale.

センラ#11

ダニエル・エクの言い方がいちばんうまい。最高の起業家は幸福を最適化していない。インパクトを最適化している、と。

EN

Well that's the theory and that's that's a big part of our theories. Yeah the founders can actually learn how to do this and and you know and look there there there you know this is still a controversial topic this you know this still comes up like this. Is it controversial?

アンドリーセン#12

それは正しいと思う。少なくともダニエルには当てはまる。ただ、インパクトは外在的動機に近いとも思う。インパクト、金、名声。外在的動機は素晴らしいし、大きなものを作った人が大きな報酬を得るのは当然だ。でも朝人を起こすのは内在的動機だと感じている。そこは危険なほど内省に近い。「極端に物質的に豊かで成功した人が、なぜ朝起きてまだ世界にパンチを打ち続けるのか」は内面だ。

EN

Well it is because founders aren't necessarily especially founders on day one are not good at doing this. Like okay so in tech let's talk about tech specifically like in tech the founder tends to have been in a lab you know literally or metaphorically for 20 years before they start their company. Like they've been you know probably working by themselves or in a with a small team. They've been building technology. They haven't been running things like they haven't been you know managing large organizations. They haven't been you know running public companies. And so there there is a missing skill set right? And and and on day one they they don't know how to do that. And so they they do need to be willing to learn how to do that and then they and then by the way they do need to be capable of doing that cuz you know some some of them can and some of them can't. But yeah our so this this maybe is like the core thesis behind our firm which is it's you're much more likely to build something important in the 21st century if you start with a founder and train them on management than you are to start with a manager and try to train them on being a founder on creating new things. And I think that this trend is intensifying and so you're because what's happening is all the old enterprises all the old incumbent institutions of the last 100 years that are run by managers they're all in a state of fundamental collapse. Like they're they're they're all collapsing in like trust and credibility because because they can't adapt. And so this issue is becoming more and more acute which is the system that we thought was necessary and sufficient to actually just like does not work. And if anything good is going to happen it's going to have to be somebody it's going to have to be Henry Ford or Elon Musk type who actually does it. You think it's in a vast majority minority of people agree with you. Look it's becoming more common. I mean when when you get an Elon Musk and a Steve Jobs when you get these kind of archetypal examples of it it's a lot easier to you know to to you know to sell it. You know Mark Mark Zuckerberg we were talking about earlier like he you know he's a great case study of this right? He had you know when Mark started Facebook he's never he'd never had a job before. Okay. Not only had he not managed people he had not worked for anybody. Right? And so like he had he started with zero and his his learning curve which by the way was happened fully in the public eye right? His learning curve was vertical and by the way it's still vertical. Like he spends like an enormous amount of time learning how to become better at running running running these these things at large scale. He's still the founder and he's still the innovator and he's still like a fountain of ideas on what to do. So he so he's he's he's that double you know he's he's like the classic example of a double threat. And then what happens is other founders look at that and they're like oh I could do that. Right? Which is exactly what Steve Jobs said when he saw Nolan Bushnell. Exactly. I can run my company. I can do that. Yeah exactly. And by the way you know it's amazing like how fast this stuff shifted because like you know Steve famously had this you know short period of time where he worked for Hewlett-Packard and I think I don't know if it's true. The legend is that Jobs pitched his manager at Hewlett-Packard.

センラ#13

君にとってそれは何?

EN

No Wozniak pitched him. Was it Wozniak? Okay okay okay Wozniak pitched. There was some other story where where where Jobs went into some meeting with some manager trying to pitch the thing and and the and the line from the manager was absolutely not this is the dumbest idea I've ever heard. Get your feet off my desk and get out of here right? You can just imagine Steve with his you know And they had to be barefoot at that time. My my favorite Apple lore is that the first sale in Apple in Apple's history was made barefoot when he walked into the bike shop. He was barefoot. What's amazing about that is you know yes so so Wozniak for sure worked for Hewlett-Packard. Everything I'm describing was Hewlett-Packard in the 1950s 1960s. In 1940s that was also Dave Dave Dave Packard and Bill Hewlett were that were that founder type and Dave Packard and Bill Hewlett ran their company for between the two of them for like 50 years. Do you think that's the And by the way Silicon Valley was built in large part on HP. HP was the original Silicon Valley company.

アンドリーセン#14

それは内省が要る。他の人に推測してもらおう。他の人の内省を推測する方がずっと楽しい。

EN

I would okay that's the next question.

センラ#15

でも君には、スマホに保存して何度も読み返す一連の名言がある。一つはこうだ——「世界は思っているよりずっと可塑性がある。最大努力とドライブとエネルギーで何かを追求すれば、世界は思っているより簡単に周りを再調整する。」今朝ここへ来る前に読み返した。今日のマークは、朝起きて世界の何を変えようとしている?

EN

by its founders for 50 years and yet people concluded the founders shouldn't run the companies. And so it's it's it's like it's one of those things where it's like it's kind of so obvious it was staring everybody in the face and so people had to construct kind of elaborate, you know, basically, you know, these these elaborate kind of lattices of like, you know, theories to basically get around the fundamental fact that you need somebody who knows what to do after you bring in the thing. Do you think HP might have been the most influential company in Silicon Valley history? It was for sure the most influential company from 1940 to 1980 um and then probably after that Intel. Well, you know, the founders of Intel and you read biographies of them and they talk about modeling after off of HP. Yeah, that's right. That's right. Yeah, that's right. And then how many founders modeled off of Bob Noyce and Intel after the fact including Steve Jobs who is we'd go to Bob Noyce's house for dinner. Yeah, that's right. By the way, that's another great example cuz Bob Noyce at least, you know, present if you look at photos of Bob Noyce, you're like, "Wow, this guy's like a pillar of society." Like he's, you know, he's very very well dressed and he's kind of very adult and he's very like, you know, he's famously the the leader of the Traitorous Eight. Yeah. You know, the the you know, the the the the group that left Shockley to start Fairchild. And they left Fairchild to start Intel.

アンドリーセン#16

実際にやろうとしていることはたくさんある。ただ、それが本当の根底の動機かは疑わしい。外的インパクトだけでは人は続かない。外的インパクトが大きくても、どこかで止まる人を何度も見た。朝4時に天井を見て「それで足りるか」。外的インパクトは他の人に起きていることだ。自分は何か。

自分に語る物語は、自分と競争している、というものだ。朝起きるのは、より良い自分になるため——より賢く、より情報があり、より良い結論に達し、自分の仕事がうまくなり、スキルを広げ続けるため。でもそれを正しく分析するには、やりたくないレベルのセラピーが要る。だから世界で何をやろうとしているかの方がずっと話しやすい。

EN

So Bob Noyce was So Bob Noyce was 100% the Steve Jobs of his time. Yeah. Just in a short-sleeve white dress shirt and a skinny black tie. Yeah. But it was it's again, it's it's like the exact same thing and so I I, you know, I I never unfortunately never met Bob Noyce, but I I could easily imagine Bob Noyce and Steve Jobs sitting down and being able to talk for 3 hours and completely understand each other despite the fact that they the look and feel was like completely different.

センラ#17

僕も内省はほぼゼロだからわかる。じゃあ世界で何をやろうとしているのか教えて。

EN

almost like a disciplinarian to Steve cuz Steve was, you know, wild reckless. Like I was also wild and reckless and he was mature and I think Bob's wife maybe went to work at Apple early on too. So it was He He talked about this um in his biography. Uh there's a few great biographies of Bob Noyce, but he said that the reason he spent so much time after he's really successful spending time with young entrepreneurs, he said it was a restocking the stream in which he fished from. Amazing.

アンドリーセン#18

技術は総じて世界で巨大に強力な力だ、というのが根本の見方で、それが論争的になったこと自体がかなり驚きだ。世界の大きな問題は、技術が足りない、情報が足りない、知能が足りないことだ。物事を根本から良くする特別な技術セットがある。プロダクトを作り、会社を作り、現象を作り、本当にインパクトを出せる特別な性格タイプ——起業家——がいる。

世界を見ると、あるべき姿・ありうる姿に比べて、非常に原始的で粗雑な場所だ。17年間うちのファームでやってきたのは、自分が創業者としてそれをやろうとしてきた経験に基づき、それをやろうとする創業者にとって理想のパートナーを作ることだ。

とくに西洋世界は全体として停滞している。大きなテーマは停滞だ。たまに、物事を根本から良くするアイデアがあり、その周りにビジネスと会社と帝国を建てる方法がある人が来る。そういう人たち——自分たちも含む——は、停滞に対する本物の運動だ。僕らがいなければ停滞しかない。

企業メディアや外の批評家からいつも来る批判がある。「VCは間違ったものに資金を出している」「起業家は間違ったものを作っている」。でも誰も僕らに許可を出したわけじゃない。申請して事前に審査されたわけでもない。誰でもできる。プロダクトを作り、会社を始め、VCをやろうとすら誰でもできる。完全に開いたフィールドだ。実際に挑戦する人がどれだけ少ないか、衝撃的だ。これから1500年の世界の運命は、実際に挑戦したい人にかかっている。

---

EN

He thought it was really important and he's like, "I learned from all the guys before me. I need to take them that that knowledge I've built up over multiple decades and push it down the generation." Ooh, I want to go back to starting the firm though. This is interesting. What was occurring in your life either at that time or before that that you had this observation that this had to be done? Oh, so so the you know, we've got all these elaborate theories. The the practical reality of it was Ben Ben, my partner Ben and I had become very active angel investors. Um and and I'd been an angel investor since like the mid-90s um but then Ben and I started doing it kind of as a, you know, as a as a as a as a real thing, putting significant time into it probably starting in, you know, 2003. Well, I I did it kind of throughout the early 2000s, but 2003, 2004. It's hard to remember now, but if you go back to like 2003, 2004, there weren't like thousands of angel investors. There were like eight. It was like a sure, you know, it was like Ron Conway and a, you know, handful of people. And then I and then Ben and I were running around doing it. And this was a very significant in the evolution of the venture capital industry cuz this was the point at which the traditional VCs got intermediated by angels and seed investors who kind of inserted in before the VCs arrived, which was this, you know, fundamental change that that changed the whole industry. But, you know, we we were part of that. Um so but as a consequence, like we were investing in all these new companies, you know, basically at the point of formation, you know, we're basically playing playing amateur early-stage VC. Um and we're getting into it, you know, it's like we're not going on the board like, you know, you're going to raise money from a real venture firm later, they're going to go on your board and whatever and work with you. And what we just found over and over and over and over again was we ended up getting pulled into these companies um either because there were issues that just like the other people that they were, you know, working with or they're, you know, they're either they either hadn't raised venture yet or the the VCs that they'd raised from couldn't couldn't help them with and so we you just got pulled in. And the reason was we we had been running companies at that point for, you know, whatever 20 years. Um and so, you know, we we at least had some idea of what we were doing. And then the other is we kept getting we kept getting brought into new conflict resolution between the founders and the VCs. Yeah, that's right. So that cuz, you know, like it was especially especially cuz again, much more common at that time, especially if the VCs' fundamental point of view is the founder's not going to run the company and we need to like replace you with a professional manager as fast as possible. Like the founders are not necessarily going to like that and they might resist that and by the way, even if they're on board with that idea, they might not like the person who the who the VC wants to bring in. And so we we kept ending up in these kind of basically as arbitrators in this sort of you know, in theory, we were kind of trusted intermediaries cuz we knew the founders, we knew the VCs. And we could kind of help help bridge between that. But literally what happened was after a while, we were like spending like 8 hours a day just just doing this. And and we're like, all right. And and you know, it's it's like weird. It's like you're writing a $100,000 check and you're like spending all this time doing it and and then to basically arbitrate a dispute somebody who wrote a $10 million check. And it's it's just like, all right, we should probably just write the $10 million check. And and that was that was that So it was it was I always think like the best the the founders I always one of my theories of why they're great founders is they they tend to be able to operate at kind of a strategic conceptual level and then the practical level at the same time. And so we So we had a we had a whole theory I could take you through for the evolution of the venture business. Yeah. But but underneath that was just this actual, you know, the the lived experience of what was actually happening on the ground. The the big theory of the firm that we that we had at that time what was linked to this was linked to this idea of founders and the show, but it was also a structural observation of what was happening in in the venture industry, which was Basically what we did was we we sort of in line with your philosophy, we went back and we studied a lot of other businesses that are are have similarities to the venture business. So we studied private equity, venture capital or sorry, private equity, hedge funds, investment banks, law firms, management consulting firms, ad agencies, accounting firms. You know, basically anything where the the product is fundamentally a relationship, you know, a knowledge work, you know, kind kind of relationship as as compared to something that gets that gets manufactured. And what we observed is basically an an an an exact Hollywood talent agencies actually is the one we we probably talked publicly about the most and so that was that was a great case study. He was in this studio a few months ago. And so and and he actually And by the way, he he gave us, you know, we always make a point of crediting like he he gave us a lot a lot of this theory. So a lot of this comes from him, but well, I actually I'll tell it through through through through through his through his his experience. So when he started his agency in was it '80 whatever? No, '75. '75.

センラ#19

17年前にファームを始めたとき、テーゼは今日とまったく同じだった?

EN

'70s in the '70s, like in the mid-'70s. It was actually very similar It was structurally it was very similar to when we started A16Z in in 2009, which was the configuration of the industry at that point was basically a bunch of essentially service firms, a bunch of talent agencies. None of which were at very high scale. And then each of them was basically a tribe of basically solo operators, who kind of kind of lone wolves. Um and so so so the concept in Hollywood was you had an agent and that was your guy. And that agent knew whoever that agent knew and had whatever relationships that agent had, but the other agents at your agency were not available to you. And there was no collective benefit to the fact that you were at an agency that had not just your guy, but like 100 other guys. There was no collective payoff to that. They ran it in that way for a very specific reason, which was this kind of this eat what you kill professional services mentality where everybody should have to go build build build their own book of business. But but you you end up you're still with a guy as opposed to a firm. Like there there's no firm. There's no no collective thing. And that that was basically the the condition of venture capital in 2009, which is you you have been at this at this point we knew all the VCs really well and we had raised venture and we had worked with all these other companies that had that had raised venture. And and basically all of the sort of legacy venture firms at that point, they were all like that. They were all just like tribes of lone wolves. And then the thing that we knew that was not publicly known was generally speaking inside the firms they didn't like each other. Oh, I hear stories like this all the time. Right. And so it's like, you know, whatever. There's Joe and Mary, you know, who are partners in a venture firm and you're working with Joe and Mary has like a key connection that you that you need access to. And so he asks Joe, "Can Mary introduce me to so-and-so?" And what you don't know is they're having like a brutal fight. They you know, they're like trying to destroy each other cuz they're they're cuz they're fundamentally economics. They're they're going for, you know, the a greater slice of the of the profit pool. And so they're really going at it. And so we we just we saw example after example of a venture firm that was basically either two things actually. One is either melting down due to just internal strife and conflict. Um or by the way, the other was generational succession. So the other the other issue is a lot of the dominant venture firms in 2009 had been around for 30 or 40 years and they were now on their third generation of partners going to their fourth generation of partners. And and and you know, and again, it's the same thing. They they had been founded by dynamos and then they were, you know, the later generation people were were not like that. So we basically said, "Oh, the This is where the the Ovestin comes in." As we said, "Look, like that that's not going to last." And so our theory of it was what we call death of the middle or we sometimes the negative way to frame it is death of the middle. The positive way is the barbell. Uh which is what's happening in all these other industries, which is basically the the industry gets stretched apart like taffy. Um and and and what you what you get is you you get this barbell thing. And on on one side of the barbell, you get early-stage angel seed investor who are really like first money in, like, you know, staying very light on their feet, writing a relatively small check, but like being involved in companies extremely early on. Um you know, taking a lot of risk. And then on the other side, you get basically scale platforms, right? So you you know, you get large-scale enterprises that that have like a lot of throwaway, a lot of access, very big networks and then access to a lot of money. The other comparison we always make is to retail shopping, right? Which is there used to be department stores like Sears and JCPenney, which basically where the the the brand promise was pretty good selection of products and pretty good prices. All right. And then now those are dead. And what you have instead are boutiques like the Gucci store or the Apple store. And then you've got these super scale e-commerce companies like like Walmart and Amazon. And we're at the point where it's just like there's no reason ever go to a department store cuz it's got less selection than Walmart and Amazon and it but it doesn't have the quality tier and the special experience of a Gucci or or Apple. But you had that thought in mind when you started A16Z.

アンドリーセン#20

コアのテーゼは同じだ。具体は大きく変わったが、コアは「スタートアップ、起業家、創業者が世界の進歩のコアエンジンになる」だった。今はむしろ以前より興味深い。始めた頃は、創業者が会社を経営する、というアイデア自体がまだ論争的だった。

EN

Yeah, 100%. Yeah, exactly. Okay. It was a conceptual leap for venture capital at the time, but the exact same thing had happened in private equity. The exact same thing had happened in hedge funds. The exact same thing had happened in investment And you knew that by what? Just reading right? So like investment investment banks are the classic example. So if if you read about the sort of the original investment banks in the US between like 1880 and 1920, they were all like boutique venture capital firms in the 1970s, 1980s in the US. And there was like 20 guys. And these are more like merchant bankers. Yeah. Well, and so the the the the the classic story is that which I love so much. So J JP Morgan one of my kind of favorite historical figures and and and JP JP Morgan was an example of that. The JP Morgan investment bank was like this this basically this It had It was very important, but it was like this tiny little operation. It was a, you know, fit in a single office. It was, you know, probably 20 principals and some office staff or something. It would, you know, it's not it was not large. Um and and actually the the the the hidden secret to to to JP Morgan was he was the son. The the The father was Junius Morgan. Okay. I literally when you were talking, I was like, "Wait, you you you I I was shocking that you would say pick him because I actually found his father more formidable individual than him." He was. So he was. Which I I It's almost always the case with any famous public figure. It's the father is almost always a more interesting story. Which a lot of examples of that. But however, yeah, so Junius Morgan and then and then JP Morgan filled a specific economic role that's gotten lost in history, which is basically Junius Morgan the Junius Morgan Bank was in London the JP Morgan Bank was in New York and and what the Morgan family was doing was they were funneling money from the old slow growth economy of Europe into the new high growth economy economy of the US. But again, it was exactly your point. Like it was this little boutique family operation. The other great thing about that era of history is these these were they were they were all bifurcated by religion. They were the Protestant investment banks and they were the Jewish investment banks and they did not mix. No, not at all.

センラ#21

2008、2009でも?

EN

Completely different worlds and as a consequence JP Morgan was the Protestant banks like like JP Morgan were able to fund like the railroads which were considered like the real businesses of the time. Yeah. But then like all the disreputable stuff like movie companies and like department stores like that those are all the Jewish investment By the way when Jewish almost entirely Jewish founders. With like Goldman and JP Morgan is the big survivor of that today in the form of JP Morgan Chase and then and then on the Jewish side it's Goldman Sachs. You know, it's it's the great survivor. But again, if you go back there were So that's you consider that the the barbell in investment banking. You have the the JP Morgan kind of like family partnership and then you have the complete scale of like Goldman Sachs.

アンドリーセン#22

非常に論争的だった。当時、子供が会社を回していると強く批判された有名企業もあった。

EN

And so what happened was both JP both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs started out 100 years ago. They were on the one side of the 100 100 years ago they were actually in the middle. They were they were kind of again this sort of you know, they were boutiques but they were like of their time. They were like you today you call them like mid-market you know, who's sometimes called bulge bracket you know, kind of thing. As opposed to just like a solo operator or something. Actually the way JFK's father got started was he literally hung out a shingle in the 1920s which is Joseph P. Kennedy banker. Yeah. You know, private banker and he like just did deals and he was he was like an angel investor of the time and so and then you had the big commercial banks but the big commercial banks had no interest in issuing loans to these speculative crazy you know, entrepreneurs. And so in that time JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs and Kuhn Loeb and Drexel and all these other kind of mid-market banks Morgan Stanley which became Morgan Stanley were kind of these mid things. Now what's happened you know, sitting here 100 years later those are now the the scale players. The ones who didn't scale are kind of long forgotten. Having said that there's one firm that survives in the old model and that's Allen & Company. And there are other boutique investment banks today but Allen & Company was founded in the 1920s and has you know, has is uniquely the one that survived in the in the original model of boutique and deliberately being a boutique investment bank. And it stayed that way for 100 years. And so one way to think about it is that today that's the barbell in banking which is Allen Company on the one side and then JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs on the other side. I found one of my all-time favorite quotes when I was reading the book Zero to One. The quote says the single most powerful pattern I have noticed is that successful people find value in unexpected places and they do this by thinking about business from first principles instead of formulas. That is exactly what AppLovin has done with their new advertising platform Axon. Axon is the most powerful advertising platform in a generation. Axon allows you to capture undivided attention. Axon ads are full screen videos that are watched for an average of 35 seconds. Retention that blows other ad platforms out of the water and you can launch in minutes. You set the goal and Axon achieves it. No complex setup, no expertise needed. And Axon scales quickly. They can put your ads in front of over a billion potential customers. Other businesses have seen immediate results, scaled to hundreds of thousands of dollars of spend per day and increased their revenue by millions and most advertisers aren't even thinking about this channel yet. Less than 1% of advertisers have access to Axon. So you want to get started quickly and you can do that by going to axon.ai. So are you reading about this while you're founding the firm before you're founding the firm? Like Both Both. Ben and I spent about a year and a half planning the firm and part part of it was he was in we call it industrial servitude. He was working for Hewlett Packard after we sold our company to HP. So he he was a he was running a big part of HP at the time. And so we we couldn't literally start a new full-time thing until he got free of that. So we had a year and a half you know, to kind of to kind of study up and kind of work. And because you had this this period from 2003 or 2002 when you're doing angel investing you know, a lot till you start your company 6 7 years later you're observing all of the weaknesses in the model and that's where you have hey why don't we take the CAA think Ovitz calls it like a phalanx where it's like if you have one agent at CAA you have all of us and they would like roll deep. I think he says in his book like they it was like oh my agent's coming to the premiere. No, it's like 20 agents are coming and I think they would dress like the same kind of suit maker and like they were intentionally trying to to intimidate like their competition. Armani suits Sulka shirts was a shirt maker in in Beverly Hills and so we're you know, all super collars white shirts and then I think he had a bulk purchase deal I think with the local Jaguar dealer and the legend at least has it is that the license plates all said CA1 CA2 CA3. And so like you'd go to a premiere and there would be like 20 Jags lined up. And then 20 guys in identical suits coming out. And yeah, just this is exactly the thing. It's just like you know, that's that's the Hollywood version but like just imagine the psychological impact of that if you're just like an old school agent. This is sort of that you know, Michael's a very dear friend. He you know, he he became very controversial over the years and the reason he became so controversial I think is just cuz he smoked his competition so severely. Like he pounded them so hard. There was no response. You're just a guy you're just a guy working for an old agency and you've got your clients in these 20s … are showing up and like it's just yeah, it's this force. And the clients if you talk to them by the way you know, a lot of his clients were you know, still still active today you know, from from the period if you talk to them it's just like yeah, it's just a no-brainer. It's like do you want to work with the guy or do you want to work with the firm? It's just obvious. He has I don't know if he told you all these stories. Did he tell you about the his morning schedule? I think The like getting on the bike doing the No, no, for the firm for the firm for the firm for the firm. So so So this is again something that's specific to Hollywood but it's it's a great example of it. Okay. So the agency business at at the time he started CAA the agency business is like 90 years old or something right? It like started out doing vaudeville bookings and like music halls and like it it had been around for like decades and so the people involved in it had had decades to think about like the best way to do it and then they had arrived at a set of practices and one of the practices I I think I'm getting this right. One of the practices was at every agency they would have their staff meeting in the morning at 9:00 a.m. And they would basically share you know, whatever information was going to get shared in the agency would get shared at that point. You know, you know, this studio head wants a script to do. He wants to do a crime thriller and here's a script and whatever and then you know, this is like the point where there would be a minimal you know, whatever minimal handoff in system to the other agency and and so this is where everybody would kind of get updated and so the the staff the staff meeting would go from like 9:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. And then at 10:00 a.m. they would start calling their clients and they'd be like oh you know, we heard there's a you know, whatever there's going to be a casting call for you know, this great new role for this professional fee or whatever and you should consider doing that. And so of course Michael's like all right, well we'll have our staff meeting at 7:00 a.m. We'll be done at 8:00. Yeah. Between 8:00 and 9:00 we'll call all the clients. By the way, we won't just call our clients. We'll call their clients. Right? And so imagine you're whatever Paul Newman and you've got some agent you've been working with for 20 years and he calls you at your agent calls you at 11:00 and it's like I've got this great role and you say oh the guys at CAA called me about that 3 hours ago. And and your agent's like they don't represent you and Paul's like yeah, isn't it great? Isn't that fantastic? And so you just again you just like you just repeat that a thousand times and it's just it to the client it's just like completely obvious what to do. And and so yeah, so the the the more reason I go through this the the moral of the story is again it's sort of this this idea incumbency you know, incumbency status quo like you you just end up you end up with you end up in any business you just end up with all these embedded assumptions. Generally and then you know, 90 years later right? So the so the founders of the agencies were 90 years ago they weren't involved anymore. So the people who were running competitive agencies were managers not right? Same thing managers not founders. Right? And so the and the thing a manager never does unless they're under duress is is is reconsider fundamental assumptions. Like they hate that. Like they like that's not the whole point of running something big is you don't have to do that. You get to run the big thing at scale. You don't have to like go in and like reinvent it from scratch. Like that sounds like a nightmare. Right? And so but but anyways as a consequence of that you end up with like all these embedded assumptions that are basically just like unspoken nobody's questioning is not happening and if you take the time you can kind of go in and go back you know, first principles you can kind of go in and you can say okay, well how did they arrive at that? What what we found in this industry I mean this is what our founders do every day is just an industry after industry after industry there's all these embedded assumptions that made sense in like 1970 or 1930 or 1880 that just don't make sense anymore. I love that you did that. I always say it's like not what you do it's how you do it. And if the idea that you could take I'm like I'm not running a talent agency but there's so many of these principles that I could apply to venture capital. You and your blog archive which I absolutely love and I told you I've read like multiple times. I did episodes on it. You would give advice to like young people and it's like my advice is like go work in an industry where that's still the founders of that industry are still working. Right. When I read Ovitz's book the way I would summarize his approach because he is in this big stodgy slow moving you know, very bureaucratic organization is like oh mediocrity is always invisible until passion shows up and exposes it. Oh interesting. Yes, right. And that's what he did. Yeah, that's right. He's just like there's so many things you guys could be doing better here. I can't do it in the and I remember correctly he took some of these ideas to his boss.

センラ#23

君はシリコンバレーの歴史の百科事典みたいな頭を持っている。僕は30〜40冊読んだ程度。アタリ創業者ノーラン・ブッシュネルの本で、彼が27歳だった頃の話がある。アタリが成長し始めたら年上のプロCEOにすぐ置き換えられるのが普通で、彼が置き換えられなかったのは過剰に稀だった、と。それより前に例はあった?

EN

yeah, yeah. Cuz that guy was his mentor. I can't remember his name. He he he worked for the CEO of William Morris. Yeah. Which was the the biggest of the talent agencies at the time.

アンドリーセン#24

クリストファー・コロンブス。アレキサンダー大王。トマス・ジェファーソン。歴史を通じて、偉大なものの多くは、この超カリスマ的創業者タイプ——意志の力の創業者タイプ——が建てて動かしてきた。ヘンリー・フォード。

EN

were you were you and Ben essentially just designing what you wish you had when you were founders? Yeah, that's right. And and again again again that maybe a cheat code but yeah, if if you've been the customer obviously this this all becomes a lot more obvious. I I don't know if you want to answer this question now but Warren Buffett's shareholder letters he has this great line where it's like really important to pick to to play against weak competition. Did you feel that there was going to be like that that point in time in venture capital history that that you were you were going to be playing against weak or weaker competition? I would say not exactly. We didn't view them as weak. We we viewed them as basically we viewed them as running on a status on a status quo set of ideas. And so and to be clear like we we part of why we think about this way we had to raise money from at the time in the time what were probably the two best venture capital firms. So Kleiner Perkins in the 90s and I worked with John Doerr very closely for 5 years and that escaped and then we we I thought we raised money from from Benchmark when they were like king of the hill and Andy Rachleff who was one of the founders of the firm and is a you know, legendary brilliant VC. And so we we had worked with we just had you know, actually in history we had worked with two of the whatever top five or whatever people in the field, you know, for a long time. And and and and they were and are, by the way, um brilliant at running on on the model that that that they that that that existed. John was brilliant at that. Andy was brilliant at that. They're still brilliant today. It was less of a competition of well, these people are soft or these people aren't smart or anything. It was none of that. It was no, they're they're really good at executing against this particular playbook. So, that and by the way, that's why it's okay. Like if we're going to do this, we need to be we need to be playing by by a different playbook. There was no such thing as like scale venture capital. Yeah. It's a top down. Because because the firms all hit this they all hit this limit. They they all fundamentally hit this limit. They all hit this limit where they just could the the the the idea of a of a like partnership of equals or even a even a hierarchical partnership. Like it just it break it just breaks at some point cuz there's just too much internal dissension. It is too hard to coordinate and then and then everybody's fighting for slices of a what was viewed at the time to be a fixed-size pie. Um and so none of the none of the other firms could they they they structurally there was just no way to get to scale. Where else did you take ideas from besides the agent business in Hollywood and like the merchant bank investment banking industry? Well, I mean it was just very obvious that it happened in private equity. Like it it you know, this this was the the this was the time when like it was actually really this was around the time when like KKR and firms like it were hitting their stride with they were actually building like a lot of operational capabilities in house. Um they were actually building their own actually investment banks in house. Um one of the things we've never done, but it's always been on the ideal list is to actually just have an in-house bank. Um and and and KKR had had had actually done that. Just just built a captive bank. Uh and so they you know, they they had done a bunch of things like that. And so we so we saw it happening, which is the mid-tier um private equity firms were collapsing. And you either needed a solo, you know, very light on your feet kind of solo operator on the one side doing small deals or you needed to have a scale platform like KKR. It happened in hedge funds. Um it happened in But I mean it had a long so actually actually the TV show Mad Men. Uh Mad Men tells the structural story of this happening in the advertising field in the '60s and '70s. Um and and I I will ruthlessly spoil Mad Men cuz it's been it's been it's been off the air for like 20 years at this point, but um you know, a big part of the arc of Mad Men is those guys are working at Sterling Sterling Cooper is a classic mid-market ad agency. Um all right. And and then and then it's and then it whatever the third third season they they sell it to McCann, which was the the scaled player at the time. And and they show you all the pros and they clearly talked to people who had been through this cuz they showed you all the pros and cons of working for McCann cuz McCann's this giant machine. And so Don Draper's used to like making all the creative decisions and now he's just in this conference room arguing with people um until he just like gets up and walks out. But then Don Draper and Roger Sterling start their own startup. They start uh Sterling Cooper Draper Price. That's the second one. Which starts out as a as a true startup as a true boutique startup. And then they have this whatever year and a half just just … hell. Like they can't get anywhere. They can't get clients like cuz cuz they're too small. You know, they're they're they're subscale. And so it it kind of and then I think I think in the end I forget it's venture capital, but I think in the end they end up I think they end up selling it. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Sorry. I got it wrong. They sell the first one to the British ad ad agency um that just like completely destroys it. And then they sell the second one to McCann. So so so they actually show that process happening twice. Um and so that that Again, if you go back to history, that that is what happened to the ad agencies basically between the '40s and the '70s. Like basically television catalyzed that. Like when when television emerged, advertising became a much bigger deal than it had been before and it just it had to be professionalized in a different way. The other thing that happened is of course the external environment changes, right? So So everything we just talked about just has to do with the internal mechanics of how these things run, but but the other thing that happens is the external environment changes, right? And so part of what I think what Michael would say, I think he would agree with this, part of what made MCA possible is at one point basically Hollywood was just movies. And then there was like whatever a low kind of TV division. And and by the '70s and '80s the you know, Hollywood was becoming much bigger than just movies, right? It was movies and TV and advertising and music and sports and you know, you know, politics and culture and like all kinds of things. In fairness to the kind of our competitors, um you know, Silicon Valley between call it 1950 to 2010 was primarily just a tools business, right? Primarily the companies that you know, starting with Hewlett-Packard, the companies that we all backed and built were basically just building tools. You'd build a tool like an operating system or a disk drive or something and you'd sell it to people and they'd figure out what to do with it. Um it was right around the time we started our firm that the valley was going from being primarily tools businesses to actually building um directly competitive companies in incumbent industries. Right? And so Airbnb going directly into the hospitality industry, right? So, alternate universe Airbnb is just boutique booking hotel software. Right? For for any Airbnbs. It's a tiny little boutique business building basically little spreadsheet software. But no, Airbi Brian Chesky decided, brilliantly, um we're just going to like go into the hospitality business and compete with hotels directly. Um Uber and Lyft in the old world were just taxi dispatch software. In the new world they're full transportation providers. Uh Tesla in the old world would have just been software for self-driving cars. Tesla in the new world builds, you know, the entire car. By the way, Facebook same thing. Prior to Facebook, if you built like online ad, you know, software, you were selling it to the media companies. Mark's like, "No, we're just going to be the media company. Like we're we're just going to build the entire thing." And so this was the other thing that happened was, you know, for us was that that was right around the pivot point when the valley's ambitions went from just building tools to going directly into incumbent industries. And and and then this goes back to the scale thing. It's like, "Okay, why do you need to scale a venture firm?" It's cuz the companies need to scale. Right? And and and and then of course AI now makes that crystal clear, right? Cuz right, the winning AI companies are raising, you know, billions, tens of billions, in some cases hundreds of billions of dollars. Right? The old world of $10 million or $30 million or $50 million checks, you know, where where VCs tap out is just not a relevant irrelevant thing anymore. But did you know the scale was changing at the time you founded the firm? We had pretty good idea. So, I'd been on I'd been involved with Facebook, um you know, basically you know, informally since inception and then formally on the board since 2007. And so I I saw the thing hit the knee in the curve. It was just very clear it is to us and it's just like very clear that you know, how big it was going to get. Oh, it it was going to get much much bigger than the internet 1.0 uh companies had gotten. Um and so there was that. What else? It was also around the time Apple was directly entering the cell phone market, which is another great example of this. Um Silicon Valley didn't used to make cell phones. And the reason why cell phones weren't made by Silicon Valley, they were made by these like giant industrial companies like Sony and Nokia and whatever um and Motorola in Illinois or whatever. And then Silicon Valley would make the chips that go into them or the software. And of course Steve was like, "Yeah, we'll screw that. We're just going to make a cell phone, right?" There were these signals that it was happening. And then the other thing was just the the internet itself was maturing, right? Um and so, you know, at that point the consumer internet was 15 years in um and and we had, you know, seen every part of that. And so we you know, we saw I forget what the number was, but that was probably around the time the global internet penetration was like crossing a billion users on its way to 5 billion. Yeah, you have a very interesting lived experience where like you were there at the very beginning of the internet. One thing that um I'm fascinated by and I that is actually was going to be the first question um for you cuz I've never heard you speak about this at least on a podcast, but your partnership and relationship with Jim Clark. You were what, 20 when you met him? How old were you? I was old-fashioned. I actually graduated from college and got my degree. Very Stone Age uh concept these days. Um so that was in 1994. So, I was about 20 22 22. So, there's this great book. I don't really think you like the book by written by Michael Lewis, Silicon Valley story. I've skipped it. I've read it twice just because I don't know if anything's in there is true, but he the the the portrait he paints of this very eccentric character is just wildly entertaining to me. But what's shocking to me is when you talk to young founders, I'm like, "This guy started three I think he was the first person in history just to found three separate billion-dollar technology companies. And almost no one knows who he is. Can you just talk about how you met him? What was like working with him?" I knew exactly who he was. And the reason was because uh his company Silicon Graphics, his first company, they were the company in the valley between like call it 1980 19 call it yeah, '87 to '94 or something. They they were like whatever Google or OpenAI or whatever, you know, copy copy of Like they were like the company. And and by that I mean like they were the company where the smartest people in the industry all wanted to work there. The prod they they built the products that were like the coolest products you could possibly imagine. They had this incredibly young and vibrant and dynamic culture. Um and then they hit this like cultural moment that was just incredible in I think '92, which is yeah, which was the turning point in in the movie business when computer graphics really kicked in. And then the two movies back-to-back were Jurassic Park and Terminator 2. Built on the machines they made.

センラ#25

待って。マイアミでジャレッド・クシュナーと一緒に夕食したとき、君が国の創業者を次々挙げたのを思い出した。現代の世界が「普通」で、過去は変で愚かだった、という最新性バイアスがある。でも数千年あるやり方の方が普通で、僕らが歴史的に変な時代にいるのかもしれない。

EN

Built on the machines they made, the technology they made. Technology Jim invented was the technology that made that possible. And those movie, you know, those are still two of the great all-time, you know, movies. Um and but but but at the time, I mean I still remember the chills that you get seeing dinosaurs on screen. It's just like, "This is And then there's this company that builds the machines that do this." By the way, they're the Silicon Graphics computers are actually in the movie. There's a scene in Jurassic Park where the kids are navigating through Unix. Yeah. And it was actually the uh it was actually the 3D software. It was actually those those were actually the the Silicon Graphics Silicon Graphics computers. Um and so like they they just that was like this moment where they were just they're just like the the absolute it company of all time. But by the way, their legacy lives on in in in Nvidia. Like that that that Nvidia is Silicon Graphics basically with with one turn it's like a traitor or something. It had to be a new company for reasons we could describe to to do the GPUs instead of the work instead of the the workstations and servers. Nvidia fundamentally is is based on Jim's ideas. That's where that that stuff all comes from. And so he he was already legendary. You you And and again, he was one of these he was the full deal. He was legendary as a innovator in technology cuz you know, he's a PhD in computer science. And he actually he actually he himself invented the original I forget what they called it. I think it was the reality engine. The the original interactive 3D graphics on a chip thing was actually him. I think it was like his PhD thesis. Um and then and then he started the company and then he ran the company. And then and then and then by the way, and then the VCs brought in professional manager and By the way, and the reason we know about Nvidia today and not SGI is because of this founder-manager issue, which we could talk about. No, let's talk about that real quick. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Cuz I don't remember this part of the story. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, now by the way, there there's two sides to the story. And and and and and and I wasn't there. Um Uh and so I I just reflexively side with Jim Clark, but I'll I'll I'll try to at least represent both sides of the story. So, So so Jim I don't even remember what's in Lewis's book, but like Jim's like a true Jim is like a true He's like an Elon. He's like a true Elon Steve Jobs level guy. Um and so like incredibly creative, incredibly bright, incredibly charismatic. But like he volatile. Like he's he's he's he's exciting. Like he's exciting. It's just like being around him is just like incredibly exciting. There's always something something new. He always has new ideas. And and again, that was in that time where I was just like, okay, that's the personality type that clearly can't run the company. And so, the VCs brought in a guy out of Hewlett-Packard who'd been trained at Hewlett-Packard cuz at the at the time what happened is he wanted to hire a professional CEO. He wanted to hire a general manager out of either Hewlett-Packard or IBM, one of the two training grounds for this guy. So, they brought in a really really sharp guy who I don't really know. I think I met him once. I don't really know. By all accounts, he was like very he was like a very good example of this kind of general manager type who became a became a CEO. He He took over he took over the company. And and by the way, like in his defense, under him the company scaled enormously. Like I forget when he took it over, but it was like '87 or '88 or something. And then, you know, by the time I got to the Valley in '94, like this company become huge and, you know, whoever's running the company gets at least some credit for that. So, but but anyway, they got in this classic fight. Like they they got in this classic fight. And the classic fight was, you know, it's the same story every time. The founder's like founder signing a CEO and the founder's like, "Mr. CEO, we need to do things completely different." And the CEO's like, "No, like what we're doing is working. Like stop … with stop … with things working." And the founder's like, "No, it's working now, but it's not going to work in the future." And the manager and the the CEO's like, "Well, then we'll deal with it in the future." And the founder's like, "You can't wait to deal with it in the future because by the time the future arrives it's going to be too late." And the manager's like, "Why are you in my pants? I'm like making you all this money. The company's super successful. Like get out of my shorts." Right? And and you get into this as you see this and that was exactly the deadlock that they got into. And Jim Clark basically made two predictions as the founder of Silicon Graphics. So, Silicon Graphics at the time was selling their computers basically started list price at like $50,000 for a desktop workstation and then scale up into the millions. And Jim was like, "Look, two things are going to happen. Um but it's amazing that he And you figured this out by like 1991 or something." He said, "Two things are going to happen." He said, "Number one, everything that we sell today for $50,000 is going to go on a chip and that's going to go on a card and it's going to go on a PC and it's going to cost 300 bucks. And either we're the company that's going to make that or we're going to get destroyed." Right? Which by the way, is what happened. That's Nvidia. Like that's what actually happened, right? So, he was completely correct about that. The other thing that he had was he's like, "Look, this idea of standalone computers is not going to be the thing. These computers are all going to get networked together and the network is going to become the important thing." At the time there were there were different terms. There was people were using terms like information superhighway or video on demand or 500 channels. You had you had all these kind of concepts kind of coalescing around what became the internet. And even before the internet kind of became a mainstream thing, Jim was just like, "Look, it's just inevitable that this is all going to become connected and then the function of a computer is no longer going to be mainly what just a computer does. It's going to be the fact that it can talk to all the other computers. And and and and we need to do that." And and to do that, he actually he actually went to Japan. He actually got this incredible deal. Nintendo, you know, then and now was like, you know, this giant video game company. So, he actually had this deal with Nintendo where number one is he actually built and Silicon Graphics actually did this actually built the original 3D graphics chip for a for a consumer game player, the Nintendo 64. So, he did that deal. And then he went to Time Warner, which at the time was, you know, this very important media company doing all kinds of things. And and he struck a deal with them to do what was called interactive which was basically pre-internet. Basically, it was like Netflix before Netflix in like 1991, right? Like amazing foresight. But again, he and the CEO got in this conflict and the CEO's like, "Look, I we just can't we can't we have to we have to focus on the thing that we're doing. We're not going to do these things." And so, Jim did the classic founder thing and he left. And when I met him, basically that was the state that he was in, which was, "Okay, like, you know, I, Jim, I'm like in the prime of my life. I know I I have all these ideas. I don't know exactly what to do with my next company, but I know it should be a software company not a hardware company. I know it needs to be a company that is able to anticipate these changes that are happening in the world. And I know that Silicon And he was very sad about this. Silicon Graphics is not the company that's going to be able to do these things. And so, I have to build the the new company that's going to do it." Brad Jacobs has started eight separate billion-dollar companies. He said, "I've come to know a lot of extremely successful people in my life, and they all have one thing in common. They think differently than most people. All of them, to a person, have rearranged their brains to prevail at achieving big goals in turbulent environments where conventional thinking often fails." What Brad noticed is that great business leaders are pattern spotters, but you can't spot patterns if you can't see all of your data. Most businesses only use 20% of their data. Why? Because 80% of customer intelligence is invisible. It's hidden in emails, transcripts, and conversations. That's where HubSpot comes in. With HubSpot, all of your data comes together so you can see the patterns that matter. This is important because when you know more, you grow more. And that is a pattern that never fails. Visit hubspot.com today. That is hubspot.com. I wanted to hear more about what it was like working with him, but there was a very astute observation you made in your blog archive cuz you were trying to, you know, essentially this post was trying to educate founders just like recruiting is the most important thing you're doing at the very beginning of something, maybe forever, and you're you're underestimating how difficult it is. And you tell the story of Jim Clark in the blog archive. You're like, "This guy was a legend." He was. Like most famous person, best entrepreneur. And he's like, "He tried to recruit all these other people." And like I don't know, it was like 100 people. And you're like, "You were one of one of two or three that actually followed through and took the chance and jumped and started working with him." Yeah, and again, this is like, I don't know, Zuckerberg or Sergey Brin or Elon or whatever decides to start a company like that. That was his candlepower wattage in the community at that time. And so, yeah, you would think that the obvious thing people would just like say, you know, "Jim Clark wants to start a company with you." You know, just the obvious thing is you just say yes. Like it was not it was not happening. And so, the I don't know if I told the story about the the crispest memory is a dinner of 12 of us at El famous Italian restaurant in Palo Alto called El Fornaio. It's where a lot a lot of these companies were formed. It was Jim's favorite restaurant at the time. So, Jim had like a dozen of us, us being people who were like in existing companies who were like basically technical people who he knew. One of the things he was he was constrained he had a non-solicit agreement with Silicon Graphics. And so, he couldn't just rip people out. Um And he didn't want to violate that. And so, he needed he needed to basically reach out to the technical community and and find new collaborators. So, there were like a dozen of of us in there. And I I remember that I remember that dinner very precisely for for two reasons. Number one is I was the only one of the dozen to basically to say yes. And then the other was it's the first time in my life I drank red red wine. And I didn't know what to make of it. And so, I kept sipping it trying to figure out if I liked it or not. And I didn't realize that I was getting completely hammered. Cuz I had no idea how to calibrate red wine. And so, the the true version of the story is, you know, I leave the dinner and I'm like, "Wow, this is amazing. Like, you know, I'm going to say yes to this. We're going to do this." And I I go to my car in the parking garage in Palo Alto across the street. And my brand new car, my first, you know, new car I've ever owned, right? My brand new car. And I and I and I and I get in and I pull it out and I rip the entire front end of the car off. It's like this screaming metal. It's this sound. So, like the whole front of my car is just like hanging on the ground. I'm like, "Oh, … me." So, anyway, I park the car, get out of the car, walk home. No Uber this time?

アンドリーセン#26

100、200、300年前なら、何かを始める人がそれを動かす人になるのは当然だった。誰も疑問に思わなかった。このトピックでいつも勧める本が、1940年代のジェームズ・バーナム『The Machiavellians』だ。20世紀の天才の一人だ。彼は資本主義の歴史におけるビジネス組織の二つの基本モードを描いた。

一つはブルジョワ資本主義——創業者が会社を動かし、ドアに名前がある。1920年代のヘンリー・フォードが古典的アーキタイプで、今日ならイーロン・マスクだ。昔はフォード・モーター・カンパニーだったが、今みんなテスラとスペースXはイーロンだと知っている。国も都市も宗教も、歴史の規範は創業者が率いることだった。

もう一つがマネジャリズム。1880〜1920年代という変な時期——現代世界が形作られた時期——の産物だ。リーダーと対比される「マネージャー」という概念の台頭。だから経営スクール、ハーバードやスタンフォードのビジネススクール。創業者の代わりにマネージャーが会社を動かす。多くの種類のビジネスに使えるスキルとしてのマネジメント。1970年代にはコングロマリットになり、「良いマネージャーがいれば会社が何をやっているかは関係ない、30個の違うことをやれ」になった。

バーナムは、人々が価値判断を下して古い「ドアに名前」モデルより良い・悪いと言うだろうが、現代世界ではすべてが大きく、電力網や道路網や自動車産業のような大規模システムは、大規模システムを動かす訓練を受けた人に動かす必要がある、と言った。創業者の性格タイプとマネージャーの性格タイプは違う。大きく複雑になるとハンドオフが起きる。それがノーラン・ブッシュネルが語るモデルであり、シリコンバレーを50年支配したモデルだ。

問題は、その議論が「マネージャーがうまくやる」と仮定していることだ。過去30年、西洋で確実に見える支配的テーマの一つは、マネージャー全般は大した仕事をしていない、ということだ。別の言い方をすると、マネージャーは長く現状維持のものを動かすのには向いているかもしれない。銀行、電力会社、車が車のままなら。でも変化が来ると、創業者タイプではないマネージャーは変化に対処できない。

スペースXが古典例だ。トップ経営スクールで訓練されたプロマネージャーがロケット打ち上げ会社にいて、スペースXと競争しているとする。100年、ロケット産業の前提は「ロケットは一回使って終わり」で、打ち上げ経済は毎回新しいロケットを作ることで支配されていた。そこにカリフォルニアの狂った奴が、お尻で着陸するロケットを出してくる。再現できない。その時点でマネジメントスキルに何の意味がある? 人間活動の多くの領域でそのシフトが起きている。バーナムのテーゼが崩れるのはここだ——スケールで動かす必要はあるが、適応できないからマネージャーは実際にはできない。

EN

No Uber. Yeah, for a mile walk at, you know, whatever, 11:00 at night with, you know, six bottles of red wine. And you're what, 22?

センラ#27

で、創業者はスケールで動かすことを学べる。

EN

No, 20 22, yeah, exactly. 22. And I was like, I think I probably won't mention this to Jim. I don't know, there's some wild stories in that book. He might have admired you even more. He might have. He yes, yes, yes. How many founders of the company is just you and him? And so, originally yeah, originally it was him and me. Yeah, we we we started the company. And it we had a long it was again one of these things where we had a we had long conversations about like what to do. Well, good. Okay, so then the problem the problem that he had was there was the idea of doing the graphics chip, but like yeah, that's what Nvidia did, but Nvidia was essentially a spin-off of SGI. But like at that time, starting a new chip company from scratch would have been tough. And he didn't want to compete with SGI doing that. And then and then the interactive What do you call the interactive lost in history, but this interactive television street like it wasn't time for that yet. It wasn't actually time for Netflix yet. And so, it like the the it was going to be cost-prohibitive. Time Warner had rolled out this interactive television thing in Orlando, Florida to 500 people. Yeah, and Microsoft was involved. So, they were doing a ton of Oracle. At the at the time like all the big companies were So, these Bill Gates spider fees. Yeah, exactly. He talks about that a lot. But the CAPEX per, you know, house was like $50,000 or something cuz you had to have like a Silicon Graphics workstation in the house. And it just it wasn't going to work. And so, he couldn't figure that out. And then we we we cycled through a whole bunch of ideas. We actually went he actually went back to Nintendo and we we almost pulled the trigger on basically building what today you'd call like Xbox Live or was it called PlayStation PlayStation network or Xbox Live? Like an online gaming service for the Nintendo 64 in 1994, which might have been a good idea. We thought it was too early. We almost did that. And then what happened literally was the internet. You know, I had worked on the internet in in college. And then and then, you know, this is, you know, fortunately only a few months later, but the internet just kept growing. Like it just Hold on. Hold on, Mark.

アンドリーセン#28

それが理論で、うちのテーゼの大きな部分だ。まだ論争的なトピックだ。

EN

Yes. You had worked on the internet a little bit That's a little bit modest. Well, I think a lot of people listening to this will know, but you should probably explain how you were working on the internet. So, at the time it was not So, this is part of the story. At the time it was not that big of a deal. It's not nearly that much of a big of a deal at the time as it is as it's viewed now. So, so the internet I I I've told the story many times, so I won't go into huge detail. But yeah, so we, you know, a group of us at Illinois did this thing called Mosaic, which was the the first, as I said, first widely used web browser. Then the first one with graphics. And Explain what was different about what you made compared to what it existed before. Yeah, so the like previous web browsers were like text-based. So, there was like this nascent concept of the web, but it was like a it was like text-based terminals. And then it didn't have graphics. It wasn't point and click. You know, it didn't it didn't work in the way that you would like this kind of software to work. And by the way, it didn't also have like, no scripting language, no security. You know, none of the actual capabilities that like make make the browser a useful thing. And so, there there was this like nascent idea, but it but it needed to get built into a full thing. And so, we we built the original kind of full full thing full browser at Illinois. And then we also built the first kind of mainstream web server, like the the first web server again that kind of had everything that people needed. You know, this had been a project at at at college. And and then this was a and at the at the time the internet was not viewed as a consumer phenomenon. Wasn't it illegal to commercialize? Steve Case of AOL tells a story that he had to like lobby and get a law changed. That's right. What was Yeah. the details there? So the the internet as we know it today in the 1980s was called the NSFnet. NSF stands for National Science Foundation, which was a branch of the US government that funds research. Um and the National Science Foundation funded funded the internet. The reason I was able to do the work I was able to do at Illinois is cuz the NSF had actually dumped a ton of money into four four universities around the country to build what are called the supercomputer centers. And then those were also the main hubs for the NSFnet. And the function of the NSFnet was fundamentally to connect the supercomputers to all the people who were going to use them. And so it was a it was this government research academic program and it was like very exciting in the technical field, but there was no conception that like ordinary people are ever going to use any of this. Like it was just not not Nobody ever thought that this was a thing that that normies were going to use. Um And and so so NSF it's it's taxpayer funded. So the the government at least is not supposed to be funding businesses directly. Although sometimes they do. Um but um there was there was there was you know formal legal restrictions on on on on on on funding things with with with with commercial applications. And so what what there was is there was something called the AUP, the acceptable use policy. And the acceptable use policy said that that basically the the internet the internet the NSFnet turned internet was for academic and research use and commercial activities were strictly prohibited. Like literally not allowed. And again, it's just like oh as a taxpayer that makes total sense. Like I'm I'm glad my tax money's not going to fund something you know like that. But like as a user you're just like all right, that's nuts. Like that like that's clearly crazy, right? And and and if you if you took the conceptual leap to say to say no, this is going to escape the lab and this is going to be something normal people are going to use. Um then it just became obvious that it would have to have commercial activities. Yeah, and then AOL was one of the early pre-internet online services that wanted to connect to the internet. I think they famously connected to the internet in 1993. Do you know you know about the concept of eternal September? No. Oh, okay. So So There are two internets. There are two internets. There is the internet that existed before 1993 and the internet that existed after 1993. People who were on the internet before 1993 often describe it in utopian terms because it literally was like you take the whatever million smartest people in the world and you put them on a network together with like no commercial activity, no advertising, no nothing. Just the million smartest people in the world and you just like let them talk to each other. And it's just like amazing. It was like amazing. Like there was this the old messaging system was called Usenet and like the discussions on Usenet were just like absolutely spectacular. It's just like this. It was like It was amazing. It was like the most pure clean intellectual like vibrant space since like I don't know Athens in you know in 500 BC. It was just like this amazing phenomenon. And then AOL connected. AOL AOL had I don't know whatever million or two million people at that point. They connected they connected all the AOL users which were just normal people to the internet September 1993. And so so there it became eternal September, which is that's the day the internet changed. And by the way, I'm I'm I'm pro that. I'm glad that happened. But like the the pro and the con of that is that took the internet from this like ivory tower you know kind of thing to this basically mainstream consumer ordinary people thing, which of course is just a fundamentally different thing. It's you know obviously, right? The concept of eternal September literally was it was like when when every new wave of college graduates like graduated and got their first job and then went online. So so September is when September is when the new crop of like internet users showed up for a long time. So so the September effect didn't just happen once. It like happened over and over and over and over and over and over again. And every cycle of internet user would basically be like oh my god, this is great, but like it's all going to get ruined in September. Yeah. Right. And and so the internet that we live in today is is the result of

センラ#29

論争的?

EN

They could only see us now. 30 30 30 Septembers. Right. But yeah, by the way, there there was there was controversy there was controversy at the time about whether the internet whether the acceptable use policy should be revoked. Um there was controversy over whether normal people should should be on it or not. Um there was controversy over whether the kind of content normal people wanted to be on it should be allowed to be on it. Um there was controversy about whether there should be Like there was controversy we had quite a bit of flak at the time for putting images in web pages under the theory that that would like fundamentally make everything worse cuz you'd have like normie content. Um that would be bad. Um and then you know so so but like e-commerce By the way, advertising I remember when like I remember when the the There was actually a moment There was a guy there was a guy There was a guy named Sanford Wallace and he became known as Spamford Spamford Wallace and and he was literally he sent out the first spam message on on the internet in like 1992. And it was like literally it's like the first internet ad and it was like a spam for out of whatever legal services or something. Um and he just dropped it on Usenet and it was like a thermonuclear explosion cuz it was like you know, get this commercialized crap out of my out of my out of my newsfeed. Um and so so like all all of all of these things were like hot hot like controversial. Um I was generally on the other side of all these arguments cuz I was like look, this thing is great. Obviously everybody should have access to this. Obviously we need to connect everybody to this. Obviously to do that we need these these need to be businesses. There needs to be commerce. There needs to be advertising. Like all these things obviously need to happen. So is that the discussions you and Jim were having where you're like okay, we're going to start an actual company out of this? So yeah, so so that's how we got to the conversation Jim and I had which was basically like okay, cuz that was right at the pivot point. It was like in early '94. So this is like the AUP had just been revoked and it was just a and AOL had just done the first September and it was the whole thing was just about to tip. Um and I and I knew that. I knew that because I was tech support for the browser. Um personally. Now explain that.

アンドリーセン#30

創業者、とくに1日目の創業者は必ずしもこれに上手ではないからだ。テックでは、創業者は文字どおりまたは比喩的にラボに20年いてから会社を始める傾向がある。一人か小さなチームで技術を作ってきた。大きな組織を動かしたり上場会社を動かしたりしていない。スキルセットが欠けている。学ぶ意思が要り、能力も要る。できる人もできない人もいる。

でもファームのコアテーゼはここかもしれない——21世紀に重要なものを作るなら、創業者から始めてマネジメントを訓練する方が、マネージャーから始めて「新しいものを作る創業者」を訓練するよりずっと可能性が高い。このトレンドは強まっている。過去100年の古い企業・古い既存機関は、適応できないから信頼と信用が崩壊している。必要かつ十分だと思っていたシステムは実際には動かない。何か良いことが起きるなら、ヘンリー・フォードやイーロン・マスクタイプが実際にやらなければならない。

EN

Just me. Uh well so if you did Mosaic at the time was the browser everybody used. And so if you used Mosaic there was a you know submit a bug report or whatever you have a question submitted here and that went to an email box and that email box was me. And so I became tech support for the internet. For like you know a three years. Um I got all the emails. How many emails were you getting?

センラ#31

大多数は君に賛成してないと思う?

EN

Well there were actually two. That was one email box and the other email box Mosaic was actually created under by It was also funded by the National Science Foundation. So it was actually not legal The original license said you couldn't be used for commercial use. It was for academic and research and individual use. And so we had this thing we we did a deliberately ambiguous license. We said if you want to use the browser commercially, you need to email us to to arrange terms. Now we had no concept at all of what those terms would be, but we just said we we need to you know create this income stream. So I was getting bombarded with tech support requests. And by the way, tech support for the internet means you're tech support for everything. So it's like you know the old PCs had you know the they had CD-ROM trays. You press the button the CD-ROM tray comes out. You put you put the disk in the thing. And the problem is a lot of people thought that those were cup holders. Right? So you press the button the cup holder comes out. You put your cup of coffee down. And then you know 10 seconds later the cup holder retracts back into the PC spills your coffee all over the place. You're like how the … do I keep the cup holder out? Right? It's like man Let me email Mark. Yeah, let me email Mark. You know, it's like sir, that's a that's a CD-ROM drive. Um so there was a lot of that. So so One of the funnier things you can always do In politics they call this focus groups, but you can you can user testing. You see it just over and over at tech companies. Take whatever amazing new thing you have and just put it in a put it in a room with like normal people and let them try to use it. And you just like learn so much about how much of a bubble that you're in Yeah. about the kind of things that you're familiar with that like normal people are just like I don't know what the hell any of this stuff is. So there there was a lot of that. But then I had this other email box which was all the all the commercial licensing requests. And so so I saw the consumer take off on the one side and then I basically I think that the and then the commercial requests hit like 400 messages of people wanting to like pay money for this thing. And so I basically took those to Jim and I was like There's a business.

アンドリーセン#32

もっと普通になりつつある。イーロンやスティーブ・ジョブズのようなアーキタイプの例があると売りやすい。マーク・ザッカーバーグも偉大なケーススタディだ。Facebookを始めたとき、彼は一度も就職したことがなかった。人をマネジメントしたことがないだけでなく、誰の下でも働いたことがなかった。ゼロから始めて、学習曲線は完全に公衆の目の中で垂直だった。今も垂直だ。大規模に動かすことを学ぶのに膨大な時間を使っている。しかもまだ創業者で、イノベーターで、何をすべきかのアイデアの泉だ。ダブルスレットの古典例だ。

他の創業者はそれを見て「自分もできる」と思う。スティーブ・ジョブズがノーラン・ブッシュネルを見たときの言葉そのものだ。「自分の会社を動かせる」。どれだけ速くシフトしたかもすごい。スティーブがヒューレット・パッカードで短期間働いた話がある。伝説では、ジョブズがマネージャーにピッチして「絶対にだめ。聞いた中でいちばんバカなアイデアだ。机から足を下ろして出ていけ」と言われた、というのがある。

EN

Yeah, there this this this is going to happen. And then we actually went to my under bite my old my old um my my old boss right at at NCSA actually had gone to We actually went to Washington in '93 to try to get NSF funding to staff a support desk. So that it wasn't me answering all the answering all the emails. And the National Science Foundation people were very nice and they were like yes, the National Science Foundation is not in the business of funding customer support desk for your for your software. And so I still have a denied NSF grant. would have backed up the whole thing um an academic project. But yeah, so like at that point it was like at least to Jim and me it was just obvious that that was going to be a business. By the way, again very controversial. The original press coverage on Netscape for the first like year was that these people would never make money. Like this is ridiculous. Like everybody knows the internet's free. Like everybody knows that none of this is going to work. So you know even even then

センラ#33

ウォズニアックがピッチしたのでは?

EN

you think the business model though? even then it was controversial. Was just literally licensing it?

アンドリーセン#34

そう、ウォズニアックがピッチした。別の話でジョブズがマネージャーに何かピッチした話もある。裸足だった頃だ。僕の好きなAppleの伝承は、Apple史上最初のセールスが、彼がバイクショップに裸足で入って行ったときだ。

すごいのは、ウォズは確実にHPに働いていて、僕が言っているのは1950〜60年代のHPだ。1940年代、デイブ・パッカードとビル・ヒューレットはあの創業者タイプで、二人合わせて約50年会社を動かした。シリコンバレーは大きくHPの上に建てられた。オリジナルのシリコンバレー企業だ。創業者が50年動かしたのに、人々は「創業者は会社を動かすべきではない」と結論づけた。あまりに明白なのに、その事実を迂回するために精巧な理論の格子を構築しなければならなかった、という類のことだ。

EN

It was a combination of things. So it was it was definitely software licensing. And when we we we did this thing up front the browser was free, but the server software cost money. And then we And then we out of the gate started building all these we called applications server side applications. So we built like the first publishing system. We we built the first like publishing system for like running a newspaper or magazine online. You know, content management system. We built the first e-commerce system for selling you know, this is pre-Amazon. So we built the first e-commerce system for selling things online. Um so so so we we we built a whole lot of that software. And then and then we we owned you know, the the main website that the browser had as its default homepage. And so we built the the original internet advertising business was was basically And so Netscape was the largest internet advertising company until I think '97. That's incredible. I didn't know that. pre-Yahoo cos yeah. Um and so yeah, so we we invented a people at the firm invented at the company invented I I don't think I don't exactly who gets credit, but like the original ad formats you know, were right around that time and a lot of them rolled out on on our site you know, first. And so it was it was literally it was advertising pre-Yahoo. It was it was e-commerce pre-Amazon. Um it was yeah, content pre you know, we literally sold I mean we put the Wall Street Journal online. It was our you know, that was our software that did that. Um and a lot a lot of other newspapers magazines all that all that stuff. And so yeah, it was a lot of that. And then it was the the web operation. And again, it was again it it all looks obvious in retrospect, but like again, it was like okay, when we started this like I don't know if the total number wasn't like So we started the company April '94. There couldn't have been more than two million people total online, right? And and then almost everybody was coming in over dial-up. This is like pre-broadband, right? So everybody's coming in on like 14.4 kilobit modems. And we're like hoping that people are going to upgrade to 56-kilobit modems. Like, you know, that that would be like super helpful. Computers at that time did not come with TCP/IP installed. Um so, to get your PC actually on the internet, you needed to you needed to buy a TCP/IP stack. Try explaining to a normal human being what a TCP/IP stack is. Like, it makes no sense at all. Uh so, that

センラ#35

HPはシリコンバレー史上いちばん影響力のある会社だった?

EN

to ask if they can put it next to the cup holder. Exactly. Yeah, I just like it was just like it was just like talking to Martians. All right? It It It Talking to us is like talking to Martians. And then, you know, monitors were, you know, like 3 ft deep and just like bathing you in radiation. You know, just you kind of hoping that the radiation stays up here and not, you know, everywhere else. In retrospect, it was it was like super early and it was all very And And then And then again, it was just like, "Okay, e-commerce. Like, are people going to buy things online?" It's like, "I don't know. Maybe." But like the press at that time was just like wall-to-wall. Like, "If you put your credit card number online, like hackers are going to steal it."

アンドリーセン#36

1940から1980までは確実にいちばん影響力があった。そのあとはおそらくインテル。インテルの創業者の伝記を読むと、HPをモデルにしたと書いてある。そのあとボブ・ノイスとインテルをモデルにした創業者は何人いたか。スティーブ・ジョブズも含め、ボブ・ノイスの家に夕食に行っていた。

ボブ・ノイスの写真を見ると「社会の柱」みたいに見える。きちんと着て、大人で。有名な「反逆の8人」——ショックレーを離れてフェアチャイルドを始め、フェアチャイルドを離れてインテルを始めたグループ——のリーダーだ。ボブ・ノイスは時代のスティーブ・ジョブズそのものだった。半袖の白いドレスシャツと細い黒ネクタイで。見た目はまったく違うのに、3時間話して完全にわかり合える、と容易に想像できる。

EN

going to say, if you read any books around this time, they're like, "There's no way in hell anybody's ever going to put their credit card on the internet." But By the way, the other thing you would never ever ever ever do is put your real name online. Because it would be immediate identity theft. Your life would be ruined. So, you would never ever do that. Um By the way, the other thing was right in the beginning, you had all the panic around, you know, kids, you know, this is going to destroy children, you know, this is a huge risk to children. So, you had all that panic. Um And then, there was immediate, you know, there was the beginning of the calls for censorship, you know, there's clearly all this stuff that you have to take down. You had a bunch of running stories talking about how the whole thing was fake anyway. They kept saying that like all the numbers were made up and like there actually wasn't anybody online. It was like a tiny little user base and we were all like inflating the numbers and committing fraud. And so, it was just this It was just this In retrospect, it's all like quaint and cute and sweet, but it was like the It was the precursor It was all all the all the all the moral panics around technology. Okay, but But you you you could see nascent versions of it back then. You pick up on something that cuz me and you have read a bunch of the same books where it's like humans' reaction to something new is just consistent throughout history. And so, I heard a podcast with you. I thought I was the only one that would tell the story in private about bicycle face. Bicycle face? Do you want to say what bicycle face is? Bicycle face. Bicycle face. Bicycle face. Yes. So, it basically turns out every new technology is greeted with a what they call a moral panic, right? So, in a moral panic basically is whatever this new technology is or this new form of media is, it's going to ruin everything. But it's going to ruin everything. It's going to ruin It's going to ruin society. It's going to ruin morality. And then, especially, it's going to ruin the children. Um And And And then And then back This is Bicycle is pre-feminism, so it also was It's also going to ruin the women. Very specifically, it's going to ruin the women. Which clearly cannot be cuz women clearly in 1880, you know, cannot be trusted to use a bicycle without getting into real trouble. I'll explain. I'll ex- I'll explain why. So, this is this persistent theme. And And basically, you you go all the way back and this is like, you know, this is like this famous thing where Plato uh and Socrates thought that like the pre- you know, basically, they they thought that written language was a big mistake. That all information transmission should be oral and they have this, you know, whole thing back in 500 BC. And then, it was just like every You just You You just have to like imagine. It's I I Everyone's like to hypothesize like, you know, the first guy who brought fire, you know, it's like down from the mountain.

センラ#37

スティーブにとっては規律を与える側だった。スティーブはワイルドで無謀で、ボブは成熟していた。ボブの妻が初期Appleで働いていた話もある。伝記で彼は、本当に成功したあと若い起業家に時間を使う理由を「自分が釣ってきた川を再放流する」と言った。自分より前の人たちから学んだ知識を、何十年かけて積み上げたものを次の世代に押し下げる必要がある、と。

EN

killed him. Yeah, they're like, "What the … is You know, they Right, exactly. Like, you know, this thing is awful. This thing could burn down the village. Like, this is awful. This is going to destroy everything." Um And so, it's just been this this consistent thing. And And you There's this great website called Pessimist's Archive where he There's These guys who go back and they find all these newspaper articles that are contemporary to these things. But it's It's everything. And you know, so when I was a kid, you know, it's like heavy metal music, Dungeons & Dragons, you know, it was like all this stuff was awful. I remember the moral panic around the Walkman, the very first cassette portable cassette player with headphones, cuz it was going to It was going to destroy society cuz everybody's going to just be listening to their own, you know, their own music. Uh I remember the moral panic around the calculator was going to destroy education cuz kids were not going to learn how to do math anymore. Um And then, you go back and it's like in the '50s, it was like comic books and it was, you know, rock and roll music. Obviously, it was going to ruin everything. In the '20s, by the way, jazz music was going to ruin everything. Playing cards were going to ruin everything. Uh what else? Novels. Uh paperback novels, you know, were taking taking kid kids Kids were going to sit around and just read novels all day instead of doing any any real work. So, it's just over and over and over again. It's It's this constant story. So, the bicycle one is the great one. So, the bicycle rolls out in like 1870, 1880. And so, the the US still at that point was like, you know, thinly populated, you know, from today. And but the West had been settled and so, you had all these little towns and villages scattered all over the place. And but you know, to get from one town to the next was like, you know, 5, 10, 15 mi. And so, people didn't generally walk walk that. Um And so, the bicycle comes out. All of a sudden, it's easy to go 5 mi to the next town. And then, you know, young people discover the bicycle and they discover that there are young people who they didn't grow up with who are in the next town over. And they're like, you know, they head off to do it. And And so, the specific

アンドリーセン#38

すごい。

EN

it. To do Well, to do it. Yes. To do everything. To do whatever it is that young people do. They're going to hit They're going to hit head to the Yeah. Cuz like Look, look, it's just the nature You have If you've known the same group of people since you were two, like you you're you're going to want Yeah.

センラ#39

ファームを始める話に戻りたい。当時またはそれ以前の人生で、何が起きていて「これをやらなきゃ」という観察に至った?

EN

It's over that hill.

アンドリーセン#40

精巧な理論はあるが、実務的現実は、パートナーのベンと僕が非常にアクティブなエンジェル投資家になっていたことだ。僕は90年代半ばからエンジェルをやっていたが、本格的に時間を入れるようになったのはだいたい2003、2004からだ。今では想像しにくいが、当時エンジェルは何千人もいなくて、8人くらいだった。ロン・コンウェイと一握り。ベンと僕が走り回っていた。伝統的VCが、VCが来る前に入るエンジェルとシード投資家にインターミディエートされた時点で、業界全体が変わった。僕らもその一部だった。

結果として、会社の形成時点で投資し、アマチュアのアーリーステージVCをやっていた。ボードには入らず、「あとで本物のVCから調達して、彼らがボードに入る」という感じだった。ところが何度も何度も、他の人が助けられない問題で会社に引き込まれた。その時点で会社を動かして20年やってきたから、少なくとも何をしているか少しはわかっていた。もう一つは、創業者とVCの間の紛争解決に何度も呼ばれたことだ。

当時もっと普通だったが、VCの基本的見方が「創業者は会社を動かさない。できるだけ速くプロマネージャーに置き換える」だと、創業者はそれを好まないし抵抗する。賛同していても、VCが連れてきたい人を好まないかもしれない。僕らは創業者もVCも知っていたから、理論上の信頼できる仲介者として裁定役になった。しばらくすると1日8時間それだけやっていた。10万ドルの小切手を書いて、1000万ドルの小切手を書いた人の紛争を裁定している。じゃあ1000万の小切手を書けばいい、となった。それがそれだった。

最高の創業者は、戦略的・概念的レベルと実務レベルを同時に動かせる、というのが僕の理論の一つだ。ベンチャービジネスの進化についての理論はいくらでも語れるが、その下には地上で実際に起きていた生きた経験があった。

当時のファームの大きな理論は、創業者という考えと結びついていたが、同時にベンチャー業界で起きていた構造的観察でもあった。ベンチャーと似たビジネス——プライベートエクイティ、ヘッジファンド、投資銀行、法律事務所、コンサル、広告代理店、会計事務所——関係とナレッジワークがプロダクトのものを研究した。いちばん公に話してきたのはハリウッドのタレントエージェンシーだ。

EN

over that hill. Yes, exactly. Right. Um I grew up in a small town. I I can identify with that. Um And so, um So So, and then specifically at that point, you know, young men obviously, but specifically young women started to do the bicycle. And so, And this is a big threat. And so, like if you're like a guy in a town and like all the, you know, attractive young women are like heading over the hill to the next town on this bicycle thing, like that's a big problem. Um And so, the press at the time created this thing called bicycle face. Uh And the idea of bicycle face was it was a It was a It was part of the moral lecture that was given to young women in the press at the time, uh which is basically young women should not use bicycles cuz if you go on a bicycle, you have to exert yourself. And if you exert yourself on the bicycle, you're going to end up making like a, you know, an an exertion, you know, exertion face. Um but the thing was if you did that too much, your face would freeze into bicycle face. They literally thought it would stay that way forever.

センラ#41

彼(マイケル・オービッツ)は数ヶ月前にこのスタジオにいた。

EN

stay that way permanently and then you would never find a husband. Right? And so So, yeah. So, that was that moral panic. Yeah. And so, these these things just like ripped through every I mean, it's just It's in Well, it's incredible. Music is always a great one cuz it's like, you know, for I don't know This is over now. But like in the in the in the '90s, 2000s, you know, there was all this moral panic around hip hop. Dude, Jimmy Iovine, who's your neighbor, Yeah. he was in here 2 weeks ago.

アンドリーセン#42

彼にこの理論の多くを借りている。彼の経験を通して語る。1975年頃にエージェンシーを始めたとき、構造的には2009年にA16Zを始めたときと非常に似ていた。業界の構成は、どれもあまりスケールしていないサービス会社/タレントエージェンシーの集まりで、それぞれがソロオペレーター——ローンウルフ——の部族だった。ハリウッドの概念は「エージェントがあなたの人」で、そのエージェントが知る人・持つ関係だけ。同じエージェンシーの他のエージェントは使えない。100人いるエージェンシーにいても集団の利益がない。

「自分が殺したものを食べる」プロフェッショナルサービスメンタリティで、みんな自分のブック・オブ・ビジネスを作れ、というやり方だった。結果として「人」はいるが「ファーム」はない。2009年のベンチャーも同じで、レガシーなVCファームはすべてローンウルフの部族だった。そして公には知られていなかったが、ファーム内部ではだいたい互いに好きではなかった。

EN

Yeah. And he had to deal with They called him a uh Yes. like a um chemical gas or mustard gas. Like they they compared him to literally like what he's doing is the same as genocide. Yes, that's Cuz he's funding hip hop music and white kids are starting to listen to hip hop music.

センラ#43

そういう話はしょっちゅう聞く。

EN

music in the late '80s, early '90s. In front of public congressional hearings on this. Like the media behind him. He was He was pushed out of a conglomerate. Like this wasn't a joke. Yes, that's right. That's right. And And it's actually funny cuz like we we I'm I'm not in the music business, but like I hip hop has become so normalized that today today would just never even occur to you. Like it just like feels like In fact, hip hop is kind of, you know, as a cultural phenomenon, he's he's even kind of fading today. But yeah, you know, that was super intense uh at the time. And then, rock and roll, that was like super intense in the '50s and '60s. And then, the amazing thing is

アンドリーセン#44

パートナーのジョーとメアリーがいて、君はジョーと働いていて、メアリーに必要なキーコネクションがある。ジョーに紹介を頼む。知らないのは、二人が残酷な戦いをしていて、利益プールのより大きなスライスを求めて互いを破壊しようとしていることだ。内部の争いと紛争で溶けているファームの例を何度も見た。もう一つは世代継承だ。2009年に支配的だったVCファームの多くは30〜40年続いていて、第3世代から第4世代のパートナーへ移行していた。創業者はダイナモだったが、後の世代はそうではなかった。

そこで「これは続かない」と言った。オービッツがここに来る。理論は「中間の死」、ポジティブに言うとバーベルだ。他のすべての業界で起きていること——業界がタフィーのように引き伸ばされる。バーベルの片側は、最初のお金を入れる超早期エンジェル/シード——軽やかに動き、相対的に小さな小切手を書き、極端に早く関わり、リスクを取る。もう片側はスケールプラットフォーム——大きな投げ込み、アクセス、大きなネットワーク、多くの資金へのアクセスを持つ大規模企業。

小売との比較もいつもする。かつてはシアーズやJCPenneyのようなデパートがあった。「かなり良い品揃えと、かなり良い価格」がブランド約束だった。今は死んでいる。代わりにグッチやApple Storeのようなブティックと、ウォルマートやAmazonのような超スケールeコマースがある。デパートに行く理由がない——ウォルマートやAmazonより品揃えが少なく、グッチやAppleの品質階層と特別な体験もない。

EN

Remember Elvis Presley? They would They wouldn't shoot him. They Cuz he would shake his hips. So, they're like, "No, no. He can't It's waist up on TV from now on."

センラ#45

その考えをA16Zを始めたとき頭に持っていた。

EN

That's right. But here's the one Here's the one I like. Jazz. They said all the same things about jazz in the 1920s and 1930s. It was jazz music corrupting the the the children. And And it was the exact same thing. It's cuz like kids are going to get together and they're going to dance to jazz and then who knows what happens. And then, it was like there was a jazz musician that's like smoking pot and that means all the kids are going to start smoking. It was just So, it's the same It's the same story over and over and over and over again. Um And And And I would also say, by the way, in fairness, like it's not that society doesn't change. Like you know, many of the technologies that we just described did did cause society to change. Like you know, things are different pre- and post-the-bicycle. They're different pre- and post-the-car. Um you know, they're different pre- and post, you know, the creation of modern modern culture, rock and roll, or whatever. But like this like the more Again, this idea of the moral panic. This idea of just like outright panic, end of the world, it's just like this repeated over and over and over again thing. And then And then what what what's happened is like this this is just This is the obvious way to sell newspapers. Right? Like This is like the meta story of the press, which is just like whatever's happening is like horrible and awful and it's going to kill everything, you know. You know, be sure Be sure to buy our newspaper tomorrow. Deal is the best company in the world at building infrastructure for global hiring. Deal will help your business hire, pay, and manage any worker anywhere in the world. Deal is one platform for payroll, HR, benefits, and device management across 150 countries. Deal gets you everything you need to run a high-performing global workforce on a single AI-native platform. From the first offer to final off-boarding, Deal handles the complexity so you can stay focused on your business. The best founders and operators in the world have one thing in common. They control as much of their business as possible. The founders of Deal do exactly this. When you use Deal, you aren't using a third-party payroll processor or a messy network of in-country providers. Deal built and owns their own rails. That means faster speed, better service, and total accountability. In fact, Marc Andreessen's firm, a16z, has been investing in Deal for more than half a decade. Deal has built AI teammates that take action. Most HR AI stops at chat. Deal puts AI inside the workflows themselves so it can run real work across hiring, payroll, mobility, IT support, and reporting. Grounded in compliance-vetted knowledge, Deal AI takes action to help teams move faster without adding headcount. Deal is trusted by over 40,000 businesses. Learn how they can help your business today by going to deal.com. That is d e e l.com. I want to go back to to Jim Clark real quick. Is there anything that you learned cuz Jim Clark was what, like two decades, probably 20 years older than you?

アンドリーセン#46

100%。当時のVCには概念的飛躍だったが、プライベートエクイティでもヘッジファンドでも投資銀行でも同じことが起きていた。

EN

Yes, about that, probably. So, like is there anything that you learned working What a … education you had to be able to work with that guy when you were early 20s? Yep, that's right. So, is there anything that you learned by working with him back then that you still use today? I mean, yeah, a lot. You know, as he said, it was very formative for me. So, so a lot of it. But yeah, I mean, you mentioned that the the sort of quote earlier about the world is a malleable place. Like Jim was like the ultra version of that. Um and so, yeah, he would just like Yeah, when he had an idea and he was right. Like his ideas were correct almost all the time. And he he would just like pound the world into adopt into into believing them. Like you should, you know, the idea of being like a complete force of nature. One thing that was malleable was himself. He has this great quote in that book where he calls himself a self-described loser at 38 years old. I mean, the guy had like two PhDs. He was a professor. But he just like I think he'd been in his second or third divorce and he just snapped one day and he's just like, "I had I woke up one day with the undeniable urge to achieve something." And that's when he goes from academic to founder. And just rips off company after company for like a few decades. I was like, "Oh, he's He realized that he is malleable, too. He just reinvented himself over and over and over again. And of course he does that not just by like starting a company, but like inventing interactive computer graphics. Or like completely changing the field.

センラ#47

どうやって知った? 読んで?

EN

Yeah. You know, in indirectly like completely changing Hollywood. But is there anything about recruiting or managing or any other way that he ran his company?

アンドリーセン#48

投資銀行が古典例だ。1880〜1920年の米国の初期投資銀行は、1970〜80年代の米国のブティックVCファームみたいだった。20人くらい。もっとマーチャントバンカーに近い。大好きな歴史的人物の一人がJ.P.モルガンで、彼の投資銀行は重要だが小さなオペレーション——一つのオフィスに収まり、プリンシパル20人と事務スタッフくらい。大きくなかった。

隠れた秘密は、父がジュニアス・モルガンだったことだ。

EN

No, so let my two mentors at that time actually they were they were in some ways polar opposite they always got along with they're kind of polar opposites. They were both Jims. So Jim Clark and Jim Barksdale. So the Jim Clark side of my personality is like the like will to power like I'm just going to bludgeon the world into doing what I want. Um you know, and then just and then the idea of just like you know, try to be a fountain of creativity like just like there are many there are many new ideas out there and like you you just you need to you need to go find them. Um uh and then you know, I would say also I got to put this like a sense of professional dissatisfaction. Like okay, like what whatever it look it is the other part of the story like a lot of founders would have had a success like selling selling graphics and that would have been it and they would have spent the next whatever. Whether they were totally happy with how it turned out or not like they would have spent 30 years just coasting on that, right? And having a great time and taking credit for it and the whole thing. Um but Jim you know, was always uh you know, at least in in that part of his life, you know, dissatisfied in the productive positive sense of like okay, no there's something better there's something bigger. Um you know, there's something new that we should do. So you know, there's that side of it and then Jim Barksdale was the other um uh was the other who I just literally was with yesterday uh in in uh in in Jackson, Mississippi. Um uh Jim Barksdale is the other side which was Jim Barksdale is like the the manager of managers. So Clark is like the ultimate example of that bourgeois capitalist thing I mentioned. So the the Henry Ford Elon Musk type and then Jim Barksdale is like the ultimate example of like the super the super manager. And Jim had run you know, big parts of IBM and AT&T and Federal Express um and you know, came came in to run you know, came in to run Netscape and what was interesting was like that that's kind of where I got a lot of this from and a lot of my skills from is I I got trained by both of those guys and then kind of both of those guys at the same time and and then was able to like very clearly observe what is just the difference between those mentalities but then the other is of course how how those concepts converge. Right? Because because just the fountain of creativity it it it you you can't you can't build you can't build anything big just with that. Um just the management you don't you you don't do you do it in your thing.

センラ#49

話しているとき「父の方が手強い個人だ」と思っていた。ほとんどいつも有名な公的人物の父の方が面白い物語だ。

EN

Who's a great example of that from history? So like would it be like Nikola Tesla? Fountain of creativity. Oh, that's right. Yeah. He needed somebody he like a George Westinghouse to commercialize his ideas.

アンドリーセン#50

そのとおりだ。ジュニアス・モルガン銀行はロンドン、J.P.モルガン銀行はニューヨークで、モルガン家は古い低成長のヨーロッパ経済から新しい高成長の米国経済へ金を流していた。小さなブティック家族オペレーションだった。その時代のもう一つのすごい点は、宗教で二分されていたことだ。プロテスタントの投資銀行とユダヤの投資銀行で、混ざらなかった。まったく違う世界。結果としてJ.P.モルガンのようなプロテスタント銀行は鉄道のような「本物のビジネス」を資金供給でき、映画会社やデパートのような評判の悪いものはほとんどユダヤの投資銀行が——そしてほとんどユダヤの創業者と一緒に——やった。今日その大きな生き残りは、J.P.モルガン・チェースと、ユダヤ側のゴールドマン・サックスだ。

100年前、J.P.モルガンもゴールドマンも今でいうミッドマーケット/バルジブラケット的な位置にいた。ソロオペレーターではない中間。JFKの父ジョセフ・P・ケネディは1920年代に看板を出して「Joseph P. Kennedy, banker」——当時のエンジェル投資家みたいにディールをしていた。大きな商業銀行は、投機的で狂った起業家への融資に興味がなかった。モルガン、ゴールドマン、クーン・ローブ、ドレクセル、モルガン・スタンレーなどが中間だった。100年後、スケールした側が生き残り、スケールしなかった側は忘れられた。

古いモデルで生き残った一社がアレン・アンド・カンパニーだ。1920年代創業で、ブティック投資銀行として意図的にブティックのままで100年続いた。今日のバンキングのバーベルは、片側がアレン、もう片側がJ.P.モルガンとゴールドマン、という見方もできる。

---

EN

say Tesla versus Edison. Uh yeah, so Tesla versus Edison. Tesla versus Edison. So I'm an Edison I'm an Edison guy. But then this is the thing. So Elon was a Tesla guy uh is a Tesla guy obviously. But but Elon of course himself has now become like a the really outstanding I mean obviously become an outstanding manager like in his own you know, in his own way. In fact to the point where I think he's actually inventing an entirely new school of management. Which we could talk about. But like Let's go there next. Yeah, he's maybe the greatest manager of our era despite the fact that nobody thinks of him that way. But um but yeah so I actually think Elon is more like Edison than he is like Tesla. Um and then there was a big war and it was kind of this thing cuz it's it's every everything kind of turns into these little morality morality plays. And so kind of the this the the basic story of Tesla and Edison was Tesla had all these ideas but couldn't couldn't couldn't commercialize them. Couldn't turn them into companies ultimately you know, couldn't couldn't figure out how to make money on them. Couldn't build like big big big companies uh you know, kind of based on them. And then Edison you know, it basically at least the way the legend goes is he was more of this grinder. He was less incandescently brilliant and he was more of a grinder. He's just like we're going to just going to try a thousand things. He was like when they invented the filament for the light bulb they just tried like a thousand different combinations of things to get to the filament to you know, sort of this brute force approach. But then he built General Electric. Like he built the like national electric grid. You know, he built these giant companies. Um and then he you know, he funded by funded funded by funded by JP Morgan.

センラ#51

ファームを創業する前/している最中に、これらを読んでいた?

EN

go. As a as a as a as a venture capitalist in his spare time. Yes, exactly. 100%. Um And so uh and then you know, also invented the movie projector and then and then literally spent years trying to enforce his patents, right? And phonograph. And the and the phonograph and the phonograph

アンドリーセン#52

両方。ベンと僕は約1年半ファームを計画した。彼は「産業奴隷」——会社をHPに売ったあとヒューレット・パッカードで大きな部分を動かしていた。フルタイムの新しいことを始められるまで自由になれなかった。だから1年半、勉強して準備する時間があった。2002〜2003からエンジェルを多くやって、会社を始める6〜7年後までモデルの弱点を観察し続けた。

EN

you tell a story and I knew because I read the book, too. Yeah. We should tell people what he thought the phonograph was going to be used for. So this this is a a bit of a digression but it gets the personality stuff. So one of the things that people look for is it's like oh, what are the consequences of a new technology going to be? Oh, let's go ask the people who invent them because obviously they know. And so this is what happens when like these when the AI guys get you know, AI uh the pioneers of AI get interviewed in the press. It's like oh, tell us the future of AI. And it's like you get the like the I'll pick on Geoffrey Hinton who's like an actual self-declared socialist. Like he's an actual so like he's an actual capital S socialist and people ask him what's the future of AI. And of course he says it's going to be rapid unemployment and we need to give you UBI to everybody. It's like what a coincidence the answer from the socialist is communism. Like like what an amazing coincidence. But people think cuz he's one of the inventors of AI that he must be the guy who knows. And so the story I always tell is the Edison story. Thomas Edison was like a he was like a very proper WASP. He was like a WASP you know, a WASPy you know, personality type of that era. Extremely proper gentleman always like impeccably dressed very you know, kind of very ethical uh you know, upstanding you know, kind of citizen of of that time. Um and um and very religious very religiously devout. And so for him it's just obvious that the application of the record player was that everybody would buy a record player and everybody would buy a cat a library of discs that would be the great sermons religious sermons of all the great preachers of the time. And then you get home at night after a long day of work and you turn on the record player and you would listen to a sermon you know, with your with your with your wife and kids you know, gathered around you. And of course the record player drops and immediately of course like it's just it's music. It's just like obviously music. And it's like ragtime and you swam in his jazz and and you know, Edison is just like completely horrified. He didn't know that if you put the phonograph in the window and you play good music then you have all these girls on bicycles coming over there. With bicycle fists. Exactly. Exactly. And so this is what I was telling this is always my thing. It's like if Edison didn't know what the phonograph was going to be used for the idea that you know, I don't know whatever Joe Joe AI entrepreneur is going to be able to forecast the economic implica no. No. Like that's not going to happen. And in fact the people who invent the technology are often like the least qualified people to understand the long-term implications because they're just they're too they're too buried in the specifics of the here and now. And then and then and then all these other questions you know, these are all big cultural social economic questions. You know, and by the way I don't know if there's anybody that can predict big cultural or economic and social trends but it's it's certainly not somebody who's been in the lab for 20 years including myself. So how this started you think you greatly benefited from the two Jims essentially like being polar opposites.

センラ#53

CAAの考え方を取り入れた——オービッツが言うファランクス。「CAAに一人のエージェントがいるなら、僕ら全員がいる」と深くロールする。本では、プレミアにエージェントが来ると思ったら20人のエージェントが来て、同じ仕立てのスーツで、競争相手を威圧しようとしていた、と。

EN

Basically. And showing you

アンドリーセン#54

アルマーニのスーツ、ビバリーヒルズのシャツメーカーSulkaの白いシャツ。地元のジャガーディーラーとバルク購入契約があり、伝説ではナンバープレートがCA1、CA2、CA3……。プレミアに行くと20台のジャグが並び、同じスーツの20人が出てくる。ハリウッド版だが、古いスクールのエージェントへの心理的インパクトを想像してほしい。マイケルは非常に親しい友人だ。彼が長年論争的になった理由は、競争をあまりに激しく粉砕したからだ。応答の余地がなかった。古いエージェンシーで働く一人の男と、20人がスーツで現れる——力だ。クライアントに聞くと「人で働きたいか、ファームで働きたいか。明らかだ」と言う。

EN

But also working very closely together. Do they get along? I don't know if I've told this story publicly. So I should tell the story. So um They got along great became very good friends. They but they both did great and they're both you know, very responsible for certainly everything that I that I've done. But you know, it's it's a it's an it's different disciplines different world views. You know, there's so there's an oil and a water kind of aspect to that and so so you know, Clark ran Clark ran the company for the first like nine months which at the time felt like you know, just like internet time it felt like much longer but it was it was like this highly compressed nine month period. And and you know, and then it was like we were like doing it we were all these new things we were doing all these new things. Like the the company was just doing like a a hundred new things. It was amazing. But like we were nothing was being systematized, right? It was not it was not going to by default it was not going to turn into like a a large a large company without the management component. And so Barksdale comes in and he basically is like well, the this inventiveness is great but we need to like actually start to have systems and like schedules and processes and and actually like run this thing run this thing like a business. And and and you know, as founders do Clark you know, he originally you know, found that a little bit frustrating cuz it's like you know, whatever is the latest idea is not the thing that we're just going to turn the entire company you know, to you know, to pursue. And this is when Clark was still coming to Jim's Barksdale staff meetings. And so Clark got up got up got got um uh uh he had a negative reaction to Barksdale saying no, we're not going to do this new thing. We're going to we're going to keep doing the thing that's already working. You know, it's one of those moments and Barksdale is like you know, can I talk to you outside? And so you know, they went out back and and um and uh I heard the story from both of them later and you know, Clark is like you know, look this is the whole reason we're here is cuz we do these new things. Um you know, if we don't do these new things we're going to destroy the company. And and Barksdale looks right at him and says, Jim I hear you. This is as serious as dick cancer. What? It was in the deep Mississippi drawl, right? And Clark stares him right in the face and Barksdale laughing. And and they got along great ever since. Like like like they just love they they loved each other ever since. Barksdale basically saying look we we can't we we we we're not going to make these decisions in a state of kind of superheated passion. Like we're not going to do that. We need to have the full version of this conversation but we're we're going to have it in kind of this this this longer and and maybe more dispassionate way. Uh but it was to it was to puncture the stress of the moment. And so that that I I will say I have used that one a few times. Yes. But I could see Clark And Clark thought it was hysterical. Like nobody had ever talked to him that way before. So But I could see Clark like oh no, here we go. This is a replay of what happened at Silicon Graphics. Oh.

センラ#55

朝のスケジュールの話はした? ファームの。

EN

probably he was probably afraid of that to a certain extent. Um but um yeah. Yeah. Um but and then and then I would say yeah. I don't want to say anything negative about the history I got but um yeah, I mean Clark like I said Clark was just like Barksdale was just like was the manager of managers. He was like so advanced on this. That story notwithstanding Barksdale never took the position of like no, it's time for the new new ideas to stop. Like but it was always like okay, we need to thread the new ideas into a business which which which is kind of the hybrid of the two. So I just had this thought while I was sitting here listening to you speak. Is there something about your partnership with Ben where like you like he's more Barksdale you're more Clark?

アンドリーセン#56

これもハリウッド固有だが良い例だ。彼がCAAを始めたとき、エージェンシービジネスは約90年——ボードビルのブッキングやミュージックホールから始まって何十年もあった。最善のやり方を考える時間が何十年もあり、慣行に落ち着いていた。その一つが、毎朝9時にスタッフミーティングをして情報を共有することだった。スタジオヘッドが犯罪スリラーの脚本を欲しがっている、など。9時から10時までミーティング、10時からクライアントに電話して「この素晴らしい役のキャスティングがある」と。

マイケルは「じゃあスタッフミーティングは7時。8時に終わる。8時から9時に全クライアントに電話する。ついでに彼らのクライアントにも電話する」とした。20年付き合ってきたエージェントが11時にポール・ニューマンに電話して「素晴らしい役がある」と言っても、「CAAの連中が3時間前に電話してきたよ」「彼らは君を代理してない」「いいよね?」——それを千回繰り返せば、クライアントには何をすべきか完全に明らかだ。

教訓はまたインカンベンシーと現状だ。どんなビジネスでも埋め込まれた前提が積もる。90年後、創業者はもういなくて、競争エージェンシーを動かしているのはマネージャーであって創業者ではない。マネージャーが強制されない限り絶対にやらないのは、根本前提を再考することだ。大きなものを動かすポイントはそれをやらなくていいことで、ゼロから再発明なんて悪夢に聞こえる。結果として誰も疑問に思わない暗黙の前提だらけになる。第一原理に戻って「どうやってその結論に至った?」と入れる。僕らの創業者が毎日やっていることで、業界ごとに1970年や1930年や1880年には意味があった前提が、もう意味をなさない。

EN

Yeah. Although we we do mix it up a little bit more um because he does have he does have his own edge um but um yeah, there there is something in that. Yeah. So like for example like our friend he runs the firm um and then I yeah, I will I tend to come up with new I you know, he comes up with lots of new ideas but I do tend to come up with new ideas. And then we we do we do have this kind of discussion you know, frequently. So if I was to follow you around without you knowing with a camera, what would your day look like then? Are you just like a fountain of ideas or you're like this uncontrolled energy like a Jim Clark back in the day?

センラ#57

それが好きだ。何をするかより、どうやるかだ。タレントエージェンシーを動かしているわけじゃないのに、VCに適用できる原則がたくさんある。君のブログアーカイブが大好きで何度も読んだ。若い人へのアドバイスで「その業界の創業者がまだ働いている産業で働け」とある。オービッツの本を読むと、彼のアプローチは「凡庸は常に見えない。情熱が現れて暴露するまで」に要約できる。

EN

But I've got both. This is the thing that because they both trained me I've got both parts of it. So I so So you're not as un like controllable or unmanageable as Yeah, like I I think I believe Ben would tell you yeah, I mean look Ben's been working with me now for 30 years and so I think if this is a real issue I think you know, that that partnership would not have lasted. But I think he would say that I have a pretty strong internal edit function. I want to see unedited.

アンドリーセン#58

面白い。そうだ。彼は「ここでもっとうまくできることが山ほどある」とやり、思い出ではメンターだったウィリアム・モリスのCEOにもアイデアを持っていった。

EN

Well, unedited is really fun. Um unedited is very enjoyable. Um it it it it is very disruptive. Um and so yeah, it has to be yeah, it has to be calibrated.

センラ#59

君とベンは、創業者だったときに欲しかったものを設計していた?

EN

When do you show the unedited side? I I don't tend to do it in the spur of the moment. Yeah, this is the thing and I you know, Elon Schwartz is incredibly well, just incredibly well as does Zuckerberg. Um it's like it is this thing and again this goes back to like the Edison Tesla thing. It when you're responsible for an organization, when when you're responsible for a team of people that's more than five or 10. If you're going to have an organization like 100 or 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000 people, like it you can't change the plan every day. Like you just can't. You'll just you'll destroy every you'll burn everybody out, you'll destroy everybody. There'll just be mass confusion and people will quit. It's just going to be like you can't do that. There has to be some calibrated middle ground. There are a handful of examples of like great business successes for us like one or two or three people. Right. It's not I mean it's like Bitcoin and Minecraft and WhatsApp and Instagram and and then I start running out of examples. But like AI there will probably be more. There will probably be more like single person companies, you know, from from here on out. Or or by the way, artists, you know, artists and novelists. Let me say this is a different thing like a novelist and a movie maker. A novelist, let's say you can do whatever the … you want. You're a novelist. But like if you're a director of a movie, you can't like change the entire plot like on Tuesday while you're shooting the movie or you go like there's 300 people who are relying on you to like complete a movie. Like so So anyway, so point being it's like intact. If you're if you're going to have an organization by the way in anything in any field of activity. If you're going to have an organization, you do need to have some calibration titration process. Like change does need to happen but it needs to happen in a measured way. Um and so and so you you can't just like blow it up every day. Um and so yeah, so so either what you need in that case to get kind of the holy grail of the large scale organization that's still innovating, either you need two people involved who are able to balance each other. And by the way, you could say this is like Steve Jobs and Tim Cook, you know, would be a canonical example. Or by the way, early on Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg. Or early on Bill Gates and you know, Steve Ballmer. So you can have that kind of configuration or every once in a while you can get that in a single person. Right, which is very rare but like Jensen Huang would be a single person example of that. Uh so you know, every now and then you get that. And so I would say Ben and I have like a version of the yin and yang kind of aspect to it. But like I said, he's very creative on his own and I have this because I have the Berkshire training, I have this additional level of sort of most of the time. You know, sort of self self-governance. Like I kind of I get it. Like I'm not So my big thing is just like look, if I'm going to walk in and I'm going to like throw a fit and I'm going to like we have to change everything tomorrow and Ben's going to be like … you. Like this … sucks. I'm like that leads nowhere good, right? So that that can't that can't be the thing. And so I do Yeah. I I I do do a lot of self-editing. You just said something. I think you said you believe Elon is inventing a new way to manage. I think he may have figured out the best way to reconcile the two. The fountain of ideas with the systematic builder. I think he might have figured out a a fundamental I don't know if it's a new way to do it but I think he might have cracked the code on like how to do that for the next 100 years or something. So break down what you've observed with the way that Elon's managing. Yeah, should I just start by saying look, Elon's method has been described by people, you know, before and I and I should say like I I work with him but from the outside. So I've not worked in one of his companies. So I'm you know, have one layer of interaction but I you know, I work with him quite a bit now and I study him in a very very carefully. Um it's this extreme focus on substance. It's this extreme focus on getting to the truth. So one of the things you notice in any organization of multiple layers is that basically they're compounding lies. And and and I got this lesson early because I worked for IBM at the at the point of their kind of maximum size and importance in the world. Can you explain? I don't think people understand Yeah. just how big and powerful and almost monopolistic IBM was. Yeah. So I worked for IBM at the very height of their power right before they fell. Um it was my first job and um uh when I was in college and they were in the mid '80s they were 80% of the market capitalization of the entire tech industry. Right. There's nothing even close to even close. Right. So this is like Google times 10 or something. It's Apple times 10. It's just like it's a level of scale and importance that just nobody had. And by the way, the the TV show actually that does a great job of this is Halt and Catch Fire in the first season has this thing this point where these guys are basically inventing the PC effectively. And it's a point where IBM shows up and it gives you a sense of like it's like the CIA story you told earlier. It's like the the phalanx. It's like 20 people on like police suits are just here to like completely crush you. Like it was just this overpowering you know, kind of thing. And and you know, they invented like all kinds of stuff and the industry wouldn't exist today without them and they were an incredible company for a very long time. And the and the whole thing and by the way, run by their founder for 30 years, run by the founder's son for 30 30 years. Um you know, this incredible company but then you know, they're still you know, they're they're they're not they're not that anymore but they're still a big and important company today, you know, whatever 1940 to 80 years later. It's like how many companies survive in tech, you know, 80 years? My favorite IBM story, Thomas Watson Senior had been convicted of anti-trust crimes before he started IBM. This is the cash register? The cash register. AND SO HE HAD PREVIOUSLY run a company called NCR, National Cash Register. And he had been convicted by the federal government of monopolizing the cash register business before he even started IBM. And then and then and then IBM he he monopolized the mainframe business and then they convicted him again. He's he's he's he's a double dipper. He got very used to being being in anti-trust court. So he was incredible. By the way, there's Kevin Maney old school tech reporter wrote a book biography of Thomas Watson Senior which you feel The machine and the man or the man and the machine, right?

アンドリーセン#60

そのとおり。チートコードかもしれないが、顧客だったならすべてがずっと明白になる。

EN

Something like that. It's one of I'm not sure if it's that one but it's one of those. I think it might be that one. Yeah. And he actually went back and this is like you know, this is like we're talking about like 1940s, 1950s, 1960s. And he went back and he got them at that time they they had a they had a secretary transcribing in real time all of the executive staff meetings every every Monday morning. And he went back and he actually got the archives of the transcripts of the executive staff meetings and it's just literally Thomas Watson just like cursing everybody out and just like just like a complete tyrannical psychopath just like screaming at people. And it's all it's all in the records. And so it's like you know, it's how much of this stuff ever changes, you know, it's like you know, whatever I don't know, whatever Elon gets accused of or whatever Steve Jobs is like oh no, that guy was Yeah. whatever it is, it's a pale version of what that guy was doing. Um But anyway, point being is like IBM. So by the time I got involved in IBM it was like 60 years later, you know, yeah, 60 50 years later after that. And so they were kind of peaking in their power. But what happened was I I remember this cuz I was there in China when I was trying to figure out whether I should I should work should work there after college and they had a their internet was a mainframe mainframe app and you one of the functions was a it was a was was the org chart and I got I calculated there were 12 layers of management between me and the CEO. Which meant the following. It meant it meant that my bosses bosses bosses bosses boss had a boss boss boss before it got to the CEO. And then really what happened, the story of the thing, really what happened was and I saw that. I saw this happen. I saw this happen up close. What I saw this happen was each layer of management was lying to the one above it, right? Cuz each layer wants to wants to look good and wants to you know, whatever, put a little spin on the ball. And like if if one layer lies to the next layer above it, it's you know, maybe that's that's okay. But when that happens two or three times, the lies compound. If that happens six times, the lies really compound. If that happens 12 times, the CEO has no idea what's happening. Like absolutely no clue what's going on in the company. Which was the state of play that that IBM had. They actually had a term it was actually a term they had a whole vocabulary. I mean this company was like a nation state at the time. Um And you could like live your whole life like in Austin, Texas and never meet anybody who didn't work for IBM. Like it was just like this this incredibly this incredible thing. They had this concept called the big gray cloud and it was literally the cloud of men in gray business suits who followed the CEO around and prevented him from ever talking to anybody who was ever actually doing the work. And so when he would come to visit it was like a state visit. It was like a visit from the king and it was like the the king and the and the traveling court. Yeah. And so they it was completely impervious to what they get information through. And so but I I tell that story cuz that's the polar opposite of the Elon approach, right? So so so and by the way, being a CEO of IBM in 1989 was a great way to live, right? Cuz it's just like wow, everybody's bringing me good news all the time. Like Like I wake up in the morning and like everything is great. And I'm famous and I am like rich and I am successful and like I've got a chauffeur and I've got a jet and I've got these 80 guys in gray suits who are like taking care of everything for me and I don't have to ever talk to engineers and like this is great. You know, until you know, it's like the turkey on Thanksgiving, you know, until things change and there's a problem and then you have no idea what to do about it. Which which is what happened to them. The Elon approach is the polar opposite of that. And the polar opposite of the approach is literally like I'm only going to talk to engineers. Right? And so when there is an issue, I am going to go straight to the source of truth and the source of truth is the engineer who actually knows what's going on. And so what he literally I've seen him do this. What he literally does is he he goes to whatever the when when there's an issue in his companies, he goes to whatever is the engineer who's working on that problem and he sits down with the engineer and they solve that problem. And like and I can just tell you like the number of CEOs in tech even the great ones who do that, like I mean almost nobody ever does that. Why does nobody ever do that? Well, first of all, it's just like a giant pain in the ass because like your life consists of like having actually solve all these problems. Like the whole point of being like big and powerful and successful is you you pay people to do that and now you're doing it. And you're in there at like 2:00 in the morning doing it, This sucks, right? And so like most people won't do it. Um and then the other is you have to means the CEO of the company has to have the skill set to be able to do that. So the CEO has to not just be a great CEO, they also have to be like a great technical technologist. Not just that they have memories of having been a programmer or a clock binder or whatever or chip designer or they can actually sit down with the chip designer right on Thursday night at 2:00 a.m. in Austin and they can actually figure out like what's wrong with the chip. And you know, Elon has that ability and he's like encyclopedic on like every area of technology and is is able to go hands-on with rocket designers and AI designers and everything in between. And almost no CEO has that. And so but that's literally what he does. And then and then the way that he thinks the way that he thinks about it, I think is basically, you know, he runs whatever six six companies or something. It's like basically at any given week in any given week, he thinks about everything as a production basic production line, you know, production process. It's like he's actually like an old school industrialist. So everything's like a production process. And and then any given week there's In any production process there's always a bottleneck. So there's always there's always the thing that is slowing down the process the most. And and that's always one thing. So what he does for each of his companies is he identifies what he he charts he literally maps out the production process and he literally has these like monitors where he like has the whole thing laid out. Um and then he he basically says okay, this is the issue that's holding up production this week and then he goes and works and And the thing that he goes to work with the engineer on is he goes to fix that bottleneck. And he does it every week for every company, right? And so think about what that This is why Tesla is smoking the is is is like has been so much dramatically outperforming the rest of the auto industry, is because Tesla he's he's fixing the critical production bottleneck at Tesla 52 times a year. Himself. Yeah. I can tell you what the CEO of the legacy auto makers are doing. Like they're not doing that. That is not what's happening, right? And so and in contrast like a normal company it might take 6 months to solve these problems. And he wants like fixing it like right now, tomorrow. Like let's go fix it right now. Um and so he just like runs this he runs this loop over and over again. Um he he's just he's absolutely indefatigable. Um I offered he famously for a while he had sold all of his houses um and he was literally couch surfing. Um you know, he was one of the most successful people on the planet.

センラ#61

ウォーレン・バフェットの株主への手紙に「弱い競争相手と対戦する相手を選ぶのは本当に重要だ」という一文がある。その時点のVC史で、弱い/弱めの競争と対戦すると感じていた?

EN

Yeah. Um and so I have a vacation house I offered him. I said, "If you want to take a week and use the vacation house, whatever, take the kids, feel free." And he sent back 5 minutes later it's like, you know, whatever, 11:00 at night. The four four four four word response, "I don't take vacations." Right. Like it's so good. Which again is like there's no CEO like this. Yeah. Uh the whole point of being a CEO is you get to you get to go jet around. And so so anyway, so he's doing that and then and then you know he he and then he he he turns this into a routine. And so you know he when he does like he'll he'll he does like a day a week at each of his companies and he'll basically do like all day he'll do like a 12 14 hour stretch where he'll do design reviews um uh with with but but but but the way that he does it he does it with 5 minutes per engineer. Right? And so he does five five 60 divided by five um um It's been a way too long in this podcast. How much is that? 12? 12. He can do 12 design reviews an hour. Yeah. Uh and then he does it 10 hours a day. So so so Elon will do 120 design reviews in the course of a in the course of a day. Are these one-on-one? I have not actually sat in these. I I suspect there are other people around.

アンドリーセン#62

正確にはそうではない。弱いとは見ていなかった。現状のアイデアセットで走っていると見ていた。はっきり言うと、当時おそらく最高の2つのVCファームから資金を調達しなければならなかった。90年代のクライナー・パーキンスでジョン・ドーアと5年密に働き、ベンチマークが丘の王だった頃アンディ・ラックレフから調達した。歴史上その分野のトップ5くらいの人と長く働いてきた。彼らは当時も今も、存在したモデルを実行するのにBrilliantだ。ジョンもアンディもそうだ。

「この人たちは柔らかい」「賢くない」という競争ではなかった。特定のプレイブックに対して本当に上手い。だからこそ、やるなら違うプレイブックでやらなきゃいけなかった。スケールVCなんてものはなかった。ファームはみんな限界にぶつかった。対等なパートナーシップや階層的パートナーシップのアイデアは、内部の不和が多すぎて調整が難しく、当時固定サイズだと思われていたパイのスライスを争って、ある時点で壊れる。構造的にスケールに行く道がなかった。

EN

Okay. Um including people you know work work for him and you know probably probably some some of the leaders of the companies are involved in different ways. Um but um it it literally is the thing I noticed it's literally a rotating cap it's it's the point engineer on each of the important things coming in and presenting for 5 minutes. And and then the question is like how's if it's going great that's great. If it's not going what's the problem? And then how does that problem rank? Right. It is is that the is that the production bottleneck? Um and if it is the production bottleneck then that's the thing that he then fixes. And then that's when he's there from whatever 8:00 till 2:00 a.m. working with that engineer to fix that problem. You know, one way to think about this is the the the velocity like in military affairs it's called maneuver warfare, right? So it's just that that that the the speed at which he operates is just the the cycle time is just so much faster than anybody running in a in a traditional method. It's just it's hard to even compare the difference. It's like 4 hours versus 6 months. Like it's it's just this incredible gap. And then and then the other part of it is so somebody I know once worked worked worked for SpaceX and and and they asked what it was like and he said it's it's like being dropped into a into a zone of shocking uh competence. Um like like everybody is like ultra competent. And the reason everybody's ultra competent is because number one if if they're not Elon sniffs it out and fires them. But he knows cuz he's he's talking to the people actually doing the work. So he and he you know at this point in his you know having done this for whatever 25 years he he he can he can sniff this out pretty quickly now. And then the other is the best engineers in the world want to work for him cuz he's he's the one CEO like this who's able to work with them as a peer on whatever the technology is. And as an engineer you're just like this is this like what would be better as an engineer than being able to design a rocket engine with Elon Musk as your engineering partner? Right? And so he just has this like incredible positive selection where like the smartest people in the world want to work for him and then anybody who can't cut it gets fired. The world sees this as like raw aggression, but it's beyond that, right? It's a very systematic way of optimizing these companies to be able to take on these like profound challenges and then being able to actually solve all the problems and do these things and at a speed that is just like completely unmatched. The challenge of all of this is like okay, that all works great if you've got Elon. Right? And so so one of my con one of my concepts is um I I think we need a metric um uh for um founders in Silicon Valley called the milli Elon. Right? And so are you how many milli Elons are you, right? Are you 10 milli Elons? That would be great. Are you 100 milli Elons? You know, that's 10% of an Elon. Well, that'd be fantastic. You know, you know, 500 milli Elons like I'm going to give you all the money. Right? Most people are like one milli Elon or 0.1 milli Elon. The question that falls out of this, which is the question that you know bedevils us, is like okay, like how you know, you can't can't clone him. You can't bottle the essence. So what out of that can be transplanted to like normal human beings? And how much of it is predictable or knowable when he's much younger? Because like the the famous example of this in um is Michael Moritz passing. Made all his money in PayPal with Elon. Obviously there was contention there he got kicked out and everything else. But then Elon pitched him Tesla and he passed cuz he's like there's no way that you're ever going to surpass Toyota. And then Moritz to his credit was just like I drastically underestimated the guy's determination and pain tolerance I think is the term he used.

センラ#63

ハリウッドのエージェントビジネスとマーチャントバンク/投資銀行以外から、どこからアイデアを取った?

EN

Well, I wasn't there for that so I don't know about that. What I I will say the idea of the idea of being having been a software entrepreneur building a car company. Okay, building a When Tesla started building there had been no new successful car companies in the United States for like 100 years. For like 100 years. There was like 2,000 of them at 1905 founded from like 1900 to 1910 and three that survived.

アンドリーセン#64

プライベートエクイティで起きているのは明白だった。KKRのようなファームが社内にオペレーショナル能力を多く作り、社内に実質的な投資銀行すら作っていた時期だ。僕らがやったことはないが理想リストにいつもあったのは社内バンクを持つことだ。KKRはキャプティブバンクを実際に建てた。ミッドティアのPEファームが崩壊し、片側は小さなディールをする超軽量ソロ、もう片側はKKRのようなスケールプラットフォーム、という状況が見えていた。

ヘッジファンドでも起きた。広告では『マッドメン』が60〜70年代の構造物語を語っている。スターリング・クーパーは古典的ミッドマーケット広告代理店で、マッキャンに売られる。巨大マシンで働くプロとコンが全部描かれる。ドン・ドレイパーは創造的決定を全部していたのに会議室で人と議論するだけになり、立ち上がって出ていく。それからスターリング・クーパー・ドレイパー・プライスをスタートアップとして始め、小さすぎてクライアントが取れずサブスケールで地獄を味わい、結局またスケール側に売られる。広告代理店では40〜70年代にテレビが触媒になってそれが起きた。

もう一つは外部環境の変化だ。内部の力学だけでなく外が変わる。マイケルが言うだろうが、MCAが可能になった一部は、ハリウッドが映画だけだったところから、70〜80年代に映画・TV・広告・音楽・スポーツ・政治・文化へとずっと大きくなったことだ。

競争相手に公平に言うと、1950〜2010年頃のシリコンバレーは主にツールビジネスだった。ヒューレット・パッカードから始めて、バックアップし建てた会社はツールを作り、売って、買い手が何をするか決める。僕らがファームを始めた頃が、バレーがツールから既存産業に直接挑む会社へ移行するピボット点だった。Airbnbはホスピタリティに直接入る——代替宇宙ではAirbnbはホテル予約ソフトの小さなブティックだ。ブライアン・チェスキーはホテルと直接競争すると決めた。UberとLyftは昔ならタクシー配車ソフト、今はフルの交通提供者。Teslaは昔なら自動運転ソフト、今は車全体を作る。Facebookも同じで、オンライン広告ソフトをメディア会社に売るのではなく、メディア会社そのものになる。

バレーの野心がツールから既存産業へ直接入るに変わったピボット点だった。だからVCファームをスケールする必要がある——会社がスケールするからだ。AIでそれは結晶的に明らかになった。勝つAI企業は数十億、数百億、場合によっては数千億ドルを調達する。1000万、3000万、5000万ドルの小切手でVCがタップアウトする古い世界は、もう関係ない。

EN

That's right. And the previous real attempt to start a car company in the US before Tesla in the in the preceding decades was Tucker or something. Tucker Automotive.

センラ#65

ファームを創業した時点でスケールが変わるとわかっていた?

EN

Yeah, yeah, Tucker. Which was such a disaster that they made a movie called Tucker, which is about what a disaster it was. Um and so like this obviously you don't do that obviously this is insane. And for a software guy to do this is insane. Oh by the way, this is only one of the things he's doing. He also has the rocket company. Yeah. Which is also insane, right? And so yeah, so it it's like the the and I wouldn't like by the way I didn't see it. I and I did I was you know, I'm a software guy and I just I was like I don't know whatever he's going to go I guess he's going to go do cars. I don't know anything about cars. So it's not like I saw it. But I'm just saying like it like the the level of incredulity that he was greeted with at the time was I think almost uniform. Um and you know, there's that famous photo the most famous Elon photo I think or the the most the most powerful one is the one where he's young Elon probably 2005 or whatever and he's He's in the shorts and polo and all and he's like crouched down and there's nothing but the explosion remains of the third rocket the second or third rocket. The one he'd been funding personally like

アンドリーセン#66

かなり良いアイデアはあった。Facebookに始まりから非公式に関わり、2007年から正式にボードにいた。曲線の膝に当たるのを見た。インターネット1.0企業が到達したよりずっと大きくなるのが明白だった。Appleが携帯電話市場に直接入ったのもその頃だ。シリコンバレーは携帯を作らなかった——ソニーやノキアやモトローラのような巨大産業企業が作り、バレーはチップやソフトを作った。スティーブは「いや、携帯を作る」と言った。シグナルがあった。インターネット自体も成熟し、コンシューマーインターネットは15年、世界のインターネット普及が10億ユーザーを超え50億へ向かう頃だった。

EN

Yes. Did you ever read Eric Berger's book Liftoff?

センラ#67

君はインターネットのごく最初にいた生きた経験がある。ポッドキャストでほとんど聞いたことがない話を最初に聞こうと思っていた——ジム・クラークとのパートナーシップと関係。会ったとき何歳だった? 20?

EN

Yeah, I did. Oh, you got to read it. I'm surprised you haven't. Um it's the it's only only focuses I like these company histories that focus on like the first like 6 years.

アンドリーセン#68

旧式で、大学を卒業して学位を取った。今では石器時代の概念だ。1994年、だいたい22歳だった。

EN

Yep. And just stops.

センラ#69

マイケル・ルイスが書いたシリコンバレーの本がある。君は好きじゃないと思うが、僕は二度読んだ。この非常にエキセントリックな人物の肖像がめちゃくちゃ面白い。若い創業者に話すと、史上初めて別々の10億ドル技術企業を3つ創業した人なのに、ほとんど誰も知らない。どう会って、どんな仕事だった?

EN

Yep. Um it's the first 6 years history of SpaceX.

アンドリーセン#70

彼が誰かは正確に知っていた。最初の会社シリコン・グラフィックス(SGI)は、だいたい1987から1994頃、バレーの「あの会社」だった。今で言うGoogleやOpenAIみたいな。業界でいちばん賢い人がみんなそこで働きたがり、想像できるいちばんクールなプロダクトを作り、信じられないほど若く活力ある文化があった。そして1992年頃、映画ビジネスでコンピュータグラフィックスが本当に効き始めた文化的瞬間が来た。バック・トゥ・バックで『ジュラシック・パーク』と『ターミネーター2』——彼らが作ったマシンと技術の上に。ジムが発明した技術が可能にした。画面上の恐竜を見たときの鳥肌を今も覚えている。しかもSGIのコンピュータは映画の中にも出る——子供がUnixをナビゲートするシーンだ。

遺産はNvidiaに生きている。Nvidiaは基本的にSGIを一ひねりしたもので、GPUをやるには新しい会社が必要だった。Nvidiaの根本はジムのアイデアに基づいている。彼はすでに伝説で、フルセットだった——コンピュータサイエンスのPhDで、オリジナルのインタラクティブ3Dグラフィックス・オン・チップ(リアリティエンジン)を自分で発明し、会社を始め、会社を動かした。それからVCがプロマネージャーを入れた。今日Nvidiaを知ってSGIを知らないのは、この創業者−マネージャー問題のせいだ。

EN

Yep. And it's just nothing good in the book. It's just reading one failure after another after another and one catastrophe after another after another. It's a great read.

センラ#71

その話をしよう。覚えていない部分がある。

EN

When my kid was five he loved rockets and so his favorite rocket video was the compilation of all the SpaceX rocket explosions. Do you know Elon talks about this that before his friends when after he sold them to he had I think he had like 180 I think the story he tells is like 180 million after taxes. He said, "I'm going to do this rocket company." One of his I think a day or Rossi or I forgot what the friend sat him down and they made him watch all the rocket there was a compilation this is probably pre-YouTube of just rockets blowing up over and over again. Like no, you're literally going to light your fortune on fire. It's going to explode in the sky. Yeah, exactly. So I mean obviously it's working, right? So so so so his method obviously is working and it's obviously working like far better than I mean it's certainly working far better than anybody else's method in cars and certainly working better than anybody else's method in rockets. Um and then in in a bunch of other areas also. So like it's clearly working and so it's like okay, there you know, and then he he just draws because of just who he is and what he's doing and how he does it, you know, he just he draws so much heat, you know, there's just so much the environment is just full of criticism and attacks, you know, just non-stop and you know, we you all we all kind of get sucked into these these narratives. But I I think that I think the key thing is just the for me it's just like okay, like there is a method there that he has been working on and refining for you know, coming up 30 years that has worked better better than anybody's method. Like I don't know like I said, I don't know how many people can do it. And maybe there's just like a fundamental limitation, which is you can do it if you're Elon and you can't do it if you're somebody else. Uh or maybe you need to be above 30 milli Elons but not below or something like that, right? There maybe there's some threshold where you break through on this. Um but it it is clearly the best method. Like it clearly is generating the best results. Um and then and then again con con con conceptually I like it cuz it it again it's this bridging of the of the of the founder mentality with the manager mentality cuz he's not just doing these are not just one-offs. He's scaling every everything is scaling. What is it? Starlink just hit what was the number? Starlink just hit 10 was it million subscribers? I'm one of them. Something like that. Exactly, right? You probably have read about um uh Iridium and Teledesic. No. Oh, okay. Okay. So Elon was not the first guy who said we're going to do satellite based like internet access. Um there there were there was there was there was a Bill Gates Craig McCaw and so when Microsoft was on top of the world and McCaw Craig McCaw basically built cell cellular telephony in the US, built what's now AT&T mobile. Um uh those guys teamed up in the early 90s and did this thing called Teledesic where they put up you know, satellite based uh voice and then it was going to be internet internet access. Complete catastrophe, total bankruptcy, complete disaster. And then Motorola which used to make all the cell phones in the US uh had the had another one system that actually still called Iridium. And again it's just like this classic business school case study of just complete disaster, capital destruction. And so Elon's like, "I know, I'm going to do number three of those." With Starlink as a side project at the rocket ship company. Yeah. Right? Cuz he's like I we're going to and you know, in retrospect it's total genius cuz he's like we're going to be putting up the if the rockets are reusable we're going to be launching them all the time. And then the question becomes what's going to go in the rockets? And he's like I can wait for the customers to come to me with more stuff to put in the rockets or I could just put up my own satellites. What would be the satellite to put up? Oh, it would be consumer grade, you know, consumer priced internet access. And it's just like okay, anybody who knew anything about the history of like satellites knew that that's like the crazy you know, that's that's the new craziest idea in the world. And of course it's like you know, this like you know, giant success. It's like the side it's like the side project. There's clearly method. It clearly incorporates invention. It clearly incorporates scale. It it it does a brilliant job of both of those. It's it's clearly in part the Henry Ford whatever Alexander the Great method clearly, but there's also like real scale and heft to it. SpaceX now is building you know, they got their own city like you know, Texas, right? And so it it it's a formula that that captures both sides of it. And it it it maybe like the least studied and understood thing I know of in the world right now. It's incredible. Mark, we're running out of time. When I started this show, you were at the top of my list for one of the guests I wanted to talk to you. Thank you so much for doing this. I hope you come back in a few months cuz there's a million other things we need to talk about.

アンドリーセン#72

両側がある。僕は現場にいなかったので反射的にジム・クラーク側だが、両側を表そうとする。ジムはイーロン/スティーブ・ジョブズ級——信じられないほど創造的で明るくカリスマだが、揮発性でエキサイティング。周りにいると常に何か新しい。当時「この性格タイプは明らかに会社を動かせない」と思われていた。

VCはHPかIBMのどちらかで訓練されたゼネラルマネージャーを連れてきた。非常にシャープな人で、このタイプの良い例だった。彼の下で会社は巨大にスケールした。1987〜88頃に引き継ぎ、94年にバレーに来たとき会社は巨大になっていた。動かしている人には少なくともその功績の一部がある。

でも古典的な戦いが起きた。創業者が「やり方を完全に変えなきゃ」と言い、CEOが「今うまくいっている。いじるな」と言う。創業者「今はうまくいっているが未来はうまくいかない」。CEO「未来になったら対処する」。創業者「未来が来たときには遅すぎる」。マネージャー「金を稼がせてくれているのに、なぜパンツに入ってくる」。それがデッドロックだった。

ジム・クラークはシリコン・グラフィックスの創業者として二つの予測をした。だいたい1991年頃だ。第一に、今日5万ドルで売っているものはチップに乗り、カードに乗り、PCに乗り、300ドルになる。それを作る会社になるか、破壊されるかだ——それがNvidiaで実際に起きた。完全に正しかった。

第二に、スタンドアロンコンピュータのアイデアは続かない。コンピュータはすべてネットワークされ、ネットワークが重要になる。当時は情報スーパーハイウェイ、ビデオオンデマンド、500チャンネルなど、インターネットになる概念が融合しつつあった。インターネットがメインストリームになる前から、ジムは「全部つながるのは不可避で、コンピュータの機能は単独で何をするかではなく、他のコンピュータと話せることにある。それをやらなきゃ」と言っていた。

そのために日本へ行き、任天堂と信じられないディールをした——任天堂64のコンシューマーゲーム機向けオリジナル3DグラフィックスチップをSGIが実際に作った。タイム・ワーナーともディールし、インタラクティブTV——1991年のNetflix前——をやろうとした。すごい先見だ。でもCEOと衝突し、「やっていることに集中しなきゃ。それはやらない」と。ジムは古典的創業者として去った。

会ったとき彼の状態はこうだった——人生の全盛期で、アイデアは山ほどある。次の会社はハードではなくソフトで、世界で起きている変化を先取りできなきゃいけない。シリコン・グラフィックスはそれをできる会社ではない——そのことに彼は非常に悲しんでいた——だから新しい会社を建てなきゃいけない、と。

---

EN

Good. Awesome. Fantastic. Thank you. I hope you enjoyed this episode. Please remember to subscribe wherever you're listening and leave a review. And make sure you listen to my other podcast Founders. For almost a decade, I've obsessively read over 400 biographies of history's greatest entrepreneurs searching for ideas that you can use in your work. Most of the guests you hear on this show first found me through Founders.

センラ#73

彼と働くのがどんなだったかもっと聞きたかったが、ブログアーカイブに非常に鋭い観察がある。創業者に採用が始まり——永遠に——いちばん重要で、どれだけ難しいかを過小評価している、と教える投稿だ。ジム・クラークの話を出して「この人は伝説だ。最も有名で最良の起業家だ。100人くらいに声をかけたのに、実際にチャンスを取ってついてきて働き始めたのは2、3人だけで、君はその一人だった」と。

アンドリーセン#74

ザッカーバーグやセルゲイ・ブリンやイーロンが会社を始める、というキャンドルパワー/ワット数だった。だから「ジム・クラークが君と会社を始めたい」と言われたら普通はYesと言うと思う。そうはならなかった。いちばん鮮明な記憶は、パロアルトの有名なイタリア料理店El Fornaioでの12人の夕食だ。多くの会社がそこで生まれ、当時ジムの好きな店だった。

SGIとの非勧誘契約があったから、人を引き抜くわけにいかなかった。それを破りたくなかった。技術コミュニティに手を伸ばして新しい協力者を探す必要があった。12人くらいがいた。その夕食を正確に覚えている理由が二つある。一つは、12人のうちYesと言ったのは基本的に僕だけだったこと。もう一つは、人生で初めて赤ワインを飲んだことだ。好きかどうかわからずちびちび飲み続け、キャリブレーションの仕方がわからず完全に酔っ払っているのに気づかなかった。

本当のバージョンは、夕食を出て「すごい。Yesと言う。やろう」と駐車場の車——人生初の新車——に乗り、フロントエンド全体を引きちぎったことだ。金属の悲鳴。車の前部が地面にぶら下がっている。「くそ」。車を止めて降りて歩いて帰った。Uberなんてない。夜11時、赤ワイン6本分で1マイル歩いて、22歳。ジムには言わない方がいいと思った。

センラ#75

あの本にはワイルドな話がたくさんある。むしろ感心されたかも。会社の創業者は最初二人だけ? 君と彼?

アンドリーセン#76

最初は彼と僕で会社を始めた。何をするか長い会話があった。問題は、グラフィックスチップをやるアイデアはあったが、それはNvidiaがやったことで、Nvidiaは本質的にSGIのスピンオフだ。ゼロから新しいチップ会社を始めるのは当時厳しく、SGIと競争したくもなかった。インタラクティブTVはまだ時期ではなく、Netflixの時期でもなく、コストが法外だった。タイム・ワーナーがオーランドで500人にインタラクティブTVをロールアウトし、MicrosoftやOracleも関わっていたが、家にSGIワークステーションが要るので戸あたりCAPEXが5万ドルとかで動かなかった。

たくさんのアイデアを回した。任天堂に戻り、1994年に任天堂64向けのオンラインゲームサービス——今で言うXbox LiveやPlayStation Network——をほぼトリガーしそうになった。良いアイデアだったかもしれない。早すぎると思った。ほぼやった。そして文字どおり起きたのがインターネットだった。大学でインターネットに取り組んでいた。

センラ#77

待って、マーク。インターネットに「少し」取り組んでいた、は控えめすぎる。どう取り組んでいたか説明すべきだ。

アンドリーセン#78

当時はそんなに大きな話ではなかった。今見られるほどではない。何度も話したので細部は省くが、イリノイのグループでMosaic——最初の広く使われたWebブラウザ、グラフィックス付きの最初のもの——をやった。

センラ#79

以前にあったものと何が違った?

アンドリーセン#80

以前のWebブラウザはテキストベースで、初期的なWeb概念はあったがテキスト端末みたいで、グラフィックスがなく、ポイント&クリックでもなく、こういうソフトが動くべきやり方では動かなかった。スクリプト言語もセキュリティもなく、ブラウザを有用にする実際の能力がなかった。初期的アイデアをフルなものに建てる必要があった。イリノイでオリジナルのフルブラウザを作り、人々が必要とするものを持つ最初の主流Webサーバも作った。大学のプロジェクトで、当時インターネットはコンシューマー現象とは見られていなかった。

センラ#81

商用化は違法では? AOLのスティーブ・ケースがロビーして法律を変えさせた話がある。

アンドリーセン#82

そのとおり。今日知るインターネットは1980年代にNSFnetと呼ばれていた。NSFはNational Science Foundation——米国政府の研究資金部門。NSFがインターネットに資金を出した。イリノイでその仕事ができたのは、NSFが全米4大学にスーパーコンピュータセンターを建てる金を投入し、それらがNSFnetの主要ハブだったからだ。機能はスーパーコンピュータを使う人につなぐこと。政府の研究・学術プログラムで、技術分野では非常にエキサイティングだったが、普通の人がこれを使うという概念はなかった。

納税者資金なので、政府はビジネスを直接資金提供しない建前があり、商用アプリケーションへの資金には正式な法的制限があった。AUP(Acceptable Use Policy)があり、NSFnet/インターネットは学術・研究用途で、商用活動は厳格に禁止——文字どおり許されない。納税者としては筋が通るが、ユーザーとしては明らかにおかしい。これがラボから出て普通の人が使うものになる、という概念的飛躍をすれば、商用活動が必要になるのは明白だった。

センラ#83

AOLは初期のプリインターネット・オンラインサービスで、1993年にインターネットに接続した。エターナル・セプテンバーの概念は知ってる?

アンドリーセン#84

知らない。

センラ#85

二つのインターネットがある。1993年より前と後。1993年より前にいた人はしばしばユートピア的に語る——世界でいちばん賢い100万人をネットワークに載せ、商用活動も広告もなく会話させる。Usenetの議論は壮絶で、紀元前500年のアテネ以来いちばん純粋で知的に活気ある空間みたいだった。そこにAOLが100万〜200万人の普通の人を1993年9月に接続した。それがエターナル・セプテンバー——インターネットが変わった日だ。僕はそれに賛成で、起きてよかったと思う。でも象牙の塔からメインストリームの普通の人のものへ変わった。根本的に違うものだ。

セプテンバー効果は、毎年新しい大学卒業生が就職してオンラインに来るサイクルが何度も繰り返され、「9月に全部壊れる」と毎回言われていた、という話でもある。今日のインターネットは30回のセプテンバーの結果だ。

アンドリーセン#86

当時、AUPを撤回すべきか、普通の人が乗るべきか、普通の人が望むコンテンツを許すべきか、画像をWebページに入れるべきか(ノーミーコンテンツで全部悪くなるという理論で、画像を入れた僕らはかなり攻撃された)、eコマース、広告——全部熱い論争だった。1992年頃、サンフォード・ウォレス——Spamford Wallace——がUsenetに最初のスパムメッセージを落として熱核爆発が起きた。「この商用ゴミをニュースフィードから出せ」。

僕はだいたいこれらの議論の反対側にいた。「これは素晴らしい。明らかにみんなアクセスすべき。みんなつなぐべき。そのためにはビジネスが要る。コマースが要る。広告が要る。全部明らかに起きるべきだ。」

センラ#87

それがジムとの議論で、「これから実際の会社を始める」になった?

アンドリーセン#88

そうやってジムとの会話に至った。まさにピボット点——AUPが撤回された直後、AOLが最初のセプテンバーをした直後、全体が傾きそうな1994年初頭。僕は知っていた。ブラウザのテクサポを個人でやっていたからだ。

センラ#89

説明して。

アンドリーセン#90

僕一人だ。当時Mosaicはみんなが使うブラウザで、「バグ報告/質問はここ」に出すとメールボックスに入り、それが僕だった。3年くらいインターネットのテクサポになった。全部のメールが来た。

センラ#91

何通くらい?

アンドリーセン#92

実際二つあった。一つはテクサポ。もう一つは、MosaicもNSF資金で、オリジナルライセンスは商用利用不可——学術・研究・個人用途だった。意図的に曖昧なライセンスを書き、「商用で使いたいなら条件を取り決めるためにメールせよ」とした。条件の概念はまったくなかったが、収入ストリームを作る必要があった。テクサポで爆撃され——インターネットのテクサポは全部のテクサポだから、古いPCのCD-ROMトレイをカップホルダーだと思ってコーヒーを置き、10秒後に引っ込みこぼれて「どうやってカップホルダーを出したままにする?」とマークにメールする、みたいなのが山ほどあった。

もう一つのメールボックスは商用ライセンス依頼で、コンシューマーの立ち上がりと、金を払いたいという約400メッセージを見た。それをジムに持っていき「ビジネスがある」と言った。NCSAの古い上司と1993年にワシントンへ行き、サポートデスクをスタッフするためのNSF資金を取りに行った。NSFの人はとても親切で「NSFは君のソフトのカスタマーサポートデスクに金を出す事業ではない」と言った。拒否されたNSFグラントがまだある。その時点でジムと僕には、それがビジネスになるのは明白だった。Netscapeの最初の1年の報道は「この人たちは金を稼げない。インターネットは無料だとみんな知っている」だった。論争的だった。

センラ#93

ビジネスモデルは? ライセンスだけ?

アンドリーセン#94

組み合わせだ。ソフトライセンスは確実にあり、ブラウザは無料だがサーバソフトは有料にした。最初からサーバサイドアプリケーションを作り始めた——オンラインで新聞や雑誌を動かす最初のパブリッシングシステム/CMS、Amazon前の最初のeコマースシステムなど。ブラウザのデフォルトホームページとしてのメインサイトも持ち、オリジナルのインターネット広告ビジネスを建てた。Netscapeはだいたい1997年まで最大のインターネット広告会社だった。Yahoo前だ。広告はYahoo前、eコマースはAmazon前、コンテンツも——Wall Street Journalをオンラインにしたのは僕らのソフトだ。他の新聞雑誌もたくさん。

振り返ると全部明白に見えるが、1994年4月に会社を始めたとき、オンラインの総数は200万人もいなかったはずだ。ほぼ全員ダイヤルアップ。ブロードバンド前。14.4キロビットモデムで入ってきて、56キロビットへのアップグレードを願っていた。当時のコンピュータにはTCP/IPがインストールされていなかった。PCをインターネットに乗せるにはTCP/IPスタックを買う必要があり、普通の人間にTCP/IPスタックが何かを説明するのは火星人と話すみたいだった。

センラ#95

カップホルダーの隣に置けるか聞く、と。

アンドリーセン#96

まさに。モニターは3フィートの深さで放射線を浴びせている。eコマース——オンラインでものを買うか? わからない、たぶん。当時の報道は壁一面「クレジットカード番号をオンラインに載せたらハッカーが盗む」だった。

センラ#97

当時の本を読むと「インターネットにクレカを載せる人なんて絶対いない」と書いてある。

アンドリーセン#98

本物の名前をオンラインに載せることも絶対にやってはいけなかった——即アイデンティティ窃盗で人生が終わる。子供へのリスクのパニックも最初からあった。検閲の声も。数字は全部でっち上げで誰もオンラインにいない、という話も走っていた。振り返ると牧歌的でかわいいが、技術をめぐるモラルパニックの前駆だった。

センラ#99

新しいものへの人間の反応が歴史を通じて一貫している、という話を君と僕は同じ本で読んできた。ポッドキャストで君が「バイシクルフェイス」の話をしたのを聞いた。プライベートでしか言わないと思っていた。何?

アンドリーセン#100

バイシクルフェイス。基本的にあらゆる新しい技術はモラルパニックで迎えられる。新しい技術や新しいメディア形態が全部を壊し、社会を壊し、道徳を壊し、とくに子供を壊す。フェミニズム前だから女性も壊す、と非常に具体的に。1880年の女性は自転車を信用して使えない、というわけだ。

一貫したテーマだ。プラトンとソクラテスは書記言語が大きな間違いで、情報伝達は口頭であるべきだと考えていた——紀元前500年。火を山から持ってきた最初の男は殺されただろう——村を燃やす、全部壊す、と。Pessimist's Archiveというサイトがあって、同時代の新聞記事を掘り起こしている。子供の頃のヘビーメタル、ダンジョンズ&ドラゴンズ、ウォークマン(みんな自分の音楽だけ聞いて社会が壊れる)、電卓(子供が算数を学ばなくなる)。50年代は漫画とロックンロール。20年代はジャズとトランプとペーパーバック小説。何度も何度も同じ物語だ。

自転車は1870〜80年に出てくる。米国はまだ薄く人口が分布し、町と村が散らばっていて、隣町まで5、10、15マイル。普通は歩かない。自転車で5マイルが簡単になり、若い人が隣町に自分と育っていない若い人がいることを発見する。若い男性もだが、とくに若い女性が自転車を始めた。町の男にとって、魅力的な若い女性が丘の向こうの隣町へ自転車で向かうのは大きな問題だ。報道は「バイシクルフェイス」を作った——若い女性は自転車を使うな、というモラル講義の一部。自転車で力むと力み顔になり、やりすぎると顔が永遠にバイシクルフェイスで固まり、夫が見つからない、と。文字どおりそう思われていた。

センラ#101

音楽はいつも良い例だ。90〜2000年代のヒップホップのモラルパニック。隣人のジミー・アイオヴィンが2週間前にここにいて、マスタードガスやジェノサイドと比較された——ヒップホップに金を出して白人の子供が聞き始めている、と。議会公聴会の前で。冗談じゃなかった。コングロマリットから追い出された。

アンドリーセン#102

そのとおり。音楽ビジネスにはいないが、ヒップホップは今やあまりにノーマライズされて、今日では思いつきもしない。文化現象としてはむしろフェードすらしている。当時は超激しかった。ロックンロールは50〜60年代に超激しかった。

センラ#103

エルヴィス・プレスリー——腰を振るから、これからは腰から上だけTVに、と。

アンドリーセン#104

そのとおり。でも好きなのはジャズだ。1920〜30年代、ジャズについてまったく同じことが言われた。子供を腐敗させる。集まってジャズで踊り、そのあと何が起きるか。ジャズミュージシャンがポットを吸っているから子供も吸う、と。同じ物語の繰り返しだ。

公平に言うと、社会が変わらないわけではない。挙げた技術の多くは社会を変えた。自転車の前後、車の前後、現代文化やロックンロールの前後で違う。でもモラルパニック—— outright な世界の終わりパニック——は繰り返しだ。そしてこれは新聞を売る明白なやり方だ。プレスのメタ物語——起きていることは恐ろしく最悪で全部殺す。明日も新聞を買ってくれ。

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センラ#105

ジム・クラークに戻りたい。彼は君よりだいたい20歳上だった?

アンドリーセン#106

だいたいそうだ。

センラ#107

20代前半であの人と働けた教育はすごい。今も使っている学びは?

アンドリーセン#108

たくさんある。非常に形成的だった。君が前に言った「世界は可塑性がある」のウルトラ版がジムだった。アイデアがほぼいつも正しく、世界を殴りつけて信じさせた。自然の完全な力である、というアイデア。

可塑性だったのは彼自身でもある。あの本で「38歳の自称ルーザー」と呼ぶ名言がある。PhDが二つあって教授だったのに、2度目か3度目の離婚のあとある日パチンと切れ、「何かを達成したいという否定できない衝動で目覚めた」と。学術から創業者へ行き、何十年も会社を次々立てた。自分も可塑性だと気づき、何度も自分を再発明した。会社を始めるだけでなく、インタラクティブコンピュータグラフィックスを発明し、分野を完全に変え、間接的にハリウッドを完全に変えた。

センラ#109

採用やマネジメントや会社の動かし方で、他に?

アンドリーセン#110

当時の二人のメンターは、ある意味正反対だった。いつも仲良くやっていたが正反対だ。二人ともジム——ジム・クラークとジム・バークスデール。クラーク側の性格は意志の力——世界を殴りつけて自分が欲しいことをさせる。創造性の泉であれ。新しいアイデアはたくさんある、見つけに行け。プロとしての不満の感覚——グラフィックスを売って成功した多くの創業者はそこで終わり、30年コーストしてクレジットを取る。ジムは少なくともその時期、生産的でポジティブな意味で不満で、「もっと良い、もっと大きな、新しいことをやるべきだ」と言い続けた。

ジム・バークスデールはもう一方で、昨日もミシシッピ州ジャクソンで一緒にいた。マネージャーのマネージャーだ。クラークは先ほど言ったブルジョワ資本主義——ヘンリー・フォード/イーロン・マスク型——の究極例で、バークスデールはスーパーマネージャーの究極例だ。IBM、AT&T、Federal Expressの大きな部分を動かしてからNetscapeを動かした。興味深いのは、両方に同時に訓練され、両方のメンタリティの違いを非常に明確に観察でき、同時にどう収束するかを見られたことだ。創造性の泉だけでは大きなものは建てられない。マネジメントだけでは新しいことをしない。

センラ#111

歴史上の良い例は? 創造性の泉としてのニコラ・テスラ? ジョージ・ウェスティングハウスが商業化を手伝った、みたいな。テスラ対エジソン?

アンドリーセン#112

僕はエジソン派だ。イーロンは当然テスラ派だが、イーロン自身が今や突出したマネージャーになり、まったく新しいマネジメントの学校を発明しているとすら思う。誰もそう思わないのに、おそらく我々の時代で最高のマネージャーだ。

イーロンはテスラよりエジソンに近いと思う。すべてが小さな道徳劇になる。基本物語は、テスラはアイデアはあるが商業化できず、金にできず、大きな会社を建てられなかった。エジソンは伝説ではよりグラインダーで、電球のフィラメントを発明するとき何千通りも試すブルートフォースで、でもゼネラル・エレクトリックを建て、全国電力網を建て、巨大企業を建てた。J.P.モルガンに資金を出してもらった——余暇のベンチャーキャピタリストとして。映写機も発明し、蓄音機も発明し、何年も特許を執行しようとした。

センラ#113

蓄音機の用途について彼が何と思っていたか、本でも読んだ。話すべきだ。

アンドリーセン#114

少し脱線だが性格の話に効く。人は「新しい技術の結果は? 発明した人に聞け。当然知っているはずだ」と思う。AIの先駆者が報道でインタビューされ「AIの未来を教えて」と言われ、ジェフリー・ヒントン——自称社会主義者——は「急速な失業と全員へのUBI」と言う。社会主義者の答えが共産主義だなんてすごい偶然だ。でもAIの発明者の一人だから知っていると思われている。

いつも語るのはエジソンの話だ。トマス・エジソンは非常にきちんとしたWASPで、その時代の極めて適正な紳士、いつも完璧に着て、倫理的で立派な市民で、非常に信心深かった。だからレコードプレーヤーの用途は明白だった——みんながレコードプレーヤーを買い、その時代の偉大な説教師の説教のディスクのライブラリを買い、長い仕事のあと夜家で妻と子供を集めて説教を聞く、と。もちろんレコードプレーヤーが落ちると即座に音楽だ。ラグタイムやジャズ。エジソンは完全にhorrifiedだった。窓に蓄音機を置いて良い音楽を流せば、自転車の女の子が集まってくるとは知らなかった。バイシクルフェイス付きで。

ポイントは、エジソンが蓄音機の用途を知らなかったなら、どんなAI起業家が経済的含意を予測できると思うな、ということだ。技術を発明する人はしばしば長期含意を理解するのにいちばん資格がない——今ここの細部に埋もれすぎている。文化・社会・経済の大きな問いであり、大きなトレンドを予測できる人がいるかもわからないが、ラボに20年いた人——自分を含めて——ではない。

センラ#115

二人のジムが正反対だったことから大きく恩恵を受けた、と。密に一緒に働いて。仲良くやれていた?

アンドリーセン#116

公に話したかどうか知らないが話す。とても仲良く、非常に良い友人になった。二人とも僕がやったすべてのことに責任がある。でも違うディシプリン、違う世界観で、油と水の側面がある。クラークが最初の約9ヶ月会社を動かした——インターネット時間ではもっと長く感じたが、高度に圧縮された9ヶ月だった。新しいことを100個やっていて素晴らしかったが、何もシステム化されていなかった。マネジメント成分なしでは大きな会社にならない。

バークスデールが入ってきて「発明は素晴らしいが、システムとスケジュールとプロセスが要る。ビジネスとして動かさなきゃ」と言った。創業者としてクラークは最初少しフラストレーションだった——最新アイデアに会社全体を向けられない。バークスデールのスタッフミーティングにまだクラークが来ていた頃、バークスデールが「この新しいことはやらない。うまくいっていることを続ける」と言い、クラークがネガティブに反応した。バークスデールが「外で話せる?」と。

二人からあとで聞いた話だが、クラークが「ここにいる理由は新しいことをやるからだ。やらなければ会社を壊す」と言い、バークスデールがミシシッピの深いドローで真正面から「Jim, I hear you. This is as serious as dick cancer.」と言った。クラークが顔を見据え、バークスデールが笑い、それ以来ずっと仲良く、愛し合っている。バークスデールが言っていたのは、超熱した情熱の状態で決定をしない、完全な会話はするがより長く冷静なやり方で、という瞬間のストレスをパンクチャーすることだ。あのフレーズは何度か使った。クラークはヒステリックに面白いと思った——誰もあんな話し方をしたことがなかった。

クラーク側は「SGIで起きたことの再現だ」と恐れていた部分もあっただろう。でもバークスデールは「新しいアイデアを止める時だ」という立場を取ったことはなく、「新しいアイデアをビジネスに通さなきゃ」——二つのハイブリッド——だった。

センラ#117

聞いていて思った。ベンとのパートナーシップも、彼がよりバークスデールで君がよりクラーク?

アンドリーセン#118

少し混ぜているが、そういうところはある。彼がファームを動かし、僕は新しいアイデアを出す傾向がある(彼もたくさん出すが)。その種の議論は頻繁にある。

センラ#119

知らないうちにカメラで一日を追ったら、どんな一日? アイデアの泉? 当時のジム・クラークみたいな制御不能エネルギー?

アンドリーセン#120

両方持っている。両方が訓練してくれたからだ。ベンは今30年一緒に働いている。本当に問題ならそのパートナーシップは続かない。かなり強い内部編集機能がある、と彼は言うと思う。

センラ#121

未編集を見たい。

アンドリーセン#122

未編集は本当に楽しい。非常にdisruptiveでもある。キャリブレートしなきゃいけない。

センラ#123

未編集の面はいつ出す?

アンドリーセン#124

衝動的にはあまり出さない。イーロンやザッカーバーグも非常に上手い。エジソン/テスラに戻るが、組織——5人や10人以上、100、1000、1万、10万人——の責任があるとき、毎日プランを変えられない。全員を焼き尽くし、混乱させて辞めさせる。キャリブレートされた中間が要る。

1人や2〜3人のビジネス成功の例は少しある——Bitcoin、Minecraft、WhatsApp、Instagram——それから例が尽きる。AIでは一人会社がもっと増えるかもしれない。芸術家や小説家は違う——小説家は好きなことをやっていい。でも映画監督は撮影中の火曜にプロット全部を変えられない。300人が完成に頼っている。どんな分野でも組織があるなら、変化は起きるが測定されたやり方で起きるキャリブレーション/滴定プロセスが要る。毎日爆破はできない。

スケールしながらまだイノベートする組織の聖杯には、互いにバランスできる二人——スティーブ・ジョブズとティム・クック、初期のザッカーバーグとシェリル・サンドバーグ、初期のビル・ゲイツとスティーブ・バルマー——か、稀に一人でそれをやる人——ジェンセン・ファンがその例——が要る。ベンと僕には陰陽の側面がある。彼自身非常に創造的で、僕はバークスデール訓練があるから、だいたいの時間は自己統治がある。入っていって全部変えろと暴れ、ベンが「くそ、これは最悪だ」と言っても、良いところには行かない。だから自己編集をたくさんやる。

センラ#125

さっき言った——イーロンがマネジメントの新しいやり方を発明している、と信じている、と。アイデアの泉とシステマティックなビルダーの二つを調和させる最良のやり方を見つけたかもしれない。次の100年のコードを解いたかもしれない。観察したイーロンのマネジメントを分解して。

アンドリーセン#126

イーロンの方法は人々が前に記述してきた。彼と働くが外側からで、会社の中で働いたことはない。一層のインタラクションだが、かなり働き、非常に注意深く研究している。

極端な実体へのフォーカス、真実への極端なフォーカスだ。複層組織で気づくことの一つは、基本的に嘘が複利で増えることだ。その教訓を早く得たのは、IBMが世界での最大規模と重要性のピーク直前に働いていたからだ。

センラ#127

人はIBMがどれだけ大きく強力でほとんど独占だったか理解していない。

アンドリーセン#128

権力の絶頂、落ちる直前に働いた。最初の仕事で、大学の頃だ。80年代半ば、IBMはテック産業全体の時価総額の80%だった。近いものすらない。Googleの10倍、Appleの10倍みたいな、誰も持ったことのないスケールと重要性だ。『Halt and Catch Fire』の第1シーズンがうまく描いている——PCを事実上発明している連中のところにIBMが現れる瞬間。さっきのCIA/ファランクスの話みたいに、警察スーツの20人が完全に潰しに来る。圧倒的だ。

あらゆるものを発明し、業界は彼らなしでは今日存在しない。長いあいだ信じられない会社で、創業者が30年、創業者の息子が30年動かした。今日はあの頃ではないが、まだ大きく重要な会社で、1940から80年後も生き残っているテック企業はどれだけあるか。

好きなIBMの話は、トマス・ワトソン・シニアがIBMを始める前に反トラストで有罪だったことだ——キャッシュレジスター(NCR)を独占した罪で。IBMでメインフレームを独占し、また有罪になった。ダブルディッパーで、反トラスト法廷に慣れていた。ケビン・メイニーのワトソン伝があって、1940〜60年代の月曜朝の幹部スタッフミーティングを秘書がリアルタイムで書き起こしていたアーカイブを掘り起こし、トマス・ワトソンが全員を罵倒し、完全な専制的サイコパスのように人に叫んでいる記録が全部ある。イーロンやジョブズが責められることは、あの人がやっていたことの淡い版だ。

話を戻すと、IBMに関わったのはその60年後くらいで、権力のピークに近かった。中国で卒業後に働くか考えているとき、メインフレームのアプリに組織図があり、自分とCEOの間にマネジメントが12層あると計算した。上司の上司の上司の上司の上司が、さらに上司を何層も経てからCEO、という意味だ。

実際に間近で見たのは、各マネジメント層が上の層に嘘をついていることだ。良く見せたい、少しスピンをかけたい。一層ならまあいい。2〜3回起きると嘘は複利になる。6回で本当に複利。12回でCEOは何が起きているかまったく手がかりがない。IBMがそうだった。彼らは国家のような会社で、オースティンで一生IBM以外の人と会わずに生きられるくらいだった。「ビッグ・グレイ・クラウド」という概念があり、CEOについて回るグレーのビジネススーツの男たちの雲で、実際に仕事をしている誰ともCEOが話せないようにしていた。訪問は国王と移動宮廷の国賓訪問みたいで、情報に完全に不浸透だった。

それがイーロンのアプローチの正反対だ。1989年のIBMのCEOであることは素晴らしい生き方だった——朝起きると全部良いニュース。有名で金があり成功して、運転手とジェットとグレーのスーツ80人が全部やってくれて、エンジニアと話す必要がない。サンクスギビングの七面鳥みたいなもので、変化と問題が来るまで。来たら何をすべきかわからない。それが彼らに起きた。

イーロンのアプローチは文字どおり「エンジニアとだけ話す」。問題があるとき真実の源——何が起きているかを実際に知るエンジニア——にまっすぐ行く。問題があるとき、その問題に取り組むエンジニアのところへ行き、座って一緒に解くのを見た。テックのCEOで、偉大な人ですらそれをやる人はほぼいない。

センラ#129

なぜ誰もやらない?

アンドリーセン#130

まず巨大な面倒だからだ。人生が実際に全問題を解くことで埋まってしまう。大きく強力で成功するポイントは人に金を払ってやらせることなのに、自分がやっている。朝2時にやっている。最悪だ。だからほとんどの人はやらない。もう一つは、CEOにそれができるスキルセットが要ることだ。偉大なCEOであるだけでなく、偉大な技術者でなきゃいけない。昔プログラマーやチップデザイナーだった記憶があるだけでなく、木曜夜2時にオースティンでチップデザイナーと座って、チップの何がおかしいかを実際に特定できる。イーロンにはその能力があり、技術のあらゆる領域に百科事典的で、ロケット設計者からAI設計者までハンズオンできる。ほとんど誰のCEOにもそれはない。でもそれが文字どおり彼のやり方だ。

考え方としては、だいたい6社くらい動かしていて、どの週もすべてを生産ライン/生産プロセスとして見る。オールドスクールの産業家だ。どの生産プロセスにも常にボトルネックが一つある——プロセスをいちばん遅くしているもの。各社について生産プロセスをチャートし、モニターに全部並べ、今週生産を止めているのはこれだ、と言って、そのボトルネックをエンジニアと直す。毎週、各社で。だからTeslaが自動車産業の残りを劇的にアウトパフォームしてきた——Teslaのクリティカルな生産ボトルネックを年52回、本人が直しているからだ。レガシー自動車メーカーのCEOはそれをやっていない。普通の会社なら6ヶ月かかる問題を、今すぐ・明日で直したがる。そのループを何度も回す。絶対に疲れ知らずだ。

有名な時期、家を全部売って文字どおりカウチサーフィンしていた。地球上で最も成功した人の一人なのに。休暇用の家を「子供と一週間使っていい」とオファーしたら、夜11時に5分後「I don't take vacations.」の四語が返ってきた。こんなCEOはいない。CEOであるポイントはジェットで飛び回ることだ、普通は。

それをルーチンにする。各社で週1日、12〜14時間のストレッチでデザインレビューをやるが、エンジニアあたり5分だ。1時間に12回。10時間で120のデザインレビューを1日でやる。

センラ#131

1対1?

アンドリーセン#132

実際に座ったことはない。周りに他の人やリーダーもいると思う。気づいたのは、重要なもののポイントエンジニアが回ってきて5分プレゼンすることだ。うまくいっていればいい。うまくいっていなければ問題は何か、その問題のランクは? 生産ボトルネックか? そうなら、それが8時から朝2時までそのエンジニアと直すものになる。

軍事で言う機動戦だ。サイクルタイムが伝統的方法で動く誰よりはるかに速い。4時間対6ヶ月——比較すら難しいギャップだ。

スペースXで働いた人にどんな感じか聞いたら、「衝撃的なコンピテンスのゾーンに落とされたみたいだ」と言った。みんながウルトラコンピテント。理由の一つは、そうでなければイーロンが嗅ぎつけてクビにするから——実際に仕事をしている人と話しているから嗅げる。25年やってきてかなり速く嗅げる。もう一つは、世界で最良のエンジニアが彼の下で働きたいから——技術のピアとして一緒に働ける唯一のCEOだからだ。エンジニアとして、イーロン・マスクをエンジニアリングパートナーにロケットエンジンを設計するより良いことがあるか? 世界でいちばん賢い人が働きたいという信じられないポジティブセレクションがあり、切れない人はクビになる。

世界はこれを生の攻撃性に見るが、それ以上だ。深遠な挑戦を引き受け、問題を解き、誰も敵わない速度でやるために会社を最適化する非常にシステマティックなやり方だ。

課題は、イーロンがいれば全部うまくいく、ということだ。シリコンバレーの創業者向けメトリックが要ると思う——ミリイーロン。君は何ミリイーロンか。10ミリイーロンは素晴らしい。100ミリイーロンはイーロンの10%——fantastic。500ミリイーロンなら全額出す。ほとんどの人は1ミリイーロンか0.1ミリイーロンだ。出てくる問いは、クローンできない、エッセンスを瓶詰めできない。そのうち何を普通の人間に移植できるか。もっと若いときにどれだけ予測・認識可能か。

有名な例はマイケル・モリッツがパスした話だ。PayPalで金を作り、確執があって追い出されたが、イーロンがTeslaをピッチしたときパスした——トヨタを超えることは絶対ない、と。モリッツはクレジットに値するが、「やつの決意と痛み耐性を劇的に過小評価した」と言った。

アンドリーセン#133

その場にはいなかったので知らない。言うのは、ソフト起業家が車会社を建てるというアイデアだ。Teslaが始まったとき、米国で成功した新しい車会社は約100年なかった。1900〜1910年に約2000社できて生き残ったのは3社。その前の何十年の本当の試みはタッカーか何かで、映画『タッカー』になるほどの災害だった。明らかにやってはいけない、明らかに狂気。ソフトの奴がやるのは狂気。しかもそれがやっていることの一つだけで、ロケット会社もある——それも狂気。僕も見えなかった。ソフトの人間で「車やるらしい、車は知らない」と思った。当時彼を迎えた不信のレベルはほぼ一様だったと思う。

いちばん有名/強力なイーロン写真は、若いイーロンが2005年頃ショーツとポロでしゃがみ、個人資金で上げた2機目か3機目のロケットの爆発残骸しかない写真だ。

センラ#134

エリック・バーガーの『Liftoff』は読んだ? 最初の6年だけにフォーカスする会社史が好きで、止まっている。スペースXの最初の6年史で、本の中に良いことが何もない——失敗のあと失敗、破局のあと破局。最高の読み物だ。

アンドリーセン#135

読んだ。子供が5歳のときロケットが大好きで、好きなロケット動画がスペースXの爆発コンピレーションだった。イーロンが話す話では、友達に売却後、税後1億8000万くらいあったときにロケット会社をやる、と言い、友人の誰かがロケットが何度も爆発するコンピレーション——YouTube前——を見せた。「文字どおり財産に火をつけて空で爆発させる」と。まさに。

明らかに方法は動いている。車でもロケットでも、他の誰の方法よりはるかにうまく動いている。他の領域でも。明らかに動いている。彼が誰で何をどうやるかで熱を吸い、環境は批評と攻撃で満ち、みんなその物語に吸い込まれる。でもキーは、約30年磨き続けて誰の方法よりうまく働いた方法がある、ということだ。何人ができるかわからない。イーロンならできて他の人ならできない根本的限界かもしれない。30ミリイーロン以上が要る閾値があるかもしれない。でも明らかに最良の方法で、最良の結果を出している。

概念的に好きなのは、創業者メンタリティとマネージャーメンタリティの橋渡しだからだ。ワンオフではなく、すべてがスケールしている。Starlinkは1000万加入を超えた?

センラ#136

僕もその一人だ。

アンドリーセン#137

イリジウムとテレデシックを読んだことある? イーロンが衛星ベースのインターネットアクセスをやると言った最初の人ではない。マイクロソフトが世界のてっぺんにいた頃、ビル・ゲイツとクレイグ・マコー(米国セルラー電話を建て、今のAT&Tモバイル)が90年代初頭にテレデシックをやり、衛星ベースの音声とインターネットを上げようとした。完全な破局、全破産、完全災害。モトローラにもイリジウムという別システムがあり、ビジネススクールの古典的完全災害・資本破壊ケースだ。イーロンは「じゃあ3回目をやる」と言った。ロケット会社のサイドプロジェクトとしてStarlinkを。

振り返ると完全な天才だ——ロケットが再使用可能ならずっと打ち上げる。何を載せるか。顧客が来るのを待つか、自分の衛星を上げるか。どんな衛星? コンシューマー価格のインターネットアクセス。衛星の歴史を知る誰もが「世界でいちばん新しい狂気のアイデア」だと知っていた。もちろん巨大な成功で、サイドプロジェクトだ。

明らかに方法がある。発明を取り込み、スケールを取り込み、両方をbrilliantにやる。ヘンリー・フォード/アレキサンダー大王メソッドの部分もあるが、本物のスケールと重みもある。スペースXは今テキサスに自分の街を建てている。両方の側を捉える公式で、今世界でいちばん研究され理解されていないものかもしれない。すごい。

センラ#138

マーク、時間がなくなってきた。この番組を始めたとき、話したいゲストのリストのてっぺんに君がいた。やってくれてありがとう。数ヶ月後にまた来てほしい。話すべきことがあと百万ある。

アンドリーセン#139

いいね。最高だった。ありがとう。

---

FAQ

なぜ英語が「自動字幕ベース」なの? 公式の文字起こしは?

このページの英語は、YouTube が生成した automatic captions(ASR=音声認識) を yt-dlp で取得したものです。人手で整えた公式トランスクリプトではありません。

- 動画: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBVe3M2g_SA - 公式: https://www.davidsenra.com - ゲスト: Marc Andreessen(Netscape / a16z)

公式サイトにはエピソード要約・ショーノートがある場合がありますが、取得時点では全文の公式文字起こしは前提にしていません。

自動字幕の精度は? どこが壊れやすい?

インタビュー2人で比較的クリアですが、固有名詞・会社名・歴史用語・早口・罵倒語マスクで崩れます。

| 字幕に出やすい崩れ | おそらく正しい表記 | |---|---| | A16Z / a16z / Andreesen | Andreessen Horowitz(a16z) | | The Machiavellians / James Burnham | 『The Machiavellians』(James Burnham, 1940s) | | managerialism / bourgeois capitalism | マネジャリズム/ブルジョワ資本主義 | | Nolan Bushnell / Atari | ノーラン・ブッシュネル(アタリ) | | Bob Noyce / Traitorous Eight | ボブ・ノイス/反逆の8人(Fairchild→Intel) | | Michael Ovitz / CAA / phalanx | マイケル・オービッツ/CAA/ファランクス | | Jim Clark / Silicon Graphics / SGI | ジム・クラーク/SGI | | Jim Barksdale | ジム・バークスデール(Netscape CEO) | | Mosaic / NSFnet / AUP | Mosaic/NSFnet/Acceptable Use Policy | | eternal September | エターナル・セプテンバー(1993年 AOL 接続) | | bicycle face | バイシクルフェイス(19世紀モラルパニック) | | Teledesic / Iridium / Starlink | 衛星インターネットの先例と Starlink | | milli Elon | ミリイーロン(会話上の創業者強度メトリクス) | | Apploven / axon / Deal / deel / Ramp | AppLovin / AxonDeelRamp(スポンサー) |

日本語本文では多くを修正済み。英語欄は「音声の生ログ」に近く、引用の一次ソースは動画を優先してください。

日本語と英語は1対1で完全対応している?

していません。 日本語は読みやすさのためまとめ・整文。英語は字幕切れ目が細かい。話者(センラ/アンドリーセン)を手がかりに話題の塊として読むのが正しい使い方です。スポンサー読み上げ(Ramp、AppLovin/Axon、HubSpot、Deel)は日本語から省略しています。

上部トグルは何のため?

- 英語原文 ON/OFF … まず日本語だけ読みたい人向け(英語は約9.5px) - 英語を少し大きく … 対照精読用(約11px)

デフォルトは「日本語メイン・英語は極小」。

マーク・アンドリーセンとは?

Marc Andreessen(マーク・アンドリーセン) は、イリノイ大学で Mosaic(広く使われた初期グラフィカル Web ブラウザ)の中心人物の一人となり、Jim ClarkNetscape を共同創業。その後 Ben HorowitzAndreessen Horowitz(a16z) を共同創業したベンチャーキャピタリスト/起業家。本編では「世界は思っているよりずっと可塑性がある」というテーゼと、創業者主導・反停滞・技術楽観の立場が中心になる。

David Senra(センラ)とは?

起業家伝記を扱う Founders ポッドキャストで知られるホスト。本番組では創業者・投資家インタビューを行う。歴史上の起業家の伝記を数百冊読み、現代の創業者対話と接続するスタイル。本編ではオービッツ/CAA、バーナム、エジソンなど既読エピソードと横断的に話が進む。

「世界は可塑性がある」とは?

センラがスマホに保存しているアンドリーセンの一連の発言のひとつ(会話上の要約)。最大努力・ドライブ・エネルギーで何かを追求すれば、世界は思っているより簡単に周りを再調整する、というメッセージ。本編タイトルの核。アンドリーセン本人は外的インパクトだけでは朝4時に足りないとし、自己との競争・スキル拡張の物語を語る一方、その分析には内省/セラピーが要ると距離を置く。

内省ゼロ・サイケ・インパクト最適化とは?

- アンドリーセンは内省をできるだけ少なくし、過去にこだわると詰まる、と語る - 歴史上の大人物も近代的「内省・セラピー」文化(フロイト以降)以前はそうしなかった、という整理 - シリコンバレーでサイケを試して「平和になるが会社を辞める」パターンをヒューバーマンと議論 - ダニエル・エク流に「幸福ではなくインパクト」も認めるが、外在的動機と内在的動機を区別する

創業者 vs マネージャー/バーナムとは?

James Burnham『The Machiavellians』の整理(会話上):

1. ブルジョワ資本主義 — 創業者が会社を動かしドアに名前(Henry Ford → 今日の Elon Musk) 2. マネジャリズム — 1880–1920 頃に台頭した「交換可能なマネジメント技能」。経営スクール、創業者交代、コングロマリット

バーナムは大規模システムには訓練された管理者が必要と論じたが、アンドリーセンは変化が速い領域ではマネージャーは適応できないとし、スペースXの再使用ロケットを例に挙げる。a16z のコアテーゼは「創業者にマネジメントを教える方が、マネージャーに創業者を教えるより21世紀で重要物を作りやすい」。

a16z の創業ストーリーとバーベルとは?

- 2003–2004 頃、エンジェルがごく少数の時代に Ben と積極投資 - 創業者–VC 紛争の裁定に1日8時間取られ、「10万ドルではなく1000万ドルを書け」に至る - 約1年半の準備期間(Ben が HP で「産業奴隷」)に PE・ヘッジ・投資銀行・広告・CAA/オービッツを研究 - バーベル(中間の死): 超早期ライトなエンジェル/シード vs スケール・プラットフォーム。デパート(シアーズ等)が死に、ブティックと Amazon が残る構造の類推 - 2009 年のレガシー VC を「ローンウルフの部族」「内部で嫌い合い」「世代継承でダイナモが薄まる」と診断

Jim Clark / Mosaic / Netscape とは?

- Jim Clark: Silicon Graphics(SGI)創業者。Jurassic Park / T2 時代の 3D グラフィックス王者。GPU 時代の思想は Nvidia 側に続く、と語られる - 創業者–プロCEO 対立で SGI を去り、ソフト/ネットワーク側の次会社を模索 - アンドリーセンは El Fornaio の夕食でほぼ唯一 Yes と言い(赤ワイン初体験で新車を壊す話付き)、二人で Netscape を開始 - Mosaic → 広く使われた初期グラフィカルブラウザ。NSF 資金・学術ライセンスの制約 - NSFnet / AUP: 商用禁止の学術網 → 撤回と Eternal September(1993, AOL) でコンシューマー化 - Netscape: ブラウザ無料+サーバ有料、CMS/eコマース、Yahoo 前の最大ネット広告会社、など複数収益の組み合わせ(会話上)

二人のジム(Clark と Barksdale)とは?

- Clark: 創造・意志の力・常に新しいもの(ブルジョワ資本主義型) - Barksdale: IBM / AT&T / FedEx 出身の「マネージャーのマネージャー」。システム・スケジュール・プロセス - スタッフ会議での衝突を、Barksdale のミシシッピ弁の過激な一言で空気が抜け、以後親友、という逸話 - アンドリーセンは両方に同時訓練され、Ben との陰陽にも似た構造があると語る - 組織では「未編集のアイデアの泉」を毎日全社に適用すると壊れる → キャリブレーションが必要(Jobs–Cook、Zuck–Sandberg、Gates–Ballmer、稀に Jensen 一人など)

イーロンのマネジメント/ミリイーロンとは?

会話上の観察(社外からの関与・研究):

- 複層組織の嘘の複利を嫌い、IBM の 12 層と「ビッグ・グレイ・クラウド」を対極例に - 問題時は真実の源=担当エンジニアに直行し、一緒に解く - 各社を生産プロセスとして見、週次ボトルネックを本人が直す(年52回) - 1日 5 分×多数のデザインレビュー(会話上 120/日規模)→ 機動戦的サイクルタイム - 「I don't take vacations.」 - milli-Elon: その強度を移植できるか、という創業者評価の比喩 - Starlink は Teledesic / Iridium の「3回目」をロケット会社のサイドプロジェクトとして成功させた例

モラルパニック/バイシクルフェイスとは?

新技術・新文化が「社会・道徳・子供・女性を壊す」と迎えられる歴史パターン。書記言語批判、火、自転車、ジャズ、ロック、ヒップホップ、ウォークマン、電卓、漫画など。バイシクルフェイスは 19 世紀末、若い女性の自転車利用への報道上の脅し(力み顔が永久固定し結婚できない、等)。インターネット初期のクレカ恐怖・実名恐怖・子供パニックも同型として語られる。エジソンが蓄音機を「説教ライブラリ」だと思った話は、「発明者が長期用途を知らない」例。

スポンサー読み上げはなぜない?

学習用日本語対話では Ramp / AppLovin(Axon)/ HubSpot / Deel などのスポンサー枠を省略しています。英語自動字幕側には残っているため、日英を並べると英語だけ長い区間が出ることがあります。

対話本文・関連ファイルは?

- 対話本文: article-ja.md - 見た目: article-ja.html - 日英対照: article-bilingual.md - FAQ: FAQ-ja.md - メタ: meta.json(slug: marc-andreessen